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2012 Political Forecast: “Something unexpected” in the Year of the Black Water Dragon

January 30, 2012

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By Raïssa Robles

This Year 2012, or the Year of the Black Water Dragon, one Chinese horoscope predicts that “something unexpected will happen.”

That’s putting it mildly if applied to rapidly unfolding political events in the country.

 

Long before the dragon sets foot on the celestial plain this February 4, two events have already occurred that would affect the rest of the year.

First is the arrest and hospital detention of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

Second is the impeachment of Chief Justice Renato Corona by members of the House of Representatives. Should political fortune favor either Arroyo or Corona or both of them, President Benigno Aquino III will be in hot water – likely facing a serious threat of impeachment himself starting this July.

His political troubles won’t necessarily come from Mrs Arroyo, according to Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms. Casiple believes Arroyo is no longer the main threat: “On her own, she can’t do it,” meaning topple Aquino from the presidency.

However, “she’s still a threat” if she combines forces with others and contributes her extensive network and financial resources, he said.

A prominent western businessman who spoke on condition of anonymity gave an assessment of Arroyo similar to that of Casiple. He said he based this on the glaring absence of civilian protests on the day Arroyo was transported to a military hospital. He described this as “a manifestation of her consistent unpopularity as measured by two major public opinion pollsters or surveys.”

However, she is widely believed to be well-funded, he said.

He and Casiple expressed the belief that Arroyo on her own can no longer muster widespread political support from the masses, the politicians and the military in order to topple PNoy – Aquino’s popular nickname.

She can only bank on the expectation that Aquino’s popularity would plummet by the second half of this year, as what has happened to previous presidents. To political science professor Benito Lim, that will happen “when (food and gas) prices go up – PNoy will not be popular.”

In addition, Lim said efforts are afoot “to cut down the popularity of the President” by raising issues against him such as his delayed visit to typhoon-ravaged cities, the continued rise in poverty and his defiance of the Supreme Court order allowing Mrs Arroyo to travel abroad.

Events are now centered on the actions of President Aquino, not Arroyo. Casiple explained that “the situation is physically transitioning into an Aquino-dominated situation but in the context of the 2016 (presidential) elections.”

“Those who are maneuvering to run for the presidency in 2016 are trying to fish in troubled waters,” he said, obviously referring to Vice-President Jejomar Binay, the only politician who has openly declared his intention to run for president in 2016.

Casiple noted that by July this year, Binay will be thrust into a unique constitutional situation. Under the 1987 Constitution, if the sitting president should vacate his office for whatever reason two years and one day after assuming office, the vice-president who succeeds him can still run for a full six-year presidential term.

July 1, 2012 will mark President Aquino’s two years and one day in office.

“This is precisely the scenario that GMA (Arroyo) took advantage of when she decided to run again in 2004” after replacing Estrada in January 2001, Casiple said.

“Definitely, the people around Binay are thinking of that…but there’s no indication Binay or anyone close to him are doing something about it,” Casiple said.

One way to trigger such a scenario is to impeach Aquino in the same way Estrada was impeached in the year 2000. Casiple disclosed that “even now, there are talks going on in the House (of Representatives) about a possible impeachment of President Aquino (come July). Some of them are collecting articles of impeachment….the president will be vulnerable by then. “

Some Catholic bishops have also openly talked about impeaching Aquino for defying the Supreme Court on the matter of Arroyo’s travel abroad.

In a lightning move last year, congressional allies of Aquino impeached Supreme Court Chief Justice Renato Corona. He was accused, among others, of ill-gotten wealth and issuing decisions favoring Arroyo.

If the Senate acquits Corona, this may well pave the way for Aquino’s own impeachment – using as grounds his open defiance of the Supreme Court and well-publicized efforts to unseat Corona as chief justice.

Should this happen, Arroyo, who is now a congresswoman “doesn’t have a choice but to play because she’s not decisive anymore,” Casiple said. He noted that “in the developing political situation, there are those who can make use of it more than she can.”

But just as Arroyo weathered several impeachment attempts against her, Aquino is bound to use the very same political weapons that Arroyo had used to neutralize all impeachment threats – through the grant of political favors and pork barrel funds.

One potent weapon Arroyo never had, but which Aquino continues to enjoy to this day is the wellspring of popular support. This partly stems from the fact that his first two years in office were marked with a stunning absence of any money scandal involving any member of his official family – that had marred the two previous administrations.

How will Aquino, a Metal Rat in the Chinese zodiac, fare in the Year of the Black Water Dragon?

Dramatic changes have happened at least thrice during the Year of the Dragon in Philippine history.

On January 30,1965 during the Year of the Dragon, Ferdinand Marcos was overwhelmingly elected president. He soon began quietly plotting to stay in power forever and stashing money in a secret Swiss bank account under the alias ‘William Saunders’.

Again, in the Year of the Dragon, a Philippine president was impeached and unseated for the first time. Then President Joseph Estrada was impeached by the House of Representatives on November 13, 2000 and the military turned against him on January 19, 2001 – or four days before the Year of the Dragon officially ended.

In the Year of the Dragon this 2012, one Chinese horoscope has predicted that Metal Rats like Aquino (born February 8, 1960) are bound to have a “fair year”, though one not marked with “outstanding achievement.” Meaning, “it only means you might get less return than you expected even if you put more effort in it.”

One alleged local psychic, who had earlier predicted that Senator Manuel Villar would win the presidency, lately claimed that Aquino would not finish his term.

Casiple disagreed with his forecast, saying: “The opposition is waiting for him (Aquino) to stumble. But I think he will go the whole term. I’m not saying it will be easy. There will be challenges along the way.”

[Note: This article first appeared in the January 2012 issue of Asian Dragon magazine. I am posting it with the magazine’s permission. Also, my thanks to those of my commenters who first raised the July 1, 2012  constitutional temptation scenario for VP Binay.]

Tagged With: Chief Justice Renato Corona, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms, former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, Philippine news, political science professor Benito Lim, Ramon Casiple, Year of the Black Water Dragon

Comments

  1. Mel says

    February 28, 2012 at 6:09 PM

    House prosecutors rest case vs Corona

    MANILA, Philippines (1st UPDATE) – Saying they have presented enough evidence to convict Chief Justice Renato Corona, House prosecutors rested their case on the 25th day of the impeachment trial.

    Lead House prosecutor Niel Tupas Jr. said they are limiting their presentation of evidence to articles 2, 3 and 7 of the impeachment complaint also to hasten the proceedings.

    “It is in our humble opinion that we have presented a strong case and evidence that would suffice for the removal of Corona,” he said.

    Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile asked the prosecution if it was going to “withdraw” the five other articles from the impeachment complaint. Tupas said yes.

    “So it is my understanding that this will, in effect, cancel the other individual articles,” Enrile said.

    The other articles include allegations regarding Corona’s “dubious” appointment as chief magistrate, the blatant disregard of separation of powers in the case of former Ombudsman Merceditas Gutierrez, the “gerry-mandering” in the cityhood bills, the plagiarism case of another justice, and the supposed anomalous accounting of the Judiciary Development Fund (JDF) and special allowance for the judiciary (SAJ) collections.

    Tupas said they have presented a total of 17 witnesses and 166 documentary evidence for Article 2, 1 witness and 16 documentary evidence for article 3, and 7 witnesses and 7 documentary evidence for article 7.

    The prosecution faced several obstacles during the presentation of their case in the three articles, including a Supreme Court Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) on the dollar accounts of Corona in Philippine Savings Bank. They have also been criticized several times by the senator-judges for being unprepared in presenting their case.

    They have also been criticized for fishing evidence via the subpoenas they asked from the impeachment court.

    Betrayal of public trust

    Tupas said they are maintaining that Corona committed culpable violation of the Constitution and betrayal of public trust in Article 2, “when he failed to disclose to the public his Statement of Assets, Liabilities, and Net Worth as required under Sec. 17, Article XI of the 1987 Constitution.”

    Only betrayal of public trust is being alleged in the 2 other articles of impeachment–Article 3 and Article 7.

    Article 3 says Corona failed “to meet and observe the stringent standards under Article VIII, section 7 (3) of the Constitution that provides that “[a] member of the judiciary must be a person of proven competence, integrity, probity, and independence.”

    Article 7, on the other hand, says Corona “supposedly betrayed the public trust through his partiality in granting a temporary restraining order in favor of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and her husband Jose Miguel Arroyo in order to give them an opportunity to escape prosecution and to frustrate the ends of justice, and in distorting the supreme court decision on the effectivity of the TRO in view of a clear failure to comply with the conditions of the Supreme Court’s own TRO.”

    The senator-judges earlier asked the prosecution if their allegations against Corona can be considered a “high crime” and whether these are “impeachable” offenses.

    Enrile ordered the prosecution to submit a formal memoranum on the prosecution’s decision to terminate their case.

    It will now be the turn of the defense to present evidence in favor of the chief justice.

    by Ira Pedrasa, ABS-CBNnews.com
    Posted at 02/28/2012 5:03 PM | Updated as of 02/28/2012 5:28 PM

  2. nelson ongpauco says

    February 17, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    ang mga chinese horoscope na yan ay palabas lang ng chinese para bilhin ng pinoy ang mga paninda nila, gaya ng mga dragon mga suwerteng bagay na ipinagbibili nila mga prutas tikoy at iba [pang pagkain ,na hindi naman totoo.sa mga taong sumusunod sa mga sinssabi ng chinese horoscope nagkatotoo ba nabago ba ang buhay ninyo,ang dapat gawin ng tao ay magbago ng ugali ,,magipon ng pera ,magnegosyo ,mag-aral hindi katulad ng mga tao pagsahod inuman na puro utang pagsiningil mo naman galit pa..puro bili ng mga kayabangan …kaya walang asenso….manga politiko puro korakot…sarili lang kapakanan ang iniisip…kaya mga kababayan magbago natayo para gumanda ang buhay natin..

  3. nelson ongpauco says

    February 17, 2012 at 12:59 PM

    may kasabihan ang mga chinese na ang maliit na tao ay sinungaling sa sampung sinabi isa lang ang totoo.maga,ling lang manguto sa tao pagkatalikod mo tatawatawa dahil may nautong utuuto na naniniwala sa kaniya..aayuna kang aayunan tapos hindi naman sinusonod ang sinabi..doble kara yan..sana bago kayo maniwala kay binay obserbahan muna ninyo sya kung totoo ang sinasabi nya..lahat ng pol.itiko parepareho..

  4. Mel says

    February 11, 2012 at 7:11 AM

    Has the SC ruled previously that confidentiality in reference to ‘Foreign Currency Deposits Law does not assure absolute confidentiality of dollar accounts’, that it only applies to foreigners but not to Filipino account holders‘?

    Is the Supreme Court consistent in dispensing judgments to issue TROs?

    House divided on impeaching 8 justices who blocked opening of Corona dollar accounts

    Bayan Muna Rep. Neri Colmenares warned that “the eight justices will go down with (the Chief Justice) should they persist in supporting Corona’s already discredited attempt to hide the truth.”

    Colmenares noted that the Foreign Currency Deposits Law does not assure absolute confidentiality of dollar accounts, citing the China Bank case where the SC ruled that confidentiality only applies to foreigners but not to Filipino account holders “otherwise all corrupt officials, drug lords and gambling lords will just deposit their stash in dollar accounts to escape prosecution.”

    Source: Gil Cabacungan, Philippine Daily Inquirer 8:08 pm | Friday, February 10th, 2012

  5. Mel says

    February 9, 2012 at 7:28 PM

    FINALLY, Rudy Fariñas’ testosterone is in the right place – go for it! The sovereign people are behind you manong.

    NO GUTS NO GLORY! Bring out the Fariñas’ good side manong. Sige lat taa!

    THIS IS THE WAY TO DEAL WITH SCALAWAGS IN CLOWN ROBES!

    Impeach 8 pro-TRO Supreme Court justices—Representative Fariñas

    MANILA, Philippines—Ilocos Norte Representative Rudy Fariñas on Thursday urged the House of Representatives to file impeachment charges against the eight Supreme Court justices who voted in favor of the issuance of a temporary restraining order (TRO) for the subpoena of dollar accounts allegedly owned by Chief Justice Renato Corona.

    In a press conference at the Senate, Fariñas said the articles of impeachment against Corona included the alleged meddling of the Supreme Court in the impeachment case that was still in the committee level of the House against former Ombudsman Merceditas Guttierez.

    “The 188 congressmen who signed the impeachment case against Corona, they will have to be consistent with themselves,” Fariñas said.

    When asked if he will lead the filing of impeachment charges against the eight other SC justices, Fariñas said: “I will. Ako na mismo pasimuno ngayon (I will take the lead this time).”

    When asked when he will file the resolution, Fariñas said: “As soon as I’m free, I will beg (for) leave (of-absence).”

    The eight magistrates who voted in favor of the TRO are Associate Justices Teresita Leonardo de Castro, Arturo Brion, Roberto Abad, Jose Perez, Lucas Bersamin, Martin Villarama, Beinvenido Reyes and Jose Mendoza.

    Fariñas is deputy lead prosecutor in the ongoing Corona impeachment trial.

    Source: Katherine Evangelista, INQUIRER.net 6:47 pm | Thursday, February 9th, 2012

    • Mel says

      February 9, 2012 at 8:02 PM

      IF this challenge pushes through, the Articles of Impeachment will be better crafted.

      There were public feelers or news spin wheelers in parallel to R Corona that some or all of GMA Supreme Court Justice appointees might ALSO be impeached.

      This could be the catalyst to spearhead in eradicating the remainder of GMA appointees in the Supeme Court! NOT AN EASY BALL GAME TO PLAY, BUT DOABLE to pull it off.

      It takes magnanimous guts by the House of Representatives to back and support Representative Rudy Fariñas’ call to his Congress peers, fellow solons to be consistent.

      The current House-Prosecutors have learned a lot of lessons, not to repeat to this declaration of Representative Rudy Fariñas.

      This time, he would like to take the Lead in prosecuting, not one but 8!

      LOL!

      Baka naman, pautot lang ni Rep Fariñas eto. O dili kaya nabibigla lang.

      HUWAG NAMAN SANA Manong!

      Apay sika iti maka dalus dita Supreme Court.

  6. Mel says

    February 7, 2012 at 7:57 AM

    Another SC justice faces impeachment trial

    MANILA, Philippines – The Senate is facing the possibility of tackling 2 impeachment cases against 2 sitting Supreme Court justices within the same year.

    This possibility became probable as 2 sources told ABS-CBN News that the House is also likely to impeach Associate Justice Mariano del Castillo for betrayal of public trust over allegations he plagiarized a Supreme Court decision he penned.

    Source: RG Cruz, ABS-CBN News Posted at 02/07/2012 12:10 AM | Updated as of 02/07/2012 12:10 AM

  7. Mel says

    February 5, 2012 at 7:45 AM

    All Senators and Congressmen of the Legislative Branch are voted nationally and by their respective constituents to represent their common interests in The House, whether it maybe the Congress or the Senate.

    Isn’t it just right and fair for their side of the House to compliment each other (Sens & Cens) the opportunity to Chair and Lead their cause of actions?

    Rotate the Senate-Impeachment Chairperson

    It would serve the better interest of the R Corona Impeachment, especially the sovereign people, to have different Senate-Judges to Chair, handle and oversee the remaining Articles of Impeachment.

    To allay the misperception of bias or what appears as a ‘favored’ exclusion (although cast for a vote) of certain clause(s) (e.g. Article II.4) by the current Chair (raised to vote by Senator JP Enrile) the other Senator-Judges must be given the opportunity to seat as Chair for the remaining Articles.

    We know that not all Senators are Lawyers and/or with disparity of experiences as such between Senators. For one to Chair, it is not incumbent that a Senator must be a lawyer. The fundamental requisite is of sound of mind, capable of prudent reasoning, able to weigh both panel’s (pro, def) of merits & faults. [some commenters can spin these premise, if you please – thanks].

    Rotate the House-Prosecutor, Lead

    The overwhelming number of Articles of Impeachment is too much to trot for a lone Lead House-Prosecutor (although with some support from fellow solons, private lawyers), it is but necessary to delegate the leading prosecuting hand for each Article to other House-Prosecutors.

    The Fish Net for all 8 Articles is too much for one lead to pull. One Lead Prosecutor is up against a veteran, and a professor. Regardless of who has the most legal supporters, luminaries to back the Lead. The past 11 days of Senate-Impeachment for one Lead is obviously overbearing for one, the current Lead needs a relief, let other H-Prosecutors take some of the helm.

    This is not a lone wolf’s single hook, line and sinker crusade. It is a collective Representatives’ call to achieve a better result for the people. Even just one Article to win – clear, incontrovertible & convincing.

    Due to limited space for commenters, can’t expound further. Can’t take advantage of Raïssa’s tolerance and kindness.

    • Mel says

      February 5, 2012 at 8:06 AM

      re ‘One Lead Prosecutor is up against a veteran, and a professor.’

      One Lead Prosecutor is up against, an ex-Supreme Court Associate Justice, a veteran, and a law professor. Although called from retirement, the age gap wasn’t a deterrent to score ‘political’ points.

    • Mel says

      February 6, 2012 at 7:45 AM

      Rotate the House-Prosecutor, Lead

      If the House-Prosecutors can consider this, the other assigned Lead Prosecutor(s) for the other Articles of Impeachment may now have sufficient time to prepare, research, brain-storm and be coached by private but more experienced trial Lawyers.

      There would be lapses, or short of skills, between Articles and Lead(ers), but surely, rationale Congressmen can coordinate, support their Prosecution Lead(ers) to excel.

      The House-Prosecution can readily give advance memo, schedules or related info to the Senate-Judges of their Articles for hearing, upcoming/available witnesses, material evidences, request for subpoenas, & so forth. The Defense would just have to catch up.

      Hopefully, it could be finished by March 23, 2012.

      IF the House-Prosecutors hasn’t been confident of late about their Article II, R Corona is justifiably guilty if you can just rationalized your … The Defense’s strategy of late are merely using distractions, use of skewed legalistic (letter for word), interpretations of ….

      The SENATE-JUDGES must always bear in mind that this is a political process and exercise. (Other commenting threads in this blog have repeatedly submitted these one-liner)

      • Mel says

        February 6, 2012 at 9:04 PM

        PNoy defends House prosecutors

        On suggestions that the panel of prosecutors should be revamped, the President says the House prosecutors have a disadvantage: as congressmen, they are not allowed to build on their trial experience and they are faced with a panel of defense lawyers who have more experience in litigation.

        Source: Willard Cheng, ABS-CBN News Posted at 02/06/2012 1:37 PM | Updated as of 02/06/2012 6:25 PM

        Revamp or change the LEAD House Prosecutor per Article schedules, kailangan kung masa-sayos ang possibilidad na may maipanalo kahit isa. Hindi lang ‘information overload’ kundi kulang sa tulog ang isang LEAD kada Artikulo.

        Puwede bang gumamit ng Bluetooth na headset sa Senado?
        Para may monitor ang prosekutor habang nakatayo sa pulpito mula sa kapartido, sasabihan na lang pabulong para walang makaligtaan.

        Wala naman ata sa ‘Rules of Court’ na bawal gumamit ng ‘Bluetooth headset’.

  8. baycas says

    February 5, 2012 at 3:39 AM

    BROTHERHOOD

    Sigma Rhoans versus Utopians
    July 16, 2010

    …The battle for the chief justice position…The high court skirmish was, on the contrary, merely a part of a larger struggle for dominance whose seeds were sown—get this—in the law schools of the University of the Philippines and Ateneo de Manila.

    Until recently, the premiere fraternity which swayed the legal profession was UP’s Sigma Rho.

    xxxxx

    However about a decade ago, the grip of Sigma Rho started to slip with the entry of Utopian brothers in key government positions, especially with the coming to power of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo.

    xxxxx

    In 1989, a Utopian, Eugene Tan, dared to go up against the Sigma Rhoan candidate for the IBP presidency; Tan won the electoral contest but at the cost of incurring the enmity of Sigma Rhoan leaders Angara and Drilon.

    After a Sigma Rhoan-inspired case, Tan was disbarred and lost the IBP presidency. The chief justice at that time was Marcelo Fernan, another Sigma Rhoan.

    With the Utopian out, IBP again became a Sigma Rho playground.

    But in the very vortex of power, it was Utopia that held sway, especially after Edsa II swept Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo into Malacañang.

    Arroyo was surrounded in the Palace by Utopians: Renato Corona as chief of staff, presidential son Mikey Arroyo, First Gentleman Mike Arroyo, transportation secretary Pantaleon Alvarez, labor secretary Arturo Brion, internal revenue commissioner Jose Ma. Buñag, customs commissioner Antonio Bernardo and police chief Edgardo Aglipay.

    President Arroyo also started to stack the judiciary with Utopians, beginning with Corona, Brion and Roberto Abad. But, in fairness, she also appointed her former legal counsel, Sigma Rhoan Antonio Carpio, to the Supreme Court.

    Over at the Court of Appeals, Arroyo also appointed another Utopian, Andres Reyes, one of the youngest justices who could arguably serve as presiding justice until 2020.

    And at Sandiganbayan, Utopian Norberto Geraldez was promoted presiding justice, with his term good until 2019.

    Even with, or probably because of, Benigno Aquino III becoming president, the Utopian encirclement of Malacañang continues with the appointment of Paquito Ochoa Jr. as executive secretary.

    Even the Cojuangco-Aquino’s Hacienda Luisita, another Utopian rules the roost in the person of Fernando Cojuangco.

    Maraming “sleepers” si Arroyo???

    • kardozoo says

      March 16, 2012 at 7:05 PM

      yun meralco case scandal sa CA between Sabio(ateneo-utopian) and Roxas(a UP-sigmarhoan)..pero yung anak ni Sabio ay opus deihindi kaya itong Utopian aligned sa Vatican? but then the INC confirms nor denies a corona alignment…hehe!

  9. ROMAN RAMA GUERRERO says

    February 1, 2012 at 8:43 PM

    There is no way PNoy could be impeached nor ousted through People Power. The 4 years remainder of his term that begins precisely at 12:01pm; June 30, 2012 also marks the opening of the door for a possible 10 years Binay Presidency up to 2012 i.e. after getting elected for another 6 years in 2016 WHILE SITTING IN OFFICE. That was the interpretation of Sec. 4(3); Art. VII of the Constitution which was followed by GMA who stayed as President for close to 9 1/2 years – from January 20, 2001 to June 30, 2012 as first beneficiary of that flawed constitutional provision.

    VP Binay for sure would be in a “damned if he do and damned if he doesn’t” situation as he shall always remain the legal second beneficiary of that erroneous and ab initio NULL AND VOID provision. Unless corrected before that precise time, PNoy shall be exposed like a sitting duck to anybody’s plot to get rid of him. And, by God, he has earned so many powerful enemies lately with motives strong enough to oust him – fair or foul – with somebody who would be more sympathetic to them who wants burial at the LNMB and travel abroad for medical treatment

    • ROMAN RAMA GUERRERO says

      February 1, 2012 at 8:47 PM

      Sorry, some mix-up on dates.”Binay presidency up to 2022 not 2012″ and “GMA stayed as president — from January 20, 2001 to June 30, 2010 not 2012”

  10. EdZee says

    February 1, 2012 at 1:19 PM

    The article did not mention VP Binay’s sign in the Chinese calendar and how he will fare in 2012 Year of Black Water Dragon. I suggest that the soothsayers be asked this information so that we could compare it with PNoy’s and see if there is a match.

  11. Juan Alila says

    February 1, 2012 at 12:43 AM

    LOL! Kung ang ganitong hulahula ay may katutuhanan. Alam nyo po ba na dapat nahulaan na nila ano lalabas bukas sa Lotto.

    Parang kulam daw… sus. kadaming namatay dahil kagagawan ng kilalang mga tao. bakit walang may nagkulam dito sa kanila? kathang isip at pang komiks.

    Wag po kayo magpaniwala dito Ms Raissa… Itoy larong intsik lamang, katuwaan. Dba parang fortune cookies? hehehe………….

  12. Mark Pere Madrona says

    January 31, 2012 at 11:15 PM

    Mam Raissa, just a super minor correction. December 30, 1965 po nagstart ang term of office ni Ferdinand Marcos. Elections were held that November. :-)

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First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Socialist Then they came fof the Trade Unionists, and I did not out speak out— Because I was not a Trade Unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out— Because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me— And there was no one left to speak for me. —Martin Niemöller (1892-1984)

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