Analysis by Raïssa Robles
There are now reports of a possible team up of Vice President Jejomar Binay with Governor-actress Vilma Santos in 2016. Or Binay with a prominent businessman as his running mate.
This is probably the start of a season where we will see various strange combinations floated about.
In this context, let me let me throw in a possible combination: that Aquino could run for vice president. And I don’t mean Kris, as some are suggesting.
But first, let me explain why I’m doing this. When I was in Tokyo recently, a senior editor of a Japanese newspaper told me the Philippines was about to enter “a period of instability” because in 2016, President Benigno Aquino III would be stepping down from office and be replaced by who knows what.
Earlier, I was told the same concern by a prominent American businessman in Manila who spoke to me on condition of anonymity. The businessman wondered who would replace Aquino who, he noted, could not run again.
Hmm. It seems both men believe that Aquino lends political stability to the system.
To both the businessman and the Japanese editor my reply was the same: Of course he can run again.
PNoy (as he is popularly called) can run for Vice-President, I said.
My reply was met with skepticism. And so I had to explain how this would effectively change the current political landscape that had only Vice-President Jejomar Binay and Local Governments Secretary Mar Roxas as the main presidential contenders.
Before I go on, I would like to stress that I am neither endorsing nor advocating PNoy’s running again. I am simply analyzing and pointing out the possibilities as a political commentator.
Let’s look at two important aspects of the idea:
- First, the constitutionality of such a move.
- Second, the implications of such a move on Philippine politics.
Politics is like entertainment in that it shares some characteristics with the world of movies and entertainment. Political strategists play around with combinations and see what team-ups could produce a box office hit, in this case, electoral victories.
President Aquino is barred by the Philippine Constitution only from running for President, but not from running for Vice-President or any other political office. Given his name recall nationwide and his track record, he is probably a shoe-in if he runs for vice-president.
But why would his party even consider fielding him for the vice-presidency — a spare tire position? They might consider any or all of the following points.
First, it is very likely that VP Binay will run for President in 2016. And Binay could win. If VP Binay and PNoy win – in this case, we would have a Bi-Noy scenario instead of the current Noy-Bi one – then VP Binay’s behavior might be affected by his knowledge of who his stand-by successor is.
Second, PNoy could campaign for vice-president by telling voters – ‘look, vote for the presidential candidate I endorse and for me because I’m his seal of good housekeeping. I am not going to meddle or anything. I will just be there to make sure he walks the straight and narrow.’
Presuming Aquino endorses Mar Roxas, will that be enough to make Mar Roxas win? Frankly, I don’t know at this point because there are other issues swirling around Roxas which he has not addressed.
Will PNoy look at 2016 the way President Fidel Ramos looked at 1998? If you recall, Ramos fielded House Speaker Jose de Venecia out of a sense of loyalty, gratitude and friendship even though many voters clearly did not like De Venecia.
Third, what if PNoy and the Liberal Party were to pick someone other than Roxas? That would make things truly interesting.
Then there is this one other scenario to consider, remote but possible: PNoy teams up with someone who will promise to step down so PNoy can continue being President.
Are these far-fetched? Not in our world of politics where a president is ousted, then convicted, then pardoned, then allowed to run again, then defeated, then runs for mayor and wins.
The last two years of a president’s term are usually called the lame duck years. But just a hint – or threat – of running for the VP post could erase that perception for PNoy.
So when people tell me they are afraid of what would happen in 2016, my reply is – you have to be open to the possibilities. What will happen will simply surprise you.
Eric Lee says
2016 will be my fearful year because if Pinoy will step down, we will all go back to dirty Politics. We all know only Pinoy is the non-Corrupt President we have experience to live with and the only president we ever have and most of all Pinoy is doing great today. He is the only president who is willing to protect us from China by launching a war signal through buying jets and warship and initiated the signing of the defense treaty with the US in case war erupted in the South China Sea and authored to modernized the AFP in preparation for war against abuse of China for decade and no president in our generation has done it because of fear with China. More-fully, only Pinoy has the balls to pin down and imprisoned known Criminals like Cedric Lee because of his counterpart the DOJ and even impeached the abusive former Chief Justice of the supreme court and many corrupt crony of Arroyo. Only Pinoy has the guts to pin down political Graft and Corruption by putting to jail Former president Arroyo and prepares cases of plunder against her senate pork barrel controversy. Who else can do these? Who has the balls to do these mighty act of bravery? No One! I don’t trust Binay or any of the Political people I’ve seen since childhood in Malacanang, Senate and congress. WE ENCOURAGE PINOY TO STAY AS PRESIDENT on 2016 because of His Probity, Honestly and Great principles He inherited from his mom especially from his dad. More Power to you Pinoy!
I would rather post this piece to the latest thread and will be relevant still.
Go for Duterte-Aquino tandem!!!
Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte for president
Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino for vice president!!!
This is for a better future of the country.
Countless positive possibilities to mention!!! #plsSupport
Juan Barili says
With the SC precedent of the 2 term GMA and Estradas second run approval Pnoy merely needs to resign 5 minutes before his term ends and he will be eligible to run for president again. Anything is possible in a nation which refuses to follow its own constitution.
Frm Alan Robles HOT MANILA …”He and his family stole at least US$10 billion and – together with cronies – looted the treasury, destroyed Philippine institutions, fostered widespread corruption and torched the economy.’ http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/blogs/opinions/03/25/14/marcos-loyalists-online
PCGG I think gave up getting more of the looted treasury. How much was actually recovered in ‘pesos and $$?’ The problem was the ‘due process of law’ that F. Marcos disregarded was applied to him and his family with all softies and leniency! Thus, was it a difficult task in recovering.
Next time, the harshest law should be applied for such grand scale looting. A shame of all the un-recovered loot etc.
Victin Luz says
So many of them ” TUTA ” ni MCCOY in every Government Offices before remain unpunished especially to those who flew with HIM to Hawaii . many were dead but the LOOTs they had taken are now enjoyed by their heirs….those who occupied middle mangement before…heirs live with the same way as their ” tuta parents ” before…
May I again implore you to upload the comments in the spam folder?
Victin Luz says
@sir Baycas ,,,NO MATTER or WHATEVER you want to be UPLOADED here in the blog, or CALL a Supreme Court Justice’s to INTERPRET the case of CUDIA….you can not ERASE that ” DELIBERATE INTENT ” on the PMA Honor Code System…in relation to the FACTs that almost everybody KNEW that ” our class ” as stated by CUDIA reffered not to all of the class… WALA iyang LYING ….nahingi ng Honor Code nila nang DELIBERATE INTENT before you can condemn a cadet to be lying…..
Victin Luz says
INTENT only will not suffice . Kasi without the word ” Deliberate ” …you can not say it was Malicious or Willful..it can be an honest mistake or a mistakes by Cudia with the insinuantions of the HC and tactical officers / instructors for Cudia to cling with the word ” OUR CLASS “.
I was particularly hoping to get an entirely different perspective from @netty.
@netty’s comment, or other relevant comments for this blog–digression or not, possibly went into the spam folder. Please publish them.
Thanks in advance, @raissa.
Comment No. 110 attests to the missing @netty’s opinion…
Sui Generis III says
i dont think noynoy will buy this idea because it will go against the aquino principle.
I’d like to use this forum to float the idea of chiz escudero – grace poe tandem for 2016.
i think chiz is the only person who can forge a deal between he liberal party and PMP.
Chiz maintains a solid relationship with both party bigwigs. Both parties must realized that they have to compromise to beat the successful slow and steady face of Binay Campaign force. Binay is so intoxicated with this success that he made a major blunder of leaving the UNA because he doesn’t want to be associated with PDAF scandal.
I am sure ERAP now hold grudge against binay. But any politician who do not know the genius of estrada campaign has no business in philippines politics.
The irony of Mutually Assured Destruction campaign propaganda for 2016 is that both the admin and the opposition prospective bets were already annihilated. Admin nuking the opposition in PDAF cases and opposition retaliating using DAP and calamity management boo-boo.
This present the perfect opportunity for the Chiz-Grace tandem. They are unscathed from the black propaganda onslaught and with no major issues in corruption. I am sure this tandem will be supported by erap he owe it to FPJ. This will also solve the Liberal dilemma of not having a winner. Last 2013, Chiz got 17M vote as INDEPENDENT while Grace Poe is No.1 with 20M vote also INDEPENDENT. See the potential? PMP and LIBERAL can forge alliance and choosing INDEPENDENTS as common bet. No complication just coalition to win the election.
Its a win-win solution.
I hope chiz read this and may he muster the courage to do what is right for our nation.
mar roxas must concede his ambition if he really love this country. he has no chance of winning in 2016 and he just don’t have the destiny to be our leader.
Though Jinggoy has been groomed for VP now is not the time anyway he is still young and he has to prove his innocence first. Bong R. for VP… Nevermind.
Heart Evangelista will be a very pretty first lady!
Chiz Escudero for president
Grace Poe for VP
Victin Luz says
@ Sue Generis…..AGREE ako dyan…patok iyan….NO WAY for BINAY to be our candidate and can be elected as our P….more to NO WAY for ROXAS to be our candidate for P or even VP again ,,he got no CHANCE at all….senador nalang sya ..
Victin Luz says
Si Revilla naman ,,he he MAG PANDAY nalang sya.
BEING IN CONTROL OF THE CIRCUMSTANCES WHEN ISSUING WRITTEN EXPLANATIONS IN AN INVESTIGATION (Peer Review)
Knowing fully well that OR432 was already finished (and you even got up and passed your exam paper), your class was by then dismissed, your class marched to the next subject ENG412, and you broke ranks from your class…
1. Could ya still have written on the delinquency report that,
Knowing fully well that you previously issued a written explanation of your tardiness that your class was dismissed a (little) bit late, your class already marched to the next subject ENG412 on time at 1500H, and you broke ranks from your class…
2. Could ya still have written on the appeal that,
What could be the answer from a reasonable cadet (if ever you are also a cadet) similarly situated in the particular circumstances as Cudia was in…likewise considering that you cannot afford your grades, esp. Conduct, to be pulled down by penalties as it may greatly affect your final academic ranking?
Could ya also insist on issuing written statements that are misleading and contrary to the truth? (Did ya intend to deceive?)
Being in control of the situation in issuing written statements, could ya also create confusion just so ya can preserve yar stellar conduct grade? (Did ya intend to take undue advantage?)
Victin Luz says
The Honor Committe asked for a DELIBERATE…..he he …it was NOT….WILLFUL information ,deliberate information for an Honor Committee to SAY LYING,,,but it was not…sorry NO lying still.
Victin Luz says
After finishing an examination and passed ypur paper , that does not 100% means you are already dismissed ….he he where did you get that Computation/Rescission/Continuation @sir Baycas ? After passing you examination papers ,it will end your CLASS? He he where in this word are like that? Only at PMA togethrer with their HC maybe..he he
Victin Luz says
The fact that you/they wanted an answer of CUDIA ” with …and i came directly to my 4th period class ” in relation to the Intellegent Quest ( IQ ) of all the cadet’s at PMA spicifically member’s of the Honor Committee especially those classmate’s of Cudia on the same class,,, NO WAY that they can INTERPET ” OUR CLASS ” was a deliberate information to be costrued as LYING within the purview of the PMA Honor Code system ,,,COPIED COPIED without thinking by the Philippine Military Academy from WEST POINT and wrong ly implemeted to Cudia and maybe other’s PMA cases he he , THE DAY BEFORE Cudia’s PMA case and that was yesterday … DELIBERATE DE NADA…
Victin Luz says
Only persons or to be exact an Honor Committee member’s having an ILL-WIL with CUDIA will say he was LYING… He he… Ika nga ni Meriam Tupak Santiago @Baycas ..maghalukay ka pa ng mas magandang ebidensya laban sa mga grafters ng PDAF para hindi sayang ang oras nya sa committee hearing na kanyang dinadaluhan…. I have not seen the movie ” divergent ” yet @baycas but according to thrillers it seems the story although not exactly the Cudia case ,,the Hero’es there can be parrallel to Cudia and family …he he
To verify at what time he submitted his paper, read his affidavit here:
Victin Luz says
I believed @baycas All of your justification’s posted here but it only shows that everybody/all of Cudia’s classmates knew that they, except some were late , especially Cudia..right @baycas,, so why will ( CUDIA and the rest of his classmates who are not a little bit late ) and you probably INTERPRET now that ” OUR CLASS ” pertains to all of the class ? so it is very much safer to say ” OUR CLASS ” means Cudia at other cadets were a little bit late , not thevwhole class….ILL-WILL will be the only reason for the HC concluding that it was a DELIBERATE INFORMATION given by Cudia does he is lying…[email protected] ,,sa iyong mga post na iyan ha…. Without that DELIBERATE INTENT …..West Point Honor System said NO LYING…ikaw nag post nito…ang tataas ng IQ nila @baycas…kung ako si Cudia bakit ko naman gagawa ng TRICKs or MISLEADs…ay alam na alam ko naman na na dismiss silang nauna… ” OUR CLASS ” although plural literally for Cudia ,it was not a DELIBERATE ONTENT on his part to say/written so…
Victin Luz says
Tardiness is a serious offense , TRUE @baycas , especially LYING…but to be considered lying , a vague and ambigous information must be COUPLED WITH a deliberate deceiveness, inten, misleading facts…..hindi kay Cudia nor the HC members lalong lalo na sa mga kaklase ni Cudia na myembro ng HC,, dahil bali-baliktadin man nati ang pangyayari , dahil alam nila at ni Cudia na ang tinutukuy nyang ” OUR CLASS ” ay petaining NOT to the whole class….open book iyon diba…. ngayon uulitin ko kung ang nasa HC ay wala sanang kaalam alam na hindi late ang karamihan sa mga kaklase ni Cudia ,,DELIBERATE iyan dahil kung hindi na sila mag ulirat ng mas malalim ay ibig sabihin , gustong magpalusut talaga si Cudia… Hindi naman mga , OPEN BOOK na sila lang na kaunti ang ” a little bit late..
I highly suggest that you just re-read all of my comments chronologically starting from Comment No. 99.
The Honor Committee are PMA cadets…the classmates who were late along with Cudia and who were Cudia’s witnesses are likewise PMA cadets, thus, the “reasonable person” standard applies to their line of thinking during the course of the investigation and decision.
My comment went poof!
Anyway, @Victin Luz,
I highly suggest you just re-read my past comments chronologically starting from Comment No. 99.
sorry about that. you are right. It went into spam.
During cross examination of a trial prosecutor, I am sure that Cudia’s intention to deceive and take undue advantage would be unmasked definitely and clearly. That is if Cudia had the guts to take the witness stand. Leading questions are allowed in cross examination of a witness where same witness, in most questions, has no option but to answer YES or NO. Where the cross examiner asks questions which answers he or she already knows or expects.
BTW I also wrote in my missing post that If the OR432 or 4th period class dismissal were done “on time” at 1500H, all the other members of the class would have been late like Cudia. It is because Cudia, et. al. verified their grades with Dr. Costales AFTER the OR432 class. So that if Cudia were not telling a lie, it would be true that the class ended or was dismissed “on time” at 1500H. But such truth would make all the class members late for the next class. So we have two tests of truth. All the members of OR432 class were late if Cudia were telling the truth. And, all the other members (excluding Cudia, et. al.) of OR432 class were NOT late if Cudia were telling a LIE.
The truth is that all the other members of OR432 class were not late and Cudia was telling a LIE.
He hid behind his “class”. He will attempt to hide behind his professor when the re-investigating panel will summon him. Rather than face his tardiness with explanations readily, squarely, and forthrightly crafted ( http://raissarobles.com/2014/03/03/president-aquino-can-run-in-2016-without-amending-the-constitution/comment-page-2/#comment-133877 ), he chose to do otherwise given that he had control of the circumstances in writing these explanations. His writings are prima facie evidence of his lying.
I maintain…he recently exited the gate without the ideals accorded to PMAers.
Victin Luz says
No @baycas… Everybody or all of us Filipinos KNEW on what IDEALs the PMA GOT? Tell me @Baycas…Cudia might be exiting from soldiery , because he feels that there was no IDEALs can be taken from PMA.. NADA…FACTs will prove about their GRADUATEs… Enumerate some @baycas
Like Cudia, fallacy of generalization is what you’re advocating…
Not ALL of the class…Not ALL Filipinos…
Victin Luz says
No he he Cudia was brave and honest ,,, His case straingtened the implementation of Honor Code system of the PMA copied from West Point SPICIFICALLY …when a cadet can be convicted of LYING he he CRYSTAL CLEAR….DELIBERATE INTENT is needed… No fallacy by Cudia… For the Honor Committee members, MAYROON @sir Baycas
Victin Luz says
He he PINAINAN nila si CUDIA @baycas but he did not bite them…. If he change or ” OUR CLASS ” plural into singular ha ha [email protected] sir baycas iyan o dyan na ang malinaw na malinaw na si CUDIA ay may DELIBERATE INTENT…. He he analyze mo kasing maige….
News! Family of Cadet Cudia says ‘No more PMA for him. He decided to take up law course instead’ DZMM Abs-Cbn Tv radio.
Yea…no code of honor in that course but many very many “Codes” to study on!
Good luck to him!
@ Leona, won’t know if my missing comment would re-surfaced @ Baycas request, wow you are reading everyone’s bits and pieces. You are getting me [email protected] Baycas . It’s about my inaction,as a sister to give my unconditional support to my brother’s trouble during his last year in college requiring the ROTC certificate to be presented ( now you see , now you don’t curriculum) which he wasn’t able to do, that prevented him to write the Med-Tech Board exam.He was infected with Hep while in training and all that reasons that was not rectified timely. It ended very negative even though he was urged to pay for it, which everyone was doing at that time, it’s now a sad episode of our experiences. He got into another field, ironic that this time the ROTC was not required anymore. I feel sorry when I read that even the sister and the whole family are demonized by being vocal about the case and supporting Cudia’s journey… why not?
I am agreeable that he himself is considering an option to carry on with his promising life as per the “Compassionate justice” still to be rendered. .It is just funny that he is taking Law as another career when some if not all considers this as the arena of truths and lies and deception to arrive @ a goal vice versa. Yes, I still consider him a soldier so I wil tell him, March your way soldier and take up Law …(Lambast, Annihilate the Wackos in the PMA), peace guys,,, let’s find a way back into love:))) What I tell to all my worthwhile friends when they are dumped by their significant others, “It’ s not your loss, it is their loss.”
Let’s just say that I eliminate my biases by reading the facts that I could read and imbibe in a way all the comments about a subject matter that I could read.
Let’s also mention, perhaps, that I put more weight in the ‘quality’ rather than ‘quantity’ to shape my opinion and/or analysis.
On December 19, 2013 Cudia wrote in his request for reconsideration of meted punishment that “the 4th period class ended 1500H.” This is half truth and half lie. It is true that OR432 was scheduled to end at 1500H. But the same class was actually dismissed before 1500H as shown in the next paragraphs. And Cudia wanted to convey the idea – with intent to deceive – that OR432 class was dismissed by Dr. Costales “on time” at 1500H.
On January 24, 2014 Dr. Costales certified that Cudia and two other cadets verified their grades with her “AFTER the OR432 class” and that she could not recall the specific time she dismissed the class. The written appeal of Cudia also on January 24, 2014 included a portion attested by Dr. Costales that OR432 class “ended on time (1500H).” This again is half truth and half lie. It is true that OR432 class ended within the scheduled period which ends 1500H. But OR432 class actually ended before 1500H, NOT “on time (1500H).”
To determine the time of dismissal Dr. Costales suggested in her certification to verify it from other members of the class or those cadets other than Cudia, et. al. This signifies that the phrase “after the OR432 class” pertains to the time of dismissal of the class (including Cudia) before 1500H. Since all the members of the class, except Cudia, et. al., reported to the next class on time at 1500H, OR432 class was actually dismissed before 1500H.
Dr. Costales certified that Cudia, et. al. verified their grades AFTER OR432 class. Meaning before 1500H because the other members of the class reported to the next class on time at 1500H, proving that Cudia LIED and had the intention to deceive by saying that the OR432 class ended “on time” at 1500H.
My discussion and arguments are missing without a trace twice posted.