Analysis by Raïssa Robles
Understanding the Elections – Part I:
People have asked me to tell them who I’m voting for senator this May. Rather than give you a list, I will explain how I choose the senators I’ll vote for.
I’m sure many of you will be surprised that you yourselves probably go through a similar process except you do it intuitively.
The three questions I’m asking myself are the following. Each question affects the other two questions. I will explain later why:
QUESTION ONE: Who do I want to be President of the Philippines in 2016?
QUESTION TWO: Which political bloc do I want to have control of the Senate, the Commission on Appointments, the Presidential Electoral Tribunal and the Senate Electoral Tribunal: The bloc of President Benigno Aquino (PNoy) or the bloc of Vice-President Jejomar Binay?
QUESTION THREE: Who are my personal choices for senator?
The answers to Questions ONE and TWO will affect the answers to Question THREE – Who are my personal choices for senator? –
I will tackle Question ONE and Question TWO first and later do a separate piece on Question THREE.
QUESTION ONE: Who do I want to be President of the Philippines in 2016?
This is a most unusual mid-term poll we’re having. Traditionally, the election is a test of the incumbent president’s popularity and mandate with the people.
This time, it is definitely a dry run for Binay’s 2016 presidential bid.
Only Binay has categorically stated that he is running for president in 2016. He has no choice, I guess.
In 2016, he will turn 74 years old. While he may live even longer than Enrile, by the time 2022 rolls around, he will be 80. Probably too old for the presidency.
In 2011, Binay made known his desire to become president in 2016. This means, he has had two years to prepare for the 2013 polls. The election this May is but a preparation for the 2016 polls.
Veteran politician and Senate President Juan Ponce Enrile made the same observation. Enrile, Binay’s party mate, said: “2013 is a testing ground on whom the people will support. This is what you call a curtain raiser” for 2016.
Notice that Binay put up a new coalition for the May 2013 elections – UNA – or United Nationalist Alliance. UNA is no longer the political vehicle of Joseph Estrada when he ran for president in May 2010. It is Binay’s vehicle for 2016.
Binay has fielded his daughter Nancy for senator. She not only has NO political experience. She also has NO political presence anywhere in the country. We can therefore presume that she is placing in the magic 12 due to the sheer pull of VP Binay’s name, plus something else. That something else could be the promises that Binay is making to local political candidates who are willing to carry Nancy Binay’s name on their sample ballots.
There is also the fact that Nancy Binay’s surname begins with the letter “B”. Here’s a trick I learned from a veteran political operator, who told me how they are able to subtly influence the results of a political survey. Part of the art is in deciding how to present to survey respondents the “universe” or list of names to choose from – in this case, alphabetically.
Alphabetically, Nancy Binay’s name is number five in the Comelec official list. And the surname Binay is a familiar and popular name.
Normally, a vice-president can pretty much sit out an election of senators and local officials. But this time, VP Binay is busy campaigning like a candidate. He is so busy that he even skipped Estrada’s recent birthday party-turned-political campaign rally. Normally, you don’t do that to your most important political ally.
But Binay felt he needed to be way over in La Union, the northern tip of Luzon, campaigning. He even told a press conference there:
“I didn’t know how to apologize to him (Erap). I just told him Sir, please understand. We have to work.”
You can read about it more here.
The alliance between Estrada and Binay is an opportunistic one. Binay all but stabbed Estrada in the back during the 2010 elections with the “NoyBi” campaign. Still Estrada agreed to Binay’s UNA, where Estrada now seems to be content to play number two. Or it could be just practical, amoral politics at work. No friends, no enemies, no principles: just pure political calculation.
Estrada is fighting for his political legacy. He wants to erase his conviction for plunder by capping his life with a victory – first as president. And when that did not pan out, then as mayor of the nation’s capital. He needs all the help he can get fighting Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim. Especially Binay’s help.
Because Manila is one of the places where Estrada LOST to Benigno Aquino in 2010. Estrada only got 214,517 votes in Manila, compared to PNoy who got 298,217 votes.
Binay got much more votes in Manila than either Estrada or PNoy. Binay got 375,813 votes in 2010.
However, Lim topped them all by getting 395,910 votes.
So, just to recap, here are the votes that the four politicians got in Manila:
Lim – 395,910 votes
Binay – 375,813 votes
PNoy – 298,217 votes
Estrada – 214,517 votes
Still, between the two geriatrics fighting over a decaying city like Manila, it is difficult to tell who will win city hall – Dirty Harry or the Guy convicted of Dirty Money.
QUESTION TWO: Which political bloc do I want to have control of the Senate, the Commission on Appointments, the Presidential Electoral Tribunal and the Senate Electoral Tribunal: The bloc of President Benigno Aquino or the bloc of Vice-President Jejomar Binay?
I was told by a voter in Cubao, Quezon City that UNA is aggressively campaigning there for people to vote “straight UNA” this May.
Technically, that means voting for UNA’s nine senatorial candidates since UNA officially fielded only the following nine:
BINAY, Nancy
COJUANGCO, Margarita
EJERCITO, Joseph Victor “JV”
ENRILE, Juan Ponce Jr.
GORDON, Richard
HONASAN, Gregorio
MACEDA, Ernesto
MAGSAYSAY, Milagros
ZUBIRI, Juan Miguel
Of these nine candidates, only TWO are very likely to make it, as of the latest SWS survey:
Nancy Binay
JV Ejercito
FOUR OTHERS are fighting tooth and nail to make it, based on the same SWS late April survey:
Juan Miguel Zubiri
Jack Enrile
Gringo Honasan
Dick Gordon (who is a FAR FOURTH)
It is for this reason that JV Ejercito said early this month that six UNA candidates will win. Because only six are within fighting distance. And of the six, only two are sure to make it. If you want to read the story quoting Ejercito, click on this link.
How your vote will affect which power bloc will control the Senate
At the moment, members of the UNA coalition led by Juan Ponce Enrile, Jinggoy Estrada, and Vicente Sotto control the Senate leadership .
Come July 1, the same THREE UNA members will be left at the Senate as holdovers. Let’s call them the Enrile-Binay bloc:
Vicente Sotto
Juan Ponce Enrile
Jinggoy Estrada
TWO other senators will likely ally with the Enrile-Binay bloc:
Bongbong Marcos (Nationalist People’s Coalition)
Bong Revilla (Lakas Kampi)
Incidentally, the Lakas Kampi Party of detained former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has announced it would back several UNA candidates.
In summary, the 24-member Senate will open this July 1, 2013 with 12 NEWLY-ELECTED senators,
Plus FIVE hold-over senators aligned with UNA:
Juan Ponce Enrile
Vicente Sotto
Jinggoy Estrada
Bongbong Marcos
Bong Revilla
And SEVEN hold-over senators leaning toward PNoy:
Pia Cayetano
Miriam Santiago
Franklin Drilon
Teofisto “TG” Guingona
Manuel “Lito” Lapid
Sergio Osmena III
Ralph Recto
This means, that in order to keep the Senate leadership in the UNA bloc (and this would require 13 votes), UNA has to win at least EIGHT SENATE SEATS this May. At this time, this seems impossible since UNA can win only SIX SEATS at most although it fielded NINE candidates.
If UNA wins six seats, it will occupy ELEVEN SEATS in the Senate.
That’s still a lot. But can that realistically happen?
Because from the PNoy bloc, NINE of TWELVE senatorial candidates are likely to win this May, the latest April SWS survey indicates:
Loren Legarda
Alan Peter Cayetano
Cynthia Villar
Chiz Escudero
Bam Aquino
Koko Pimentel
Juan Edgardo Angara
Grace Poe
Antonio Trillanes
This means, the PNoy bloc will control at least 16 seats in the Senate (if you add the SEVEN holdovers).
As for the other THREE tail-ender candidates of the PNoy bloc –
Jun Magsaysay
Jamby Madrigal
Risa Hontiveros
They will be fighting over the last THREE SLOTS in the Magic 12 against THREE UNA senatorial candidates:
Jack Enrile
Gringo Honasan
Juan Miguel Zubiri
And so, to conclude –
Those who want Binay to be President in 2016 should vote for Jack Enrile, Gringo Honasan and Migz Zubiri.
Those who don’t want Binay to be President in 2016 should vote for Jun Magsaysay, Jamby Madrigal and Risa Hontiveros.
Why the Senate is crucial in 2016
ONE – There are only 26 winning politicians who can rightfully claim to have the backing of a national constituency. These are: the President, the Vice-President and 24 senators.
TWO – The Senate performs a special function in Philippine democracy. It checks the actions of the Chief Executive and the latter’s officials. It can cut the budget of the Executive branch. Each senator has a bigger pork barrel than one congressman. The Senate is also the training ground for future presidents.
THREE – The Senate President chairs the powerful Commission on Appointments which can sit on presidential appointments forever and ever.
Members of the Commission on Appointments, who come from the House and the Senate, can also block presidential appointments indefinitely. A case in point is that of the non-confirmation of Commission on Audit Commissioner Heidi Mendoza.
Mendoza happens to be a witness in the ongoing Sandiganbayan graft case of former Makati Mayor Elenita Binay, the VP’s wife, over a P72 million purchase of Makati city hall.
FOUR – In the hands of a bloc whose policies and ambitions are opposed to the sitting President, the Senate can derail the President’s plans and programs. This is in order to turn the president into a lameduck so that his endorsement in the next presidential election will not mean much.
Can the Senate become a rubber stamp of the President if nearly all come from his bloc?
This is the argument that candidate Honasan is now making in order for the electorate to re-elect him. Honasan recently urged voters to maintain a balance between the number of administration and opposition members in the Senate because he said an imbalance would damage democracy and “an independent Senate will serve public interest best.”
A Senate controlled by the President’s bloc rarely happens.
But there’s nothing to worry about, Honasan. When that happened in 1987 – when only two opposition senatorial candidates (Enrile and Estrada) were elected into office then – the Senate still opposed the President on key issues. For instance, the Senate rejected the extension of the United States bases. It continuously grilled finance officials on how best to reduce the foreign debt and it refused to confirm some of the Chief Executive’s cabinet appointees (e.g. Miriam Santiago, Augusto “Bobbit” Sanchez and Jose Concepcion Jr.).
This is because many senators want to project themselves as “independent” of the Chief Executive. Most of them are keenly aware they are presidential material. Most of them are intensely and continuously jockeying to run for VP or the presidency. Which is perhaps why you have a section in the Constitution that allows sitting senators to run for President or VP without losing their Senate seats if they don’t win.
With 24 egos altogether in one hall, the rivalry inside the Senate is often near boiling point.
Will a Senate controlled by the PNoy bloc or the Binay bloc come up with good laws?
Not all the time. Remember that the Anti-Cybercrime Law and the amendments to the Intellectual Property Code were approved by both PNoy’s party mates and Binay’s party allies.
But you can be sure that if the Binay bloc obtains control of the Senate, they will move to repeal the Reproductive Health Law and to amend the 1987 Constitution.
Either way, ordinary citizens will still have to guard both the House and the Senate closely in the passage of laws.
What if you find some candidates in the magic 12 just too “kadiri” for words?
That is where your personal choices comes in.
For instance, personally, I do not want to vote for senatorial candidates who already have relatives in office: Bam Aquino, Cynthia Villar, Jack Enrile, Alan Peter Cayetano, Nancy Binay, JV Ejercito and Juan Edgardo Angara.
I think political dynasties are what keep us poor as a nation and a people. But more on that later.
In addition, I am leery of candidates who do not file their Statements of Assets, Liabilities and Net Worth (SALNs) according to the Constitution and the law.
But as I said, my personal choices (QUESTION THREE) will be affected by the first two questions –
QUESTION ONE: Who do I want to be President of the Philippines in 2016?
QUESTION TWO: Which political bloc do I want to have control of the Senate, the Commission on Appointments, the Presidential Electoral Tribunal and the Senate Electoral Tribunal – The bloc of President Benigno Aquino (PNoy) or the bloc of Vice-President Jejomar Binay?
And so, on the eve of elections I will review my final choices based on the three questions.
NOTE: I will soon be posting a piece on QUESTION THREE, which will contain my assessment of candidates who might make it to the Magic 12.
Lorena says
This election exercise – with everyone shading ovals copied from CODIGOS will surpass
all our idiocies of the past. The numbers volume will be provided by the unlettered.
And we will get the officials that the informal settlers will hand to us in billion peso PCOS machines.
Mel says
Mel says
‘Majority’ in Senate are ‘adulterers’, says Santiago in defense of Hontiveros – By Maila Ager INQUIRER.net 5:34 pm | Friday, May 10th, 2013
Inna Egdio says
Hi Raissa,
Thank you so much for shining a light on COA Commissioner Heidi Mendoza’s non-confirmation.
The hard-core trapos have indeed united for survival and the preservation of their evil “business as usual” as PNoy’s Daang Matuwid Administration cramps their rotten trapo style, deprives their wicked ways of oxygen and closes in on them.
Thank you, as always, for what you do, Raissa.
Godspeed,
Inna
Monisima says
Do you realize that UNA is advertising on your page? I am clicking all the adds 20 times so they’ll have to pay:)
Rene-Ipil says
We are now in the “last two minutes” of the election ball game.
The political teams are now employing “full court press” all the way to the end.
Among other methods, the best way to put any senatorial candidate into the magic 12 is through “junking by insertion”. The candidate himself or a trusted election operator approaches the local kingpin and makes the proposal, usually with money involved. Local kingpins direct their loyal constituents to insert in their respective ballots the name of the favored bet from the opposition. Please take note that the voters involved and their families have been loyal supporters of the local kingpin through many years of patronage politics. In the Philippine political environment, it would not be difficult for the voters to accede to the kingpin’s wish because it involves only one or two of the 12 candidates in the list.
To put anyone among MMH in the magic 12, the junking must be done by UNA camp in favor of one or two TP bets. Meaning that UNA supporters would junk or remove one or two UNA bets in the list and replace them with TP bets. But I hope that PNoy would not tolerate such scheme so as not to compromise his Daang Matuwid with unscrupulous UNA local kingpins.
On the part of UNA I am sure that Honasan, Enrile and Zubiri are now raiding the TP camp for TP supporters to make “singit” of one or two UNA bets among the TP bets. Such moves must be thwarted by all means.
I believe that the best antidote to such unscrupulous election practice is “man-to-man guarding” or close monitoring of suspected allies and application of timely and effective counter measures. PNoy himself should remind such allies to follow the “matuwid na daan” and that adherence to good election practices would be awarded accordingly. The politician concerned would now be aware that he or she is in the “watch list” and that the election results would unmask his or her duplicity. Never mind the scheming UNA camp as long as TP takes good care of its allies and insulate them from UNA’s bad influence.
For example in Albay it would be alright if Honasan, a bicolano, won or even landed at the upper half of the winning slate. But it is totally unacceptable that Enrile won in Albay together with Honasan and Estrada or Binay. In other words the 10-2 prediction or promise by Salceda is alright if Enrile is out. In Palawan, Hagedorn might be in the magic 12 together with Estrada and Binay for a 9-3 norm. But placing Enrile or Peemayer Honasan in the magic 12 in Palawan is already suspect. And Baham Mitra, brother of Peemayer Mon-Mon Mitra, would be in hot water.
leona says
Candidate for town mayor ‘wins’ early in jail –
“TUGUEGARAO CITY, Philippines — A mayoral candidate found himself spending the last few days campaigning inside a jail cell after he was arrested for poking a gun at a voter who refused to shake his hand.
Sta. Maria Vice Mayor Gilbert Masigan, who is running as mayor, was arrested following the complaint of Jerry Maquinad, who said the candidate pointed a .45-caliber pistol at him after he refused to shake his hand during a campaign sortie in Barangay Bangad.”
hahaha…I find this a good election-joke. The candidate should have brought a PCOS with him.
Victin Luz says
JUNKING and POINT SHAVING …oftentimes are interchanged on their meanings and application in Electoral Process…..but studying it carefully with LOGIC, MATHEMATHIcs and FACTs , here it was…
JUNKING- in an electoral process, it is removing a useless ( it could also be helpful ) candidates coming from a party ,coming from surveys winning or lossing brackets , CHANGING , CHANGING their names with ANOTHER candidates coming also from surveys winning or lossing brackets to INCREASE the PERCENTAGE of winning of the latter candidates landing on the winning circles….or it propel the candidate to a higher ranking and descending the JUNKED candidates to the lower rankings to the extent of not LANDING on the winning circle……key word CHANGING…
POINT SHAVING- also in electoral process is PREVENTING the spreading of the 12 senatorial votes given to us in the ballots in order to help PROPEL the PERCENTAGE
/ CHANCES of candidates who are landing near or within the borderline of 10, 11 and 12 if we are going to talk Senatorial election ,BY BY…BY..by writing only in the ballots the name or names of the candidate/candidates we want to LAND in the winning circle….. NO CHANGING of NAMES …that makes the difference in JUNKING….
PS- is a sacrifice scheme in electoral process that might also change the outcome of the rankings of the shoo-in winners in the magic 12…
PS- FACTs- it was the most effective weapon to FIGHT/CONTRADICT/DEFEAT …the JUNKING SYSTEM of one party ESPECIALLY when the STRAIGHT LINE UP VOTING can NO LONGER AVAILED OF….NO CHANGING remember…
baycas says
1/3
An expansion of my Comment No. 49
(Might as well place this on this page 2 of Comments for easy reading)
A pre-election survey is NOT gospel truth because, as SWS puts it, a survey is “simply a scientific collection of many voices” deserving to be heard. Those voices are ONLY being broadcast at a particular time and the results may not hold true when Election Day comes.
However, a survey, though NOT gospel truth, provides analytical base from which statistical predictions may be gathered. Candidates often make use of it to gauge how bad or good they will fare on E-Day.
Ultimately, the discerning mind of any voter chooses if he will be affected or not by survey results. The best thing to do, experts say, is to vote with one’s conscience.
baycas says
2/3
But let Team-PNoy voters consider that the latest Pulse Asia and SWS April 2013 survey results will certainly predict the outcome of the May 13, 2013 election.
Sticking to the same manner of campaign strategy or adjusting the campaign, if needed, will be done based on the survey results. The outcomes of the campaign may be (a) STATIONARY, a candidate’s position remains the same; (b) ASCEND, a candidate’s position goes higher; or (c) DESCEND, a candidate’s position goes lower.
As stated before, Legarda is STATIONARY at No. 1 based on her 1-to-1.5 ranking.* Movement in her ranking is negligible.
The Top Seven candidates (or the first group)…
…hold a comfortable position to win the senatorial election. Those included in this group will likely to be winners because even if they DESCEND they are still within the Magic 12. Actually, the movement in ranking is still within the first 9 places.
Besides, their names appeared in both Pulse Asia and SWS surveys consistently within the first 9 places unlike the rest of the senatorial candidates. That will already translate to five (5) Team PNoy and two (2) UNA winners.
The candidates included in the second group may not feel as comfy as candidates in the first group…
…because their names appeared within the first 9 places in ONLY ONE survey firm. This is an erratic or inconsistent occurrence making their positions unstable.
Poe or Pimentel may stand a chance of replacing Ejercito at No. 7 if they will ASCEND but Poe’s ranking has the most “galaw” in the group making her to DESCEND even below Pimentel’s place.
—–
* As of now we cannot tell the effect of Boy Kuryente’s revelation on Legarda’s possible movement of position. Her fan base coming from UNA supporters (Erap didn’t “discard” her unlike Chiz) and Team PNoy supporters has been solid so far prior to Boy’s “kuryente”.
chit navarro says
from OFF THE HUSTINGS,,,
Are opinion polls accurate?
An opinion poll is a survey, or snapshot, of political opinion. Polls can’t predict the future and usually only give an approximate view of what voters thought last weekend.
“People change their opinion, people focus more on election campaigns,” says ABC election analyst Antony Green..
“If opinion polls always told you what the result of the election would be, then parties wouldn’t spend money campaigning.”
How a poll is carried out matters.
Face-to-face and phone polling are the traditional techniques. In recent years, there has been a rise in the number of automated phone polls and online polls, however many in the industry have concerns about their reliability.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research’s best practice guidelines say the quality of a survey is best judged by “how much attention is given to preventing, measuring and dealing with the many important problems that can arise”, rather than just the size or scope of the polls.
baycas says
Please read 1/3 and 3/3 of this Comment No. 64.
baycas says
3/3
Another reason for the second group to be uncomfortable in their places is because of “junking”.
In the hope of winning or making it into the Magic 12, the Team PNoy candidates in the third group…
…must pull down the candidates ahead of them in the third group as well as the candidates in the second group in order to replace them and win the election.
Junking of candidates by Team-PNoy voters is the likely scenario in accomplishing this.
The second group is all Team PNoy members. The third group is mixed with UNAs.
If Trillanes and Angara will DESCEND so that some in the third group will ASCEND then Team PNoy, and only Team PNoy, members are victims of junking.
If Magsaysay and Hontiveros will ASCEND as a result of the junking of the second group there is a likely chance that Enrile, Honasan, and Zubiri will also ASCEND together with the two, Magsaysay and Hontiveros.
Then the three UNAs will have a chance to benefit more…simply because they are leading the pack in the third group. PLUS there will be quarters who will mix-vote them with some Team PNoys making them ASCEND effectively.
The degree of junking to benefit Hontiveros alone must be much greater in order for her to overtake Enrile and Honasan. However, it will probably be detrimental to the Team PNoy members of the second group, as they will likely DESCEND in order for candidates in the third group to ASCEND.
As to Magsaysay, the degree of junking to benefit him likewise benefits Zubiri as they are almost in the same position. Consequently benefitting also the leaders of the third group, Enrile and Honasan, because the two UNAs will ASCEND ahead of Magsaysay and Zubiri.
If some Team PNoys will become victims and UNAs will benefit more on account of junking then a TEAM-PNOY VOTER must stick to voting STRAIGHT TEAM PNOY because PNoy’s team will always be benefitted in the process. It is always a positive situation.
As it is, the ratio is nine (9) Team PNoys and three (3) UNAs. Perhaps it will really be the maximum win for Team PNoy and Team-PNoy voters must at least preserve this ratio of winners.
Perhaps an optimistic “Salceda 10-2” awaits Team PNoy…if hopefully the survey results are untrue.
Victin Luz says
AGREE ALWAYS SIR @BAYCAS….. IF , IF you have still the weapon to VOTE STRAIGHT LINE UP VOTINGs against the NOW JUNKING SYSTEM of the UNAs…
baycas says
On “band wagoners” and “underdoggers”, SWS’s Mahar Mangahas has this to say…
Read the entire write-up here:
http://www.sws.org.ph/pr0924b1.htm
Victin Luz says
Agree again sir@Baycas……..the Mangahas MEMO/findings was TRUE…..but again we are no longer RELYING on Surveys,….actual scenario na FACTs….. By SALCEDA and LONE campaigning of HONASAN and ENRILE ,,,,,Nortern LUZONs politician were murmuring of JUNKING and POINT SHAVING now……
In our place , when you are no longer included into the MAGIC CIRCLE of 8 would be COUNCILOR….. My KINAKANTA KAMI DYAN…..
Goodbye… I hate to say you go but have a good time…… So long…….complete you HOLIDAYs ( 3 years ) …see you next time ( 2016 )……..bye baby…bye baby ….bye Riza……bye baby….. Bye jun,,,bye Jamby…..bye….SEE YOU NEXT TIME…..
baycas says
Sabi ni Mar Mangahas nga ay:
Binasa mo ba?
Victin Luz says
Agree again sir@Baycas……..the Mangahas MEMO/findings was TRUE…..but again we are no longer RELYING on Surveys,….actual scenario na FACTs….. By SALCEDA and LONE campaigning of HONASAN and ENRILE ,,,,,Nortern LUZONs politician were murmuring of JUNKING and POINT SHAVING now……
In our place , when you are no longer included into the MAGIC CIRCLE of 8 would be COUNCILOR….. My KINAKANTA KAMI DYAN…..
Goodbye… I hate to say you go but have a good time…… So long…….complete your HOLIDAYs ( 3 years ) …see you next time ( 2016 )……..bye baby…bye baby ….bye Riza……bye baby….. Bye jun,,,bye Jamby…..bye….SEE YOU NEXT TIME…..
Of being careless and carefree , JUNK and SHAVE …pretend their was new LOVE ( chance of straight VOTING ) don’t worry about LOVE ( LOSSING )… I know ….hmmm …hmmmm. The tears will only DRIVE YOU AWAY ( further distance on the magic 12 )hmm..hmmmm… Have a good time…
baycas says
Sabi ni Mar Mangahas nga ay:
Binasa mo ba?
Sabi naman ni @leona:
Binasa mo rin ba?
Victin Luz says
Ok sir@Baycas …. He he gusto KO rin talagang manalo tayo ng 12-0 , kaya Lang mahirap na lalo na ngayon , minus LEGARDA na naman ako at Hindi Lang ako marami kami dito sa barrio sir@Baycas… Balik Escudero kami , LEGARDA wag na…. LIAR and dishonest din pala..
chit navarro says
Debating here on how to have control in the Senate, etc. is an exercise in futility! No mathematical equation can control the minds and desires of the sitting senators and the senator-elect. Party-loyalty is NOT a trait of filipino politicans – they are more of butterflies…!
Ask yourself the question :
What have I done to educate my family, circle if friends, neighbours, workmates on the NEED AND IMPORTANCE OF CASTING THEIR VOTE on election day? Remember, it only takes one vote more to win! That vote can be your vote!
Lest we forget about the most basic thing -\
LET US ALL CAMPAING FOR THE PEOPLE TO GO OUT & VOTE
AND TO FILL UP ALL THE 12 SLOTS FOR SENATORS –
LASTLY, TO FILL UP NAMES NOT FROM UNA…. NO ONE THERE DESERVES TO WIN!
raissa says
I have an important update but I’ve decided to upload it tomorrow.
JUst to see it with fresh eyes.
Thanks for your patience, guys.
moonie says
I look forward to reading it. thanks, raissa. pls, make it soon, been biting my finger nails down to the nail bed.
leona says
Among the THREE QUESTIONS here given by Raissa, No. 2 Question is as important as No. 3. No. 1 is subjected to all ‘a million factors’ answerable 3 YEARS from now.
Raissa says “And so, on the eve of elections I will review my final choices based on the three questions.”
This is an imminent situation “QUESTION TWO: Which political bloc do I want to have control of the Senate, the Commission on Appointments, the Presidential Electoral Tribunal and the Senate Electoral Tribunal – The bloc of President Benigno Aquino (PNoy) or the bloc of Vice-President Jejomar Binay?”
…# there are 5 hold-overs of UNA block in the Senate. It needs always a vote of 13 for bills, etc. to pass. While there are 7 allies of TEAM PINOY. TP has 9 candidates and 3 GUESTS. That makes 12 candidates. While UNA has only 9 now.
…## To make a reality of QUESTION TWO or answer it, TEAM PINOY needs at most 7 of it’s candidates win and with 7 allies hold-over that makes = 14, a majority of 2 more than just 13 senators. To win for TEAM PINOY only 6 out it’s 12 candidates will only have 13 allies in the Senate. But it can happen one, again I say this, ONE OF THIS 13 shifts his/her leaning to the UNA block in any bill or bills to be passed. So, TEAM PINOY is on a risk in ONLY having 6 candidates win.
…### thus, TEAM PINOY must have a safer [ not absolutely safe] number at the Senate, a 7 candidates winner to make 14 allies in the body. [but since no president can always control the Senate, the scenario is always expected volatile. That’s is politics we have to accept.]
…& “if” UNA gets 7 candidates as winners plus 5 of it’s hold-over, they have only 12, still a minority and cannot be a block [unless again from the allies of TEAM PINOY one or two shifts] So, UNA must have at 8 candidates winners plus 5 hold-over that makes 13. Will it be possible one or two from it also “shifts” to the TEAM PINOY in passing bills, etc.? Yes. That is politics again.
…^ from the above # and &…it is crucial that QUESTION TWO be crucially considered by supporters from both sides of the FENCE for it’s political leadership.
…* for 2016, a period of 3 YEARS to go, many ‘factors’ are due to happen, the odds is 50% PLUS and more. Many situations will develop at the beginning of the new Congress and the Senate by it’s first session and thereafter up to 2016.
…% So, many voters will try this: %% – maybe Vote only for 8 TP, or 9 for TP or 10 for TP, and voting for some other candidates but not UNA, for the rest to fill up the 12 for TP.
…%% or Vote for 8 UNA, or 9 for UNA or 10 for UNA and the rest the same with % above.
Who should have that “block” in the Senate is crucial. To increase safety for TEAM PINOY, I believe, vote straight LP – 9 and include M,M and H. For @Victin’s idea [ unless already overtaken by events now] vote only for M,M and H. [ correct me if this is not anymore true.]
In short, TEAM PINOY must have the safer number = 14 allies: 7 new TP and 7 hold-overs. And for UNA it must have 8 plus their 5 hold-over makes 13 but it can have also more than 7 new senators to have a “block” in the Senate.
QUESTION ONE is not as imminent as the rest of the last QUESTIONS given by Raissa.
As everyone should know, in POLITICS there is only PERSONAL AMBITION. For the voters and the people, it is not only personal but FOR GENERATIONS to come.
We risk to vote and elect for generations to come or we vote and elect for our polticians’ personal ambitions.
THEREFORE, risk to vote and elect FOR GENERATIONS TO COME. Always Vote for MORE and not less rather than ONE DAY there is NO VOTING anymore!
leona says
” rather than ONE DAY there is NO VOTING anymore!” I mean POLITICAL DYNASTY! Whether one can vote, it is useless. INUTILE voting! A fool’s voting. The dynasters will rule for a long long and a long time.
Victin Luz says
Ma’am@LEONA,, I understand all your assessment and I AGREE if we are after the MAJORITY votes in the Senate to an ordinary BILLs, But let us not forget others , that needed 2/3 votes in the Senate like amending the economic provision of our Constitution or Impeachment of SC justices who are holdovers of GLORYAs GRAFTs… And other LAWs needed for DAANG MATUWID ni PNOY but MOST or FURTHER AWAY the 2016 Presendential Elections… 10 TP must win plus 7 holdover will make 2/3 di po ba….@Leona .
We really need to amend the 1987 Constitution to COORECT PERMANENTLY , so that it will be no more ROOM for wrong interpretation especially the word ” SEPARATELY ” must be included … The Congress , upon a vote of three-forths of all it’s members ; must include voting separately….para iyong mga PILOSOPO sa Lower House ay hindi na makahirit na JOINT VOTATION DAW pag amendment….
Then 3/4 of 24=18……. 10 + 7= 17……. isa nalang ang kailangan sa OPPOSITION na 5 holdover + 2 sure winners this coming election…..
RISKY pag 9 TP ang manalo ngayon , at lalo na pag 8 TP Lang
2/3 of 24= 16……………..9 TP + 7 holdover= 16 …..pag bumaliktad ang 1 TP senator wala na tayong 2/3 votes…..pag 9 TP lang ang papasok sa TP ha…
2/3 of 24. =16…………….8 TP + 7 holdover = 15…………patay na wala kanang 2/3 votes ..
WE REALLY NEED 10 TP next election…… HOW?…….FACT’s coming from the fields , Straight TP line up voting is no longer available to US NOW…..then HOW sir?
Victin Luz says
Correction pls… 2/3 of 24 = 16……..10 TP + 7 PNOY holdover = 17 … One senator more than the 2/3 PNOYs needed for smooth implementation of his TUWID na DAAN..
If 9 TP + 7 PNOYs Holdover = 16 ……RISKY if one PNOY senator NAGBALIMBING……
If 8 TP + 7 PNOY Holdover = 15…….. wala kanang 2/3 votes.
3/4 votes needed = 18 sa amendments of Constitution SO:
10 TP + 7 PNOYs Holdover = 17 ……we just need one Balimbing SENAOR from UNA to make it 18 or 3/4 votes..
International agreements , needed also to PNOYs TUWID na DAAN ilang% ba?
Victin Luz says
How REDEFINING POLITICAL DYNASTY….ilang senador ba ang kailangan? majority Lang ba? 2/3 ba 3/4 ba ? Are we safe if 8 TP + 7 PNOYs holdover =15 ? Others PNOYs agenda for his TUWID na DAAN that needed more than the MAJORITY SENATE VOTES ? PAPAANO PO?
One thing where is your straight voters now in BICOL REGION alone,,, Amy mga kakampi natin doon ay for sure they will INSERT HONASAN their HERO from BICOL REGION sir,,, NASAAN ngayon ang hinihingi mung STRAIGHT VOTING FROM THAT PLACE SIR? NASAAN in other PLACES?
leona says
@Victin…No 24 senators can have one solid answer to each of the possible situations U have given. That’s the ‘life of politics.’ Tthere will be shifting here and there by each of them for anything acc to one’s personal ambition.
Personal ambition comes in. Daming magi-ging balimbing as you say but that’s the game. Still thanking you for your wits though @Victin.
Victin Luz says
Yes mas Leona ,, that’s politics …..But Facts was we all knew how ENRILE landed last during Corys election… Ano ba ang ginawa nila sa Cagayan Valley that propelled him to the senate that time……How did they eliminate si Matandang PIMENTEL sa winning circle…. How did Marcos placed TAMANO last on the winning circle before….. Diba shaving and junking with PERA……they are doing again now in many places in our country,,, dapat malaman natin lahat nyan…. Transparent tayo sa katotohanan na mga nangyayari at mangyayari ma’am@leona… Dahil Kung matalo man ang tatlo ay alam nila Kung BAKIT…….. Ma’am Leona, Ito naman ay napapagusapan lang po….si mayor Hagedorn mga dito is now asking US just VOTE for his wife for Mayor ,,,wala na syang pakialam Kung sino ang ilagay mo sa VICE, na kandidato ang kanyang pamangkin na anak ng kuya Nya na kandiadato din sa congressman….at mga incumbent na councilors Nya , dahil ayaw na ng tao sa kanila….ilinulusut na Lang Nya ay ang asawa Nya……Si HONASAN galing dito and met with Official candidates of TEAM PNOY here…. Hindi si Alvarez na kakampi nya ha , Kung Hindi Sina Matillano na classmate Nya sa PMA for congreessman dinn…. Sa Bicol , BAYANI NILA si HONASAN , talagang isasama sya sa TEAM PNOY in favor who? Napaguusapan Lang po ma’am@ Leona… DIRTY schemes they did but it works….