Inside Philippine politics & beyond

“In Thailand, instability is a kind of stability” – senior Asian journalist

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By Raissa Robles

TOKYO – Today I learned a lot while attending a journalists’ conference on regional security in Tokyo sponsored by The Japan Institute of International Affairs.

Since the conference was governed by a somewhate revised version of Chatham House rules – which in journo speak simply means – you can quote but no name attribution unless you were able to ask permission  – the speakers were quite frank.

I’d like to share with you guys some of the things I learned.

I realized that countries so close together in Southeast Asia could see the same thing in different perspectives. Which is why talking with each other  is so important.

For instance, while many watchers of Thailand are wringing their hands over the deteriorating political situation there, one senior journalist indicated he wasn’t that bothered about it because “in Thailand, instability is a kind of stability.”

I guess the Thai’s ability to accept chaos as part of life helps them cope.

* * *

Several participants voiced the opinion that the United States was acting “like a part time power” in Asia.

* * *

At least one journalist voiced the sentiment that ASEAN countries should not be required to choose between China and Japan but can have meaningful relations with both countries.

Another journalist said that ASEAN, despite its shortcomings and handicaps, could still play a role in resolving disputes between countries.

* * *

One journalist pointed out that it was when ASEAN took a united stand that it was able to persuade China to sign the 2002 “Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.”

* * *

One participant bluntly told me during a break that the Philippines should not have unilaterally gone to the United Nations International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) and filed an arbitral complaint against China. It should have consulted ASEAN first. The Philippines lost a lot of goodwill points by doing that.

The participant also had the impression  that President Benigno Aquino has never traveled on a state visit to any of the ASEAN countries. But I told him that from what I recall, his first official state visit was to Vietnam. Also, it did look that way because he timed his visits with an internatiional meeting he had to attend like ASEAN.

* * *

During the delicious dinner afterward, I was fortunate to have as one of my seatmates Ravi Velloor, the Foreign Editor of The Straits Times in Singapore. He regaled us with anecdotes of his interviews with the former Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohd. He recalled that one time, Dr, Mahathir was incensed at the way the ratings agencies Standard and Poor’s as well as Moody’s had downgraded the ringgit.

He asked Dr. Mahathir to comment and the PM shot back at those ratings agencies, saying their standards were poor and sometimes they’re moody.

*  *  *

Comments

  1. gents and ladies:

    please be aware, my nag hack ng email address ko and was sending spam asking for help, asking money, the email the hacker used is [email protected]

    all my contacts were deleted as well as the sent and inbox so that i cannot give warnings to those people.

  2. Off-topic:
    PNoy ‘mocks’ Xinhua, ‘thanks’ writer for support
    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/focus/02/07/14/pnoy-mocks-xinhua-thanks-writer-support

    Note:
    “Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino III, who has taken an inflammatory approach … has never been a great candidate for a wise statesman in the region,”-Xinhua News

    Pnoy’s blunt reply really proves that he is a true statesman even being belittled as “ignorant and amateurish” by the author of the Xinhua news article. Hopefully we (as Filipinos) pass the ABS-CBN news link above so it reaches Xinhua.

    • From the link above:
      “Mr. Aquino, who is not married, lives in a small cottage behind the presidential palace instead of in the luxurious palace itself. He said he tries to relax before going to sleep each night either by listening to music — often jazz — or pursuing his passion as an amateur historian, reading military journals, some about World War II.”

      I didn’t know that. I always though that due to security reasons a president sleeps inside the palace.

      Manila won’t hit back at Hong Kong’s visa curbs over bus siege tragedy -by Raissa
      http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1421006/manila-wont-hit-back-hong-kongs-visa-curbs-over-2010-tragedy

      Beijing is trying to find a leverage against the Philippines for it to overturn its decision to bring the dispute to ITLOS. They are looking for ways to “justify” possible future sanctions towards the Philippines because the last time they did (cavendish banana) the backlash was against them.

      Also on Sept 5, 2013 Chinese customs holds up samples from the Philippines in a ASEAN trade show that was held in Nanning China.

      What will Beijing gain by helping HK?
      1. Hong-kong will be drawn more closer towards Beijing, showing the benefits of having a “big brother” who will fight against those they (HK) see that don’t want appease their demands. And it might change their current minds towards 2017 “greater access universal suffrage push.”

      Link: http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1421007/beijing-reluctant-give-hong-kong-democrats-over-reform-says-adviser

      2. It will justify any sanctions towards the Philippines without any backlash from other countries and organizations (WTO) because Beijing can claim that they impose sanctions due to the slow response of the Philippine government to Hong-Kong’s demands.

      3. Hurting Philippines economy and pitting Filipino against Filipino (Aquino vs OFW that might lose their job).

  4. Off-Topic:
    Philippine Congressman Winston Castelo calls for retaliation against Hong Kong in hostage tragedy row by Raissa Robles

    http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1419473/philippine-congressman-winston-castelo-calls-retaliation-against-hong#comments

    Thank you ulit Raissa for the news. I’m glad that you took the time to write a news that is more important for the Philippines. Things that will affect our national interest and fellow countrymen outside the Philippines.

    Rant:
    As a news junkie, I’m quite disappointed for the two huge media companies in PH both ABS-CBN and GMA 7 for sensationalizing the issue about Vhong Navarro raising it into a national level. Just compare the air-time Navarro’s is getting besides news that are more relevant to our countries national interest,people. Naumay ako ng isang linggo simula UKG->TV Patrol hanggang sa Bandila puro na lang news vying to get the people’s sympathy towards Navarro’s side of the story.

    Iisa lang naman ang biktima sa alitan ni Cedric Lee,Deniece Cornejo at Vhong Navarro. Si Tanya na GF ni Navarro. Sa tagal na binigay na air-time sa dalawang magkabilang panig yung kaisa-isang babae na dalawang ulit (Jan 17 & 22) na niloko ay siya pa yung hindi na bigyan ng air-time to air her side of the story.

    Nasapawan pa yung mga balita patungkol sa HK sanctions, child soldiers na ni recruit ng BIFF, yung bagyong basyang kung nakapaghanda na ba yung mga LGU at yung mga sundalo na nasaktan o namatay laban sa BIFF.

    Nasapawan lahat sila ni Vhong.

    • understand that a lot of Pnoys are fond of artistas. siguro halos tayo lang dito ang di gaanong mesmerized ng kanilang kinang sa pilak na tabing.
      ang abs at gma ay may pinangangalagaang negosyo at mas naroon ang focus ng mga tauhan nila. ang kita mula sa pagpapahayag. they can’t afford that…
      dito sa cpm, lahat gratis.
      madam raissa earns not in this blog.

  5. Off topic: KUDOS TO MVP for allowing the masses, for the first time, to view the live Super Ball XLVIII tomorrow at TV 5, 7:30am

    • dapat nga ang ating mga politicos(esp yung mga plunderers) ay hindi basta makalabas ng bansa natin.
      pag sila ay may kaso, gamit pa nila ang ating buwis para makalibre sila sa pag-uusig ng batas.
      gisang-gisa tayo sa sarili nating mantika. ultimong mga nakakabit sa kanilang kabit ay subsidized pa ng gobyerno.

      • vicarious liability, I think hongkongers will go for the the biggest or highest amount of compensation they can get. if it’s apology they want, they would have already accepted erap’s apology. better if PNoy apologized and then hit him with compensation demand later on. compared to erap, PNoy has better access to pera sa kaban ng bayan, and can pay 3x the amount erap can.

        those 3senadores keen for PNoy to apologize, they can do it themselves later on when they become president of the republic. they can even swim all the way to hongkong, and grovel there. magmaka-awa. let hongkongers see how contrite and sorry they truly are.

      • “The refusal to apologise I find hard to understand.” — Bong-Bong Marcos.

        He actually said that? The son of a… BEACH. He who thinks there was nothing evil with his father’s rule? He who refuses to acknowledge the excesses of his father’s regime?

        • I supposed bong marcos will make it his election promise that he will apologize to hongkong once he becomes president.

  7. Yellow (royalist) vs. Red (Thaksin)- reminiscent of Edsa Uno.

    At present, the incumbent prime minister of Thailand is Yangkuk Shinwatra, younger sister of billionaire and former ruler, Thaksin Shinwatra, who is on exile in Dubai following a military coup on charges of corruption.

    The yellow crowd are now protesting in the streets of Bangkok and demanding the resignation of the beleaguered Yangkuk, who in turn scheduled an early election but the protesters would have none of it claiming that the voters have been bought byThaksin.

    A deadlock is hurting the economy of Thailand and the markets don’t like instability and uncertainty. Our country is lucky and business is booming – many thanks to PNoy.

    • [email protected]

      The late Billy Esposo described Professor Scott Thompson as follows:

      “New York Times and New Straits Times columnist W. Scott Thompson, D.Phil., has a deep appreciation of the political, social and economic dynamics of our country. Scott has earned the trust of the highest officials of the US government. Scott is Professor Emeritus at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy and held four presidential appointments in American administrations.”

      In addition I believe that Professor Thompson has deep wide ranging knowledge of geo-politics in ASEAN region.

    • The demise of King Bhumibol looms in the horizon. An internecine war in Thailand is just a matter of time which could erase all economic gains prevailing and abolish the monarchy absolutely the way France had it minus the guillotines.

  9. Thailand is a world’s top tourists destination by the Americans and Europeans If Philippines can have an in-depth study why investors and tourists flock to Thailand, then we can apply its success factors in our country. We have to know and learn why other countries make it and Philippines doesn’t, we have to learn lessons on how do they do it – from their electricity rates, medical tourism, sex tourism, safety of the tourists / investors, belongings and properties (from Muslims, NPA, kidnappers, pickpocketters, police bribery,etc).

    Our government should not be just men of words but also men of actions / doers.

      • He he ,,,@vander like the GURKA troops …kaya lang this well trained/disciplne troops hindi daw nababayaran o natataasan ng bayad ONCE their loyalty are already compromise to their country or to a group if they are hired as mercenaries… sa atin pag napakitaan mo ng mas malaking DATUNG o BALITOK ( gold ) babaliktad na most , they might shoot their former recruiters.. He he…tsaka tayo nakin din ng tao pag lasing o high on drugs but not the Gurkas , pag sinabing eat your enemies he he iluluto ka nila sa silyasi with all the rekados ( spices ) ala linagang baka…totoo ba ito @ vander?

        • @victin,
          oo, ganon din ang nepalese.
          at parang ganon din ang burmese, not so sure.
          pero sa thais at nepalese, i heard right from the horse’s mouth.
          ilan kong tauhan sa qatar ang nagkwento mismo sa akin.
          “kaya mabait ako sa kanila”. yun ang lagi naming biruan para di ako kainin…:)

  10. “Another journalist said that ASEAN, despite its shortcomings and handicaps, could still play a role in resolving disputes between countries.”
    i don’t bite that statement. asean is under china’s clout.

    • sabi pa nila prez aquino never state visit asian countries. well, they can come and state visit us, bringing with them their families and friends, have vacation here. we have many scenic spots and places of interests. we are one big happy family. and rightly so, china drew the 9dash line. it caused uncertainties in our country, south korea, taiwan and japan.

      newsreports told us cambodia is getting very friendly with china and got economic boost. in exchange for what, we dont know. lately, when china conducted naval exercise, its navy made incursion into malaysian waters. malaysia deny it. maybe, malaysia is too shamed to admit they were caught sleeping – again. their shores were left unguarded and unmanned the way they were when tausogs from the sultanate in mindanao lusob duon sa sabah not long ago.

      I think we did right in taking china to ITLOS. sovereignty 1st, goodwill 2nd.

      • @but moonie,,until now ITLOS never removed those China’s structures at Mischief reefs ,nor we are now of blank news on Scarborough Shoal Chinese Navy’s build up… And until now why dont we construct concrete outpost that ataol near Mischief reef replacing that delapidatedhilipppines ship as barracks of our Navy…

        Bringing to ITLOS or UNCLOs our sea boundary problems with China was very easy with us but implementing the rules or guidelines that favors the Philipppines , seems very hard to be implemented… What happen now to our joint explorations with China and other Nations ? May ngipin ba ang ITLOS especially against CHINA?

        • Sana we have to fund and build also a concrete structure’s at Scarborough Shoal a message to the Chinese we really own that shoal an within the 200NM from Zamabales shore…

          We must now also construct an outpost or land/sea mark to the shallow waters on the Pacific Ocean side , those within our 200NM which was discovered to be rich with so many kinds of nautral resources …he he baka USA naman ang makinabang sa mga iyan or Australia in a guise of JOINT JOINT … bakit hindi kasi natin plantsahin na ngayon ang dapat sa atin talaga..ano pa kaya ang hinihintay natin para wala nang mag angkin na iba ang ” lulubug lilitaw na lupa ” sa bandang pacipic ocean na sakop ng sea boundary natin?

        • victin, I dont think it’s ITLOS ‘ job to remove those structures in our reef. it’s our job to clean our own backyard.

          last year, I’ve read in abs-cbnnews.com, AFP chief apologized and said belatedly that those structures have been there in the shoal long before china made incursions. they were previously put there by US navy as launching pads and markers for joint naval exercises with our navy. further, upon examination, prez aquino said those structures are not harmful to marine life and can stay. so, we dont have to worry about those structures anymore.

          the good news is we might have our ITLOS hearing before 2014 is over. fingers crossed.

        • Sana ganoon mga @moonie,, pero baka kasi mangyari na naman ang kagaya ng nangyari noon na UNCLO delimited our sea boundaries sa may concrete marker lang , that was why , UNCLOS ordered to draw our boundaries at a point with a conrecte marker a permanent one … The abandoned ship was not permannent , ang kaso ang mischief reef na malapit lang doon and the worse mischief reefs was within our 200NM and the military forttress thereat was constructed and being monitored ny our AFP , still hindi man lang tayo sumabay na patayuan na kahit maliit na concrete outpost sa lugar ng barkong abadonado ng Pilipinas na halos i yhinkmonlynatound 3 miles ang layo sa mischief reef and within our sovereignty pa, Kaya tuloy tayo pa ang pinapaalis ng CHINA…

      • @moonie,
        Because of Cambodia’s vast natural resources and cheap labor that’s why China are deviously helping them, and also if Cambodia becomes their pet it would give china a strategic footprint against Vietnam(sino- vietnam war), China tried the same tactics with our motherland Philippines( west Phil. Sea dispute) by unilateral engagement which means BUYING OUT with cash – good thing PNOY did not level with them instead brought it to ITLOS/ smart move , coz ser PNOY loves reading history( he can’t be fooled ).

  11. King Bhumibol is one of the richest man on earth with about $30 billions. Fellow billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra of the red shirts from the North was ousted by the royalists and yellow shirts in 2006 due to atrocities committed by the regime. The red shirts rioted and brought back Thaksin to power in the 2011 elections through her sister Yingluck who is the present prime minister of Thailand. The royalists and yellow shirts are now protesting the plan of PM Yingluck Shinawatra to grant general amnesty to political offenders including his brother Thaksin.

    In all these instabilities there is the common thread that is King Bhumibol who many perceived as the stabilizing factor in solving chaos and violence in Bangkok. But many also see him as the destabilizing force being a skillful tactician and the power behind some coups in Thailand. After staying in the hospital for 4 years due to serious illness, he went home to one of his palaces farther South about 260 kilometers from Bangkok. So it seems that PM Yingluck is now on her own to appease the royalists and yellow shirts who are identified with people close to the King. And the King is purportedly very sickly and far away.

    Rightly, in Thailand short lived stability comes from protracted conditions of instability. But for how long can the king hold back the (un)civil war in Thailand that is, red North versus yellow South.

  12. hello po, palagay ko lang
    1. sa Thailand, if I were an investor hindi ako maginvest kasi meron silang stable instability.
    sa pilipinas, hindi din ako maginvest kasi merong unstable power rates heh, heh…
    2. all those affected by the 9dash line ng China could benefit if unclos would rule in favor of the philippines. divide and conquer is still a good strategy. china’s moves affect only the philippines and japan, but once these 2 have folded up, if ever they do, the other countries would be next. that comment about the philippines going to asean first before going to unclos could not have resulted to anything because china is also there, and the group is divided.
    3. visits to other countries are usually by invitation. has our president rejected any invitation?

    • I think asean countries are cautious in inviting prez aquino, afraid to risk the ire of china. we used to be buddy with hongkong but when hongkong diverted back to china, we lose the buddy-buddy. now, only japan and south korea are forthright with us. the rest of asean are probably waiting the result of our case against china.

  13. …nice stable Thailand!

    …in ‘Pinas…nice stable CORRUPTIONS!

    when will it become unstable or ‘instable’ ? Not soon!

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