Inside Philippine politics & beyond

With GMA out on bail, the 2013 elections just got more interesting

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By Raïssa Robles

Politics in the Philippines is always like a teleserye: One moment you’re up, the next moment you’re down.

TV grab of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo walking out on bail from Veteran Memorial Hospital

Like the former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Her bail today triggers immense possibilities for political mischief and could bring the 2013 polls to an early boil.

Arroyo has seemingly lost most of her powerful political allies like Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia of Cebu, the Zubiris of Mindanao and the Magsaysays of central Luzon, who have all joined forces with Vice-President Jejomar Binay’s UNA coalition. I use the word “seemingly” because what may be happening is that they may all continue to be her allies.

Arroyo has a lot riding on the elections next year. For starters, she intends to keep her seat in Congress and her Pampanga constituents may vote her on for sentimental and financial reasons. For her two congressman-sons, though, it will be their first time to wage political battle without the help of presidential pork. This will be interesting to watch.

Arroyo is not just fighting for her political life; she is fighting for her physical liberty. All she may really need to do is simply delay her plunder cases beyond the remaining four years of President Benigno Aquino’s term. That’s pretty much standard procedure in this country, so it shouldn’t be hard to do .

Aquino finishes his presidency in 2016 and by the following year, Arroyo will turn 70 years old. And voila! Even if she is convicted, her allies may petition the next president to grant her executive clemency because she is old and sick and a woman and a former head of state.

Arroyo can also look forward to the Imelda Marcos treatment. After over two decades of fending off criminal lawsuits, only one reached trial stage, for which Marcos was convicted. But when a new Philippine president came to power, the new government “lost” her case on appeal before the Supreme Court.

No senior politician above the level of congressman has ever served an actual jail sentence in a prison cell in this country. Those who did, like Romeo Jalosjos, turned out to have a special hut built inside the prison compound.

But we can assume that Arroyo would not want to get convicted at all. And that means using all the means at her disposal: calling in past favors, making her former B+ average student, Aquino, look bad, and other tricks we can only begin to guess at.

Any time now, though, a new warrant of arrest is bound to be served on Arroyo for her plunder case concerning the Philippine Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO). As well as for other cases still being investigated. Will she go quietly the second time around? Will she petition the Supreme Court to lift the hold departure order against her issued by the anti-graft court Sandiganbayan on grounds of humanity and precarious health?

Or will the Sandiganbayan itself allow her to travel abroad as it allowed ex-President Joseph Estrada while on trial?

All I know is that in Philippine politics, there’s no such thing as “impossible.” And that’s why I posted this afternoon on the social networking site Twitter when I heard that Arroyo was granted bail – It’s more fun being a journo in the Philippines.

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  2. “President Arroyo… is aware of her husband’s misdeeds, but she is unwilling to do anything to curb his activities because he was instrumental in marshaling campaign donations and is now keeping those supporters in line to help her maintain her grip on power,” – Washington Sycip, a founding partner of accounting giant SGV.


    Arroyo knew husband involved in syndicates, US cable says

    by Jojo Malig, abs-cbnNEWS.com
    Posted at 09/03/2011 11:59 PM
    Updated as of 09/04/2011 11:54 AM

    MANILA, Philippines – Pampanga Rep. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo knew of her husband’s “heavy involvement” in smuggling and illegal gambling syndicates but refused to stop him because he got her elected as President, a US embassy cable published Friday by whistleblower group WikiLeaks alleges.

    Some of the Philippines’ top business leaders raised the issue before American government officials in 2005 as they feared for the worst for the country, according to cable 05MANILA2670, classified “Confidential” by US embassy Economic Counselor Robert Ludan and sent by then US Chargé d’Affaires Joseph Mussomeli.

    Washington Sycip, a founding partner of accounting giant SGV, told US officials that then First Gentleman Jose Miguel “Mike” Arroyo “is heavily involved in the illegal gambling or ‘jueteng’ networks and closely connected with major smuggling syndicates,” according to the embassy memo.

    “President Arroyo, according to Sycip, is aware of her husband’s misdeeds, but she is unwilling to do anything to curb his activities because he was instrumental in marshaling campaign donations and is now keeping those supporters in line to help her maintain her grip on power,” it added.

    Cabinet officials were also caught in a bind. Many of their subordinates–Arroyo loyalists who were placed in key government positions–reported directly to the First Gentleman, bypassing chains of command, the cable revealed.

    The memo also cited reports claiming that the President’s son, Congressman Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo, “is involved in jueteng racketeering.”

    Sycip, described as a “long-time US embassy contact,” saw the former First Gentleman “as one of the worst offenders, with a reputation for corruption seeping down to all levels of society and eroding PGMA’s political standing,” the cable said.

    The memo, again quoting Sycip, said Mike Arroyo’s behavior damaged the credibility of the government and affected his wife’s ability to crack down on corruption.

    The SGV founding partner became “increasingly pessimistic, claiming privately that corruption [under the Arroyo administration was] at its worst, surpassing even the Marcos era.”

    Sycip said the President also rarely followed the advice given by a special group, of which he was a member, regarding complaints about corruption in her administration.

    “President Arroyo is more concerned about her ability to stay in office than developing a strategic approach to policy making, he critiqued,” the cable added.

    No confidence in Arroyo government

    Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FFCCCI) President Francis Chua echoed Sycip’s allegations of the then First Gentleman’s involvement in syndicates, according to the June 9, 2005 memo.

    Chua described Mike Arroyo as “a major problem with respect to corruption, pointing to his links to ‘jueteng’ and the many politicians and local officials involved in the illegal gambling racket.”

    Chua added that the Chinese-Filipino community was losing confidence in the government, in particular the courts.

    “The FFCCCI maintains an internal settlement process to resolve disputes among member companies because members have so little trust in the court system. This process is being used more frequently now as an increasing number of FFCCCI members see the courts as unreliable and unpredictable because of corruption,” the cable said.

    “According to [Chua], the Chinese-Filipino business community encounters corruption on a regular basis in the tax bureau, customs, and other government functions… Corruption, he said, is increasingly undermining the ability of companies to operate efficiently in the RP…According to Chua, almost no business people believe the GRP’s claims that its efforts are achieving results,” it added.

    “Chua said this corruption … does make it more and more difficult to sustain economic growth,” the cable said. “Capital flight is not yet a problem… [but] many of their investments are scaled back, however, from what they would be in a clean market.”

    US embassy officials also heard similar complaints from then Makati Business Club Director Bill Luz.

    “Luz said that people should watch the rumors swirling around the first family carefully,” the cable said.

    “Regarding Mike Arroyo’s involvement, Luz said he senses that the allegations will continue and sooner or later someone will come forward with clear evidence of wrongdoing,” it added.

    Another cable, 05MANILA2359, had also linked the husband and son of Arroyo to illegal gambling syndicates.

    The memo, dated May 23, 2005, said all that it would take then to oust Arroyo from power then was “for one credible witness–like Governor Chavit Singsong [sic] in the Estrada case–to go public.”

    “However, there is little enthusiasm for a new impeachment process that could constitutionally bump up Vice President Noli De Castro as President, despite a fairly widespread belief in elite circles that the Arroyos are indeed directly linked to jueteng payoffs,” it added.

    “The likelihood either of stamping out or legalizing jueteng remains low; too many powerful people benefit,” said the embassy cable also sent Mussomeli.

    In earlier statements to media, the former First Gentleman and his son, Mikey, have denied all allegations of wrongdoing during the previous administration.

    Business leaders quoted by the embassy cables, meanwhile, have yet to confirm the confidential statements made public by WikiLeaks.