True, there are a lot of perks that go with the job – a limousine with back-up security, a 24-7 kitchen, all you can eat, a gym, golf course and mini-hospital right in your backyard. Plus power that seems to attract and make you beautiful or handsome to many men and women.
But face it. It’s HARD to be President of the Republic of the Philippines.
My journo-hubby Alan discusses why:
The Filipino way with presidents
by Alan Robles
Filipinos want their President to be Batman, Superman and Jesus Christ.
They want him, or her, to be able to see through walls, around corners, into the hearts and minds of all citizens. To be someone who’ll walk across the water and then hand out loaves and fishes.
They want their President to fight crime, solve poverty, crush corruption, grow the economy and provide jobs, food, education, land reform, justice and social change. They want him to untangle traffic, build infrastructure and furnish cheap electricity; to be a paragon of virtue and warmth, a tough leader, a brilliant statesman, a super soldier and a Nobel class economist.
And they want all of it NOW. No wait, they want it YESTERDAY.
If they don’t get it, out come the metaphorical torches and pitchforks (or perhaps itak): howls of outrage; condemnations; demonstrations; rallies; non-stop vitriolic attacks on Facebook and Twitter (a new development); impeachment attempts. If the political signs are fortuitous there might be serious destabilization attempts, a “withdrawal of support” by the military.
Let’s face it: perhaps the only thing more difficult than running for Philippine President is actually BEING one.
To read the rest, please click on this link.
yvonne says
TRIVIA
Zulkifli Abdhir uses the email address [email protected].
He used the cover name Hulagu or Lagu.
He communicated in Malaysian using code words like “iron” for firearms, “dogs” for government agents, or presents for bombs or IEDs, etc.
Parekoy says
Alamah!
Orang puti same as ayam lah!
Parekoy says
Ikan kari – curry fish!
Maybe his fav dish…
Miss ko na amg nasi lemak dan Ayam goreng dan teh tarik!
yvonne says
Oh, I’m referring to his email cover name.
Parekoy says
Whenever he reach orgasm, he said” Gol! Malaysia Boleh!”
Alan says
Some people like to believe that media and the press in the Philippines are somehow conspiring to bring down the level of discourse. The truth is more mundane than that, I’m afraid: the press is only as good as the people who make it up — in particular the editors and producers. If they’re ignorant, narrow-minded and bigoted war freaks, the chances are it will show in the content of their publication. As Rene Saguisag once said, “media is the plural of mediocre”
NHerrera says
“If they’re ignorant, narrow-minded and bigoted war freaks, the chances are it will show in the content of their publication.”
To your mind, has the situation gotten worse? If so, what explains that aside from competition in the industry?
Alan says
Do you want me to talk about the problems of press? Do you have a few hours? I’m joking. I’ll probably need a week, most of it spent ranting.
I’ve spent three decades as a professional journalist – in other words, making my living from doing nothing but.
I was hoping that the new generation of journalists would be better than the old ones but I’m not sure this is happening. Off the top of my head, I can think of a few reasons:
1. The bosses – the editors and producers – are still the old guys (my generation) and they bring their baggage of bad habits with them and pass it on to the new journalists
2. No training. In most companies, journalists are simply thrown into the job to sink or swim. Most of them just learn to float, so wind up mediocre. Knowledge isn’t passed on. Some companies make alleged commitments to training their staff, but instead they put them through cut-rate courses
3. No self-incentive. Many many journalists feel that once they’ve landed a beat, they’re made for life, and don’t bother to push themselves learning new things and widening their knowledge, which for me is a crucial part of being a journalist (wide knowledge allows good analysis and context, and being able to connect dots within a framework). You never stop learning in journalism. Most journalists don’t realize them. Most don’t even bother improving their writing. They splash along happily in the comfort of their beats. Some might become sharp experts in their beats but nothing more, they won’t be able to help the public draw wider context, to make sense of the news.
4. You mentioned competition. That certainly exists in the big broadcast companies where it’s cutthroat. In print, it’s a bit more nuanced. Some publications – for instance Tribune, which I would never call a newspaper – aren’t in it for the money. While all companies make token statements about quality of journalism this is rarely reflected in the average product they put out
NHerrera says
Thanks. I have a gut feeling, that the quality of Raissa’s and your thoughts and writings, aside from innate in both of you, gets reflected in each other — sort of an enhancer to each other’s work, subconsciously.
Of the concepts or words you used in your reply, the operative word that comes to me is “context.” That is not only useful to journalists but to all professionals. I am a man of science, but I value that concept a lot. It is almost a must to one worthy of his salt in any profession.
Alan says
Yes, you’re right, we do edit each other and try to provide inputs that will make our stories clearer and accessible. For us, context is very important, it’s not enough to just give the news straight, but to take some time out to explain why it might matter.
The Internet has been particularly empowering to us because we can now think of and write and publish stories and topics that (if we were working in a newspaper) the editors would reject out of hand. Also, the Internet allows us to develop the stories in the direction we want them, and subject to our personal standards.
Bongklok says
The press wants to influence, not just to report.
Take note of GMA-7’s slogan: “Mga balita dapat niyong malaman.”
So they decide what the people should know.
Alan says
Care to flesh out that claim with more detail? What do you mean by “press”? do you mean the reporter? The editor? the publisher? the owner? the board?
Every reporter who rights the news – and the editor who goes through his / her copy – goes through the subjective process of picking what to report and how to report it. This is not quite the same as seeking to influence or deciding what the people should know. Btw the people aren’t hapless zombies who follow everything, they can choose to believe/ disbelieve, ignore, not read, or read another publication.
sykes says
which is why it is best to watch the entire presscon or hearing. better to go to the source.
because once you watch or read it through “filtered” news org, it might be slightly different at best and completely the opposite at worst spin on an event.
i’ve seen and heard it happen EVERYTIME i happen to catch a live hearing or presscon.
ex. was one radio reporter who was at Espina’s presscon. Espina affirmed giving coordinates and that there were radio comms but reporter said the opposite at a later radio show. git should be fired because his mistakes are common occurrence.
IMO tv news has deliberate spin. i watch it mainly for amusement, waiting to see what news event they would mangle that day.
Alan says
What is even better is to go to several relevant sources and talk to them and ask them relevant questions and see if their stories change over time, and provide correction and context to what’s being said. This is how I see my own job to be.
You can sit three people in front of one event and if you ask them to write their reports on that event you will likely end up with three different stories. Context, accuracy and correction matter.
Bongklok says
Hi Alan,
As I’ve stated, GMA-7’s news program has this slogan “Mga balita dapat niyong malaman”. The way I interpret this, GMA sifts thru all news it receives and shows only those news that it thinks are worth knowing by the people. So they have the prerogative what to report or not. Since this is the program’s slogan, I can safely assume that this is the network’s stand, and not necessarily the program’s or the news anchor’s stand only.
Again, there is nothing wrong here, but a lot of things can go wrong too. What if (just what if) Management decides to shift their support away from PNoy? Will they now emphasize or highlight the negative side of his administration, and downplay its achievements?
A very typical example are showbiz news. GMA never reports anything that is related to the talents/stars of ABS-CBN – same goes with ABS-CBN too.
A long time ago I was a journalist too. I had my share of scoops and articles that I wanted published because I thought that they were interesting, and that what the public should know. But the real fact is, if the article is detrimental to the interests of the publishers, or to its sponsors, or even to the editor, your article won’t ever see print.
Rene-Ipil says
The Supreme Court ruled that “preventive suspension in administrative cases is not a penalty in itself. It is designed merely as a measure of precaution so that the employee who is charged may be separated, for obvious reasons, from the scene of his alleged misfeasance while the same is being investigated.”
So that to feed his family, a policeman suspended in an administrative case can work as bodyguard of the mayor who pays him out of the latter’s private fund.
Stretching my imagination, I think that Purisima can work as adviser, consultant, jester or errand boy of PNoy for free out of their friendship.
NHerrera says
Re last para — seems a practical thing to do, but staying at the PNP mansion while working, say, as consultant?
Rene-Ipil says
Yes. Purisima overstayed. He had only one month to vacate the house per protocol. Indeed Purisima had vacated the White House. Only a little bit late. What is one month late among friends?
moonie says
it’s prob’ly not just PNoy who tap puri for info. there maybe others who also pick puri’s brain for much needed info. well connected si puri and has wealth of experience.
about overstaying sa whitehouse, bet puri need to locate the whereabouts of the bugs he has put in place and remove them or disconnect them one by one, he,he.
Alfredo says
The government cannot deprive you of your livelihood that is why you are allowed to work by any means other than that position where you are suspended from. But common sense dictates that this cases are only true to those whose source of income comes from their day to day work or with few savings that will not last long. Sa case ni Purisima, hindi applicable ito dahil may pera naman siya kahit na matagal na hindi magtrabaho maliban na lamang kung ganoon siya kakunat sa pera. At lalo na kung nagtrabaho siya for free for Pnoy, how then he could feed his family? Sounds like oxymoronic to me.
moonie says
location, location, location, at camp crame, puri was in good place, centrally located, with ready access to those that badly need his advice. let him go, and he might not be that easy to access and pin down: busy elsewhere, occupied and maybe – que horror – working with the enemy.
plus, maybe, puri has loose ends to tie and needed to be at whitehouse a little bit longer. and may not be solvent too. his money tied in investments.
Rene-Ipil says
“Sounds like oxymoronic to me.”
Your statement seems more oxymoronic. Sabi mo hindi applicable kay Purisima dahil meron naman siyang pera kahit matagal hindi magtrabaho. Tapos sabi mo naman “At lalo na kung nagtrabaho siya for free for Pnoy, how then he could feed his family?” Yung statements mo ang maliwanag na contradictory. In other words, oxymoronic o magkasalungat. Ano ba talaga ang sinasabi mo?
alfredo says
Yes Rene you are right. I should have further stated that IF ON THE OTHER HAND, Puri has no money but will work for Pnoy FOR FREE, that will will not agree with the intent of the law because you are being allowed by law to work so that you can feed your family but will work for free? Then how can you feed your family? I apologize for being oxymoronic also.
What I’m trying to say is, he’s not there to work so that he can feed his family. He was there para makialam with Pnoy’s blessing. And to consider that there’s too much money involved… Peace!
JBL says
79 Responses to “Haiku on the death of 44 police commandos”
Read below or add a comment…
46 Bongklok says:
February 11, 2015 at 3:23 pm
There is a chilling similarity between Operation Wolverine and Operation Showboat in the book “Clear and Present Danger” by Tom Clancy.
1. Indirect authorization by the President. Operation was carried out by his trusted subordinates who were not in coordination with each other. In Tom Clancy’s book, it was carried out by Rangers recruited by the CIA for some special operations, and kept secret from the Army and Navy. In our case, it was carried out by SAF rangers and kept secret too from the Army and PNP top command.
2. Support to the troops was pulled out / withheld at the most crucial moment, which resulted to the commando force being wiped out.
3. In Tom Clancy’s book, support was withdrawn due to a hidden agenda – saving the President from embarrassment because his covert operation was discovered and he was threatened with blackmail. Hope PNoy’s failure to provide support during the extraction phase was born out of indecisiveness, and not due to some hidden agenda or agreement.
4. Responsibility for bungling the operation was claimed by top military officers who acted as fall guys. In Tom Clancy’s book, it was the National Security Adviser who committed suicide to save his President from political backlash. Will General Napenas also do the same to save PNoy? hehehe. just asking.
5. Both operations were claimed as successful despite the losses. In Tom Clancy’s book, the surviving soldiers were sworn to secrecy, but in our case, no secrecy due to the media coverage.
6. The US President deliberately tanked his reelection campaign rather than face the Senate Oversight Committee, which got wind of the operation. Will PNoy tank Mar Roxas?
Reply
Parekoy says
Shift in Political Alignments after the Mamansaporo Debacle!
According to another very unreliable source, PNoy smokes now along with the wind so the smoke does not get into his eyes!
Aquino and LP has now decided to anoint Roxas as their Presidential Candidate with Poe as VP!
Here are the reasons why PNoy has accepted the new revelations!:
1. There is a limit to friendship. Even he trusted Purisima, he realized now that he is incompetent. He believed in him so much that he let him supervised the Oplan Exodus. Now that trust is broken since the aftermath is rocking his Presidency.
2. His family already paid their debts of gratitude to the Binay Family.
a. Aquino was not firing him out from his cabinet to appease his sisters, Uncle Paul and Peping, and he was also hedging that Binay is still too strong to trifle with and insurance once his term ends as President.
b. After the success of getting Marwan but an enormous loss of life of the SAF 44, Binay got his reprieve from his own troubles, took the opportunity to be seen condoling with the fallen families, did issue statements to challenge Purisima to divulge his role in the Mamasapano Debacle to pin Aquino (PNoy was fuming mad because he was expecting Binay to keep his trap shut same with what he did during the Makati Parking Building, Hacienda Binay, etc… to show his neutrality, but with Binay’s opportunistic stance, Aquino now realized that Binay will sell anybody if it is going to help himself be elected or even inherit if Aquino is impeached as President!)
c. Aquino’s Intel group got wind up early of Coup talks and recruitment. FVR and his wheelchair generals, Enrile and Honasan group, GMA’s loyalists, and the worst that Aquino can’t forgive is the involvement of Binay as the caretaker President to give the Junta some quasi-legitimacy since Binay is next in-line anyway. This is the hair that broke the camel’s back and Aquino as vengeful as he is, is the planning a very brutal counter attack. Aquino ordered his Intel to gather all the ‘tapped’ conversations and also ordered more taps.
d. Nancy Binay’s line of questioning in Thursday’s Senate Hearing was so revealing of her intent: Who is the real target? The bullet has Aquino’s name in it though she was trying to course it to Purisima be rattled and rat unintentionally! Aquino’s Balay faction went to bring the matter to Aquino’s attention so Aquino now realized that Samar’s Faction is undermining him in this hour that they have to unite behind Aquino. Balay just tilted the balance of power in their favor.
3. US involvement – It has repercussions if we agree for them to operate without accountability. Aquino now realized that Americans use friends and allies as pawns and houseboy’s to serve them fulfill the American interest and they let you hang dry when shit hits the fan. For this, Aquino realized that he is in the receiving end.
4. Roxas-Poe as the anointed tandem to insure the continuation of Aquino’s legacy.
a. Aquino now realized that although Roxas is not family, a family friend nor a former classmate, the KKK lot, is the person he could trust to continue his legacy. Roxas, true to the moniker, Mr. Clean, is his clean-up guy. He made a mess and Roxas is there eager to serve the president, because Roxas is a professional, he does what he needs to do to serve Aquino’s presidency, its survival and legacy.
b. Aquino realized that he short-changed Roxas by not anointing him early and flirting with Binay. Aquino realized that his family betrayed Roxas by not supporting his opponent Binay during the last national election. And now he realized that Binay will not continue Aquino’s legacy of his hatched baby, Tuwid na Daan, but usurp and bring back the nation to dormancy of the condemned by perpetuating corruption, political dynasty, patronage, and many ills he was trying to minimize.
c. Aquino realized that he made a fool out of Roxas by bypassing him in Oplan Exodus and shows the nation that he can’t trust Roxas in matters of national security. Not a good endorsement. But with Binay’s flirting with the coup plotters, Nancy’s deliberate hostilities to pin Aquino, he realized that he now needs to show remorse and make-up his indifference towards Roxas role as DILG Secretary, and the past sins his family double crossing Roxas, now it is clear to him that indeed, Roxas is the deserving candidate worthy of his anointment.
d. Aquino realized that surveys in the Philippines can be bought and not show the true sentiment of the populace. He knows this since his family has interest in some of the survey entities, either by proxy or as a client. Aquino now bought Balay faction’s assertion that once he anoint Roxas, survey will be made to jive with the Roxas narrative of a better president among the pretenders offering themselves as savior.
e. Aquino realized the power of the incumbent! How the government resources could affect the outcome of elections and the bandwagon effect the gravy train attracts those flies not the better ones but the butter ones, and help his anointed.
5. Aquino’s Legacy
a. Aquino wants his legacy not be remembered as the President who left the SAF 44 to die in vain, not the President who anointed Binay, but the President who made the right choice to choose the best candidate that he honestly believes could continue his legacy of Tuwid na Daan. He knows the challenge of anointing the good guy and a guy like him who sometimes viewed as indifferent by the public and political demolition experts wanted to destroy , but he knows that he made a the best call now considering what happened in the past.
Contemplating with three packs of cigarette, he compared that Binay changed from the poor lawyer to an ill-gotten wealthy liar. He knows how far Binay will go just to be the President of this Republic and even hedged to lead the Junta. Roxas is always at his side, made a sacrifice to let the Filipinos elect the rightful person to lead our nation, professional, and always waiting for Aquino’s side to honor their gentleman’s agreement to anoint and support Roxas stab for presidency.
Aquino looked who are with him in this time of trouble…Roxas is always on his side…Binay absent but he and his cohorts are undermining him clandestinely in his darkest hour.
Now Aquino knows who his real friends are and surely not Binay and family who keep undermining him and hurtfully when Aquino is down. He now decided to anoint Roxas.
Poe was being peddled to her by some Samar Faction components as Preidential timber , but Aquino knows in his gut, Poe is an enigma and trusting her with his legacy, his milestones of jailing Enrile, Estrada, and Revilla, will be a big gamble for her loyalties and aspirations are foggy and leaning towards releasing those three once she is in office. Additionally, Aquino knows Poe’s history with Binay and Erap, and that is alarming. But he is also a politician and knows how to balance the ticket, Poe will be the second fiddle, and Roxas-Poe is music to his ears. He also knows that Poe is helping him wrap-up the Senate Hearings and make a report eventhough there are lingering questions on Aquino’s role, but Poe is playing the ‘Tradpol’ politics and knows the give and take of politics. She is young and she knows that it is alright to wait in the wings for the next six years. She is pragmatic, she knows that she is a sure winner as VP, and the presidential wannabes will tear each other but would gladly make her as their guest VP wishful to share the whiff of her popularity!
So there you go! Hope the above answers the motivation why Aquino has now decided to anoint the Roxas-Poe tandem for the Presidency and Vice Presidency in 2016.
Thank you for the unreliable ‘tsismoso’ of this new important development!
Parekoy
vander anievas says
@parekoy,
whoa!
explosive!
“Aquino realized that his family betrayed Roxas by not supporting his opponent Binay during the last national election.”…maybe a typo there
“Contemplating with three packs of cigarette”…hehehe, dami noon ah!
Parekoy says
typo!
“Aquino realized that his family betrayed Roxas by
notsupporting his opponent Binay during the last national election.”Salamat!
You are Vanderful this morning!
Kalahari says
Nice one Parekoy. Battle royale between Mr. Clean & Dirty Harry.
But for grace marcos – it looks like another chiz specialty – bi-grace, but it won’t click this time. The people are tired of corruption.
GO-GO MAR
Parekoy says
Poe’s handlers could do that but they are aware how LP plugged the holes.
The Balay faction learned their lesson; they regrouped and laid the plan when Aquino took the helm, from the ground game to the underground game!
The key is the PNoy’s official endorsement, after that the machine will blast full throttle!
Hwag seryosohin…
:)
vander anievas says
how will that be, “blast with full throttle”?
parang sa orgasm lang yata nangyayari yun?
@parekoy,
magaling ka talaga sa double meaning.
marami nang natatalisod dahil sa mga double2x mong yan.
kagaya ng “milf”, ilan ang sumabit dun.
e kung sinabi mo na lang agad na “hot mama”.
hindi ka na sana iko-caution dahil mamo-monitor ‘ika ng CIA ang mga tororrist outputs mo?
hehehe!
:)…no caution from me.
Parekoy says
Pinainan lang, eh may mga kumagat…
Malalaman mo don yung di masaya sa style mo o di kaya yung may generation gap kasi pag Mature eh di nila alam yung MILF!
:)
Parekoy says
Pag may Coup, andon agad si Tito Jojo…
Pag inapi is Krazy, andon aga si Tito JoJo…
Pag may problema si Mommy kahit mdaling araw andon agad si Tito Jojo…
Parekoy says
Ngayon naman na may pinagdadaanan si Kuya Noy,
At may mga nagplaplano ng Coup…
andon din si Tito Jojo…
sykes says
but Mar has to be careful too coz he ain’t squeaky clean ;)
Alan says
Interesting insights Parekoy. I’m taking notes.
Parekoy says
Watch next month…plenty of interesting things are happening…
Alan says
good for a few humor columns?
Parekoy says
Rumor con Humor Columns!
:)
Kung si Joeam may bookie Sal, ako mas Koreador SalSal!
:)
Alan says
Let us sing: Old McGringo had a coup…
vander anievas says
je jay je jay jo!
and on the farm they have some plans!
je jay je jay jo!
sing with silent “j”.
as in hehemon…
duquemarino says
With a pig, pig there
And a horse, horse there
Je jay je jay Jo!
With fighting cocks there
And exotic birds there
Je jay je jay Jo!
Lots of anays too
Je jay je jay jooooooooo!
NHerrera says
Premature campaigning yata yan Parekoy. Nevertheless, I liked reading the story with coffee. Is the video in DVD? Nasa Quiapo na kaya yan?
I especially like the part: “PNoy smokes now along with the wind so the smoke does not get into his eyes!”
Parekoy says
Same guy who told me that FVR will win when everybody thought he was a goner…
Same guy who insinuated early on that the Senators during the Corona trial were made to impeach Corona with ‘incentives’ and the PDAF and DAP were not a household name then.
Don’t worry, I am not campaigning. If my unreliable source relaydd that Poe is the chosen one, I will share also…but he said it is Binay, then I have to make sure he is not pulling my leg…
Whether bad news or good news I will try to share.
I am for Aquino, but I love my nation better, so I shared the drones, US involvement, Purisima supervising the operation, and PNoy’s on top of what was happening during the SAF operations. Aquino’s inner circle is covering for him, that is why Puri invoke executive privilege and the Security Team tried their best to insulate Aquino, they were there with him, Deles knew all along, so as the others. Catapang followed his orders not to engage the MILF to save the peace process, Napenas is taking the fall. Espina played his 15 minutes of fame and trying to strong arm PNoy to appoint him PNP-Chief, else more leaks…
Still, I hope you enjoy my shared fiction, and whatever similiarities you confirmed in the future are coincidental!
I’m glad I entertained you!
:)
NHerrera says
:)
Alfredo says
To me, when the story makes sense, seek no other sense (until the truth comes out). Pero ano ba ang naging role ng dolyar na pabuya sa mga hindi magandang nangyari? Thanks, Parekoy.
sykes says
@parekoy
not shocked that their lot were in Zambo that same fateful day, huh? ;)
Julie says
@parekoy: “I am for Aquino but I love my nation better.”
Yan ba ang version mo ng “my loyalty to my party ends where my loyalty to my country begins” ?
A remarkable sentiment. Natuwa naman ako :)
chit navarro says
what should be the debt of gratitude of the Aquino’s to BInay?
It should be the other way around – Binay was just a struggling human rights lawyer when Pres. Cory took him under her wings, together with the other Mabini lawyers (Joker Arroyo, Rene Saguisag), and was appointed as OIC of Makati City by Nene Pimentel.
From there, he soared and soared mightily.
Thus, kung may ginagawa man si VP Binay para sa mga Aquino, kulang pa yan na bayad ng utang niya sa pagkupkop sa kanya. At matagal na dapat alam ni Pres. Noy na “Binay will sell anybody if it is going to help himself be elected or even inherit if Aquino is impeached as President!. – (your words.) When VP Binay double crossed Sen. Pimentel (son of Nene Pimentel – head of PDP-Laban) by including Migs Zubiri in the senatorial line up of their party, that was already a clear indication of his ability to sell his soul to attain his goal.
Parekoy says
Pag may Coup, andon agad si Tito Jojo…
Pag inapi is Krazy, andon aga si Tito JoJo…
Pag may problema si Mommy kahit mdaling araw andon agad si Tito Jojo…
chit Navarro says
nagbabayad utang lang si Jojo and trying to make himself indispensable kuno.
Di ba sinabihan na siya ni President Noy that he can leave the Cabinet? Makapal lang talaga! !
vander anievas says
may nauna pang cue.
“walang wang-wang”
hindi pa rin nakuha.
o nagtataingang-kawali.
or talagang paldo.
o manhir.
not bin hir…
netty says
In “The TWILIGHT TIME` PNOY found his diamond in the rough in MAMASAPANO, in the person of Mar Roxas, I really like this man. He is an elite but he exudes goodness. Perhaps he was raised by a queen.;)
Some more of my food for thought quotes:
‘The planet does not need more ‘ successful people. But it does
desperately needs more peacemakers, healers, restorers,
storytellers and lovers of every shape and form. I t needs people who live
well in their places.It needs people of ** moral courage ** ————
willing to join the fight to make the world habitable and humane.
And these needs have little to do with success as our culture has defined it’. David ORR
Parekoy says
Thank you for the quotes!
Fitting for our time…
uprightbike says
@parekoy,
your unreliable source is unreliable as mine.
Parekoy says
I think you win this one. I concede that your source is reliable of being unreliable!
:)
Bing Garcia says
Exciting!
Parekoy says
Great that I got you excited, the merry kind!
Thank you Bing!
:)
Insideout says
Your unreliable source will be shown to be right on only if Pnoy can stand firm against his “the evil sisters” who have unlike their mother been conniving (even against her wishes because they knew what was better) over the decades with their bizarre so called loyalties, vested business interests not to mention their lust to be the power brokers.
Parekoy says
The bwitches become a liability.
Have you seen how the Filipinos lashed back at Krazy?
The Bwitches realized that recently they are no longer given a pass. Instead, they are now considered passé!
Pathetic?
Bongklok says
Wow Parekoy. Your unreliable source has just made a new twist to an old song. hehehehe.
BTW, what happened to Raissa’s scenario before – that Miriam will run for President with PNoy as her running mate. And once both are elected, Miriam will resign due to health reasons and PNoy finishes her term – and the daan matuwid legacy.
Parekoy says
May pre-requisite ang comelec…
Isa lang ang allowed na may tama sa ticket ng Pred at VP otherwise disqualified sila…
So di pwede ang tandem, masaya nga naman pero nakakabaliw!
;)
Bongklok says
Seriously…
Manila’s press seems to downplay it, but the clamor for Rody Duterte to run for president in 2016 is gaining ground in Visayas and Mindanao. I have news from an equally unreliable source who has inside access to the AFP that Rody is connected to ISIS (aside from the old rumors that he is a leftist in disguise)
The catch is – he may win.
vander anievas says
he will not.
du3te is 2dirte.
bones will pop up/out once he declares he’s running.
and the end of it.
khalas.
barra.
sykes says
Miriam will not pass the health requirement.
must be of sound mind and body.
this country will be in a worse state if she becomes prez. unless she has a really good “shadow president”
her other main health issue isn’t being talked about out of respect for her (probably) but not sure if that would remain once she does run.
caliphman says
Parekoy, I like the idea of a Roxas/Poe ticket but as betting man,a Poe/Roxas line up would garner better odds today. Lets wait and see if Mar’s numbers pickup later on as his moral compass seems straight on.
Parekoy says
See reasons on trust…
Binay showed he can’t be trusted.
Poe an enigma…
Roxas was not entrusted but in PNoy’s the darkest day proved that he is the one that can be trusted!
waray waray says
I like Mar Roxas. He is decent and a professional. But for some reason he seems not to be able to connect w/ the masa.
Parekoy says
Dati naka-konek sya noong Senador sya.
Noong tumakbo syang VP doon na yung demolition job 24-7 plus mga gaffs tulad noong sa golf course.
Pero meron ng counter measures ang mga hired PR experts ni Mar, naghahand na sila ng mga ads na may comparison against BInay. They wil give emphasis on Mar not attributed to any corruption while Binay is deep in it. They will use footage of Mar with Pnoy to the hilt and Binay with Enrile, Jinggpy and Bong…
2016 campaing ads are like Superbowl ads, may focus groups muna, refined and retuned, then ulitin para walang sablay sa mensahe, then launch. Meron ding mga regional ads na para mapunuan yung kakulangan ng mensahe pag tagalog lang, kasi merong mga ads na epektibo sa local dialect, Bisaya, and Mar knows the dialect inside out and the Ilonggo part will be his forte. Yung sa Ilocos bale alam nya na dehado sya doon dahil hati yunbut to his advantage kasi Marcos and Binay will be dividing it and the LP machine will also try to max whatever they can get.
Ang nuclear weapon nila ay di na susundin yung 60-30-10 na program. Bale fine-tuned na para di na halata tulad ng nakaraan.
Watch how they are good in the Ground game, but be awed by their Underground game!
Ang tao pag napaglalangan dati, eh sisiguraduhin na hindi na maulit. Roxas is Mr. Clean but he knows also to clean-up to leave no trace.
:)
kalakala says
why not mar-l. robledo?
Rene-Ipil says
I prefer MAR-ALAN.
LENI for senator.
caliphman says
So what is wrong with Poe/Pangilinan? Win with PoeKiko!
baycas says
Parang maganda yan, @Rene.
Parekoy says
Ayaw ni Leni ng VP, di sigurado…
Leni will be a sure winner as Senator…
MAR-ALAN does not serve Mar’s interest and LP is not going to allow that.
Alan is good as Senator and a fiscalizer there. Pero dami nyang nakalaban and sa puitika na politics is addition eh delikado yan sa team.
Poe, though we don’t like her silence about Binay’s corruption, is the best choice for VP. Roxas and LP also know that keeping Poe within the admin will neutralize her for working with her Kuyas in the open, kasi she has to go with the flow until it is time for her turn.
VP GMA did it during Erap’s time and only pounced when Erap was down. Was with the coup plot together with the Aquinos to oust Erap. So Poe will also mimic that strategy in case Roxas admin falters.
VP Binay is also doing to PNoy what VP GMA did to Erap. The difference is that PNoy proven that he is not corrupt while Erap is. VP Binay is unlucky because he did not read that the situation is entirely different, and his adventurous consorting with the Coup Plotters is a bust and now trying to do amage control. He knows Aquino, he is vindictive (SOB to his targets and he has a track record of being successful from Gutierrez, Corona, GMA, Enrile, Jinggoy, Bong, Ejercito of Laguna, etc.). Binay is is scared for he knows that PNoy when irrational is like a mad dog who will not let go until he mauled you. He knows Noynoy, and he is scared the way that young man acted before, a potential serial killer, and by the grace of whoever well being, Noynoy turned his mild “psychotic” affliction to a very useful one when he unleashes it to those who crossed him and his enemies!
NHerrera says
Re: Post 116.11.1 and Post 116.12.2
Wow, @Parekoy! Talo si John le Carre’
Subscribe ako.
Joe America says
I enjoyed this piece. It makes a lot of sense, it is rich with intrigue, and if it is not based on inside info, but on speculation, you have a future in writing spy/intrigue novels. I was reminded of Ludlum . . .
Joe America says
That was meant to be @Parekoy for his scenario.
Parekoy says
I’m glad you enjoyed it!
Still you are my favorite fo…..
….
….
….
……
…..
….
reigner!
:)
vander anievas says
hahaha.
there you go again…
baycas says
Bukod sa pagbigay ng pera mula sa Pagibig at Makati cash assistance funds, may mensahe pa ang matandang Binay…
Binay: “That’s PNoy’s decision…[which I most fervently like…hehehe].”
Source: http://www.sunstar.com.ph/superbalita-cebu/balita/2015/02/12/binay-misaad-og-tabang-391735
raissa says
paki translate sa tagalog, baycas
caliphman says
Tagalog with English subtitles please gor those shoe flunked panitikan and balarila.
caliphman says
Apparently typing as well :)
chit navarro says
FROM GOOGLE TRANSLATE: (QUITE FUNNY BUT YOU CAN GET THE DRIFT)…
“I will always be hoping praying that we have peace but it is peace with justice,” said Binay told reporters.
He also apologize for the viral video on the internet the other day which showed two SAF finished killing the rebels.
Binay was stood godfather to 227 couples were married yesterday gilibre TO LOVE in JCentre Mall in Mandaue City. (Perhaps this should read: inay stood as godfather to 227 couples in a free, mass wedding sponsored by Pag-ibig at the JC Centre Mall in Mandaue.)
“There’s much invented to investigate, eh. I have no commission for suspicion. Well now, while you watch, have their own looks, “daso vice president’s investigation of the incident. (This really made me laugh – I HAVE NO COMMISSION FOR SUSPICION…. HAHAHAH)…
“So they just investigation and takes him more because they say my true,” he added.
When asked the vice president if needed will resign his post Aquino presidency, he replied, “That is his (Aquino) decision.”
caliphman says
Google Translate has Bisaya-English translations now? I heard the CIA uses a Tagalog-English version to intercept top secret AFP field communications.
baycas says
Thanks, @chit, saved me the trouble.
kalakala says
CEBU CITY—What to do with the money?
The widow of one of 44 police commandos, who died in a covert operation to get international terrorist Marwan on Jan. 25, had this question after receiving P97,000 in cash donated by private individuals and supporters of the Central Visayas regional police force.
Maseti says:
February 12, 2015 at 10:10 pm
B Anay was in Lapu lapu (Cebu) market today and had lunch with the common folks.
kalakala says
Interviewed after the ceremony, Christine expressed thanks but said she has no idea where to use the money on, knowing fully well it can’t buy her husband’s life.
She said Alan Purisima, a close friend of President Aquino and former chief of the PNP, should have resigned “a long time ago.”
moonie says
if christine does not know what to do with the money, may I suggest she give it to charity? there are many charitable organizations that need financial aid.
moonie says
initial reply is lost, so here goes the 2nd:
if christine does not know what to do with the money, may I suggest she donate it to charity? there are many charitable organization in need of financial aid. and if she can find it in her heart , she ought to give money to innocent bystander killed in mamasapano.
letlet says
Binay, without fail, is the Prince of Machiavellian tactics. It is absolutely outrageous that he is exploiting the tragedy of the mamasapano incidents. The more he does, the more he is exposing his innermost motive / agenda.
baycas says
Ok, ok, ok, Binay uli…as he wants the presidency so much…
Susog sa Batas, pang-akit ni Binay sa mga local executives…
http://www.mb.com.ph/binay-bats-for-local-govt-code-revision/
baycas says
Karagdagan ‘yan sa iba pa niyang mga “Ssstrategies.”
Tunghayan dito ang iba: http://raissarobles.com/2014/11/01/heres-my-2010-profile-on-vice-president-binay-based-on-my-one-on-one-interview-with-him/comment-page-3/#comment-198554
baycas says
Liban pa ‘yan sa “Stabbing” PNoy at the back…
Gaya nina Cassius at Brutus…
Siya’y si Malamarcus Glorius Binayus…
baycas says
(Recess muna from the Mamasapano.)
JBL says
Well I might as well share this Cong. Pacquiao ambush interview by Doris Birgonia.
Doris: Cong. Manny, Champ…..alam ko kulang ka sa panahon, promise dalawng tanong lang, please.
Manny: Ahhhh…….okey Doris, I well try. Bilisan mo, uma- andar yung heellicopter ko.
.
Doris: Yung 2016 malapit na……… sa Binay UNA partido ka ba tatakbo para senator?
Manny: Hindi pa ako sigurado…… baka magtayo ako sariling partido……thank you
Doris, see youuuuuuuuu . Inip na si Mrs.Jinkee…..byeeeeeeee..
Doris: (make habol sa Manny) Manneeeeeeeeeeeeeee………isa na lang. Sabi ni Ping Lacson bakit sa yaman mo, kailangan pa
ba tanggapin yung Pork Barrel,….. at wala ka daw sina-submit na liquidation papeles
Manny: Doris……. milyon, milyon ang mga na-ibigay ko sa distrito na galing sa bulsa ko……..binulsa ko man o hindi, katiting na halaga compara doon sa milyones. Sabihin mo kay General Pinky yung PORK ko taon-taon ..pa-birthday gift ko lang sa MRS. para pambili ng imported DESIGNER THONG niya.
Doris: Hah…. talaga ga??………Wow, si Jinkee talaga……….how romantic and sexy naman!
Manny: Doris, Doriiiiiis……..si JINKEE HINDI NAGPA-PANTY……….Ang nanay ang tinutukoy ko!! MRS. Dionisia Paquiao!
******Whaaaat!………..not funny? I told you I laugh at my own jokes. BITE ME!
caliphman says
So the Senate hearings close and the only remaining revelations to still unanswered questioms, if any, may never be known unless leaked by some unnamed source who attended the senate executive sessions or a person who was or should have been an inside person. But the main question ” what happened at Mamasapano?” can more or less be answered now as the hearing testimony confirms or discredits news emanating from solid and questionable media sources. There are facets to this question that are being asked such as what was the extent of Ninoy’s and US involvement, the answers to which are burning issues to some but in what I perceive are in the grand scheme of things are less important to me. Unless the US had a major hand in setting the priorities for the operation or exercised command and control over the operation including deciding what goals and risks should be set for it, I have no qualms about Americans advising, funding, providing intelligence info, or determining whether neutralizing Marwan was accomplished or not. I also believe Aquino’s direct involvement in the operation is difficult not to assume and since he has accepted responsibility, the only issues he can be criticized for is the central role he allowed Purisima to play and whether he issued stand down orders for any rescue attempts to save the Fallen 44.
The stand down issue leads to what for me is the the biggest remaining unanswered question. Granted the operation accomplished a major part of its mission, who can be held responsible for the deaths of so many fine young warriors? The MILF fighters fired the shots that directly killed them is undeniable and a separate process to determine will determine if they are criminally liable or not. But for the Fallen 44 to have been exposed to a situation where chances of annihilation were so great and rescue so poor, that is the single other most important question that has not been definitively answered. As for me, I am in wit Brenda and lay the blame on the incompetence, lack of emphasis on force protection, and absence of coordination of Napenas. He has appropriately been relieved of his command and maybe deserving of demotion or dismissal or both.
caliphman says
Edit: In the beginning sentence, resource person should have been typed instead of inside person.
caliphman says
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/672644/saf-had-3-reasons-to-abort-operation-exodus-aquino-review-notes
Pinoy agrees with Brenda as well. Poor planning and execution by SAF should have led to aborting or deviating from plan. Particularly since the plan and Napenas decided minimal or no coordination with AFP, greatly increasing risks if plan runs into problems. Three primary reasons were 2 hour delay led to losing cover of darkness. Failure of other teams to reach assigned waypoints meant two small teams facing overwhelming enemy forces without reinforcing SAF teams nearby. Third, the lack of coordination exacerbated the first 2 and should have aborted or drastically led to plan changes.
Napenas’s responses to criticism’s of poor planning and failure to abort/change plans? He insists the operation was well planned. He gave no orders to abort or to change plans as these decisions were delegated down to the individual team commanders.
Thus Inspector Train decided to proceed with plan two hours late with less than half his team with no info of failure of supporting teams to reach blocking and adjoining support positions. 55 SAF decided to stick to plan to wait in fixed and exposed position for 84th SAF link up and when daylight came were wiped out. The rest of SAF sat on the highway under the command of the third battalion commander who decided to call it quits after sending 100 men to try and reinforce the trapped commandos. The three platoons retreated with zero casualties after encountering strong resistence.
So where was Napenas, their fearless leader? He was in Sharif Aguak 10 kilometers away in his tactical command post.
ricelander says
A few things:
There is no such thing as a perfect plan. You improvise as you go.
There is such a thing as judgment call. It is never a sure thing. The important thing is you assume the consequences not escape it like a coward.
Tactical command posts are normally at a safe distance not in the front lines.
People who are always waiting for that perfect condition generally end up waiting till the end. In consolation though, nothing tried, no mistake.
drill down says
nevertheless, a good plan is needed to prevent unnecessary problems from happening, to make sure objective is attained with minimum casualties, etc. it doesn’t necessarily mean it will be perfect with no casualties, just well thought out and prepared. and a good review is just as necessary.
it’s not needed if one can send rambo in who can improvise like no one else can.
Bongklok says
Murphy’s Law “If anything can go wrong, it will”, is very much evident in military operations. Even the supposedly perfect execution of the operation that led to the death of Osama Bin Laden suffered a casualty – a damaged helicopter.
I think the following incidents may have contributed greatly to the fiasco that followed a supposedly successful operation:
1. The commandos were not aware that Marwan’s house was booby-trapped. When the traps exploded, the element of surprise was lost.
2. The plan failed to take into consideration the Muslim prayer hours – Had they considered this, they would have advanced their timetable, or explored other options.
3. There was no backup extraction point. When the commandos got trapped in the extraction point (a poor choice actually as it was surrounded in three sides by a river with no means of crossing it) they had no options where to go.
I surmise that when they radioed headquarters for help, they were ordered to to stay put as the government was going to arrange for a ceasefire so that they could be safely extracted. Unfortunately, the MILF command may not have immediately communicated the ceasefire to the MILF troops surrounding the SAF. Or the BIFF, apparently outraged over the successful infiltration of their bastion and the death of Marwan, decided to take matters into their own hands.
If my analysis is correct, then I do hope that our Armed Forces can institute measures to prevent a similar fiasco from occurring. I believe that there will be more commando type operations similar to these in the future – and we don’t want to see another batch of SAF (or AFP) troops get killed because they failed to learn from their mistakes.
Those who fail to learn the lessons of history are bound to repeat it.
caliphman says
Ricelander, I shudder at the flippancy of your comments. A plan does not have to be perfect. It just needs to address the key factors needed for the operation to succeed and to provide contingency plans in case things go wrong, like for instance aborting the mission. A bank will never lend money to a business unless it has a plan that shows how it will make money and survive if downturns and other risks occur. In a miitary setting, a badly conceived plan can be a matter of life and death. In the case of SAF, it lead to 44 dead commandos. Why? Because the plan failed to account for high tides and rugged terrain which delayed the operation 2 hours when the MILF fighters were waking for prayers and the cover of darkness was lost. It helps to read the linked article and the post carefully before you respond.
ricelander says
Armchair expert huh. Some errors in planning maybe. Could somebody else have done a better job? Perhaps.
I give weight to the fact that the guy comes with the distinction and credentials for that specific job. He’s not someone picked out on a whim. That he accepted the entire blame in the fiasco without delay is at least to me admirable.
If anything, I think it is in misjudging the MILF that he erred fatally. He must have assumed that the MILF is not “enemy” in the sense that we would normally consider one. After all, the mission is about an outlaw and the govenment is supposed to be in a midst of a peace talk with the group so that some laxity could be allowed
caliphman says
On the booby traps, not sure if the intel packet would have had info. It was only 3 pages long. Triggering the booby traps did not help but the plan probably assumed exchange of gunfire as there were sentries that Train had to assign some of his men to deal with. They had the huge advantage of night vision goggles as at 4:30 it was still too dark to move outside without some light, which they started losing while taking photos, cutting the finger, confirming success to TAC, etc.
On 2, Brenda pointed out the same thing about the 5 am morning prayers This was not incorporated in the plan which however did not have a contingency for a two hour delay from a 2:30 start.
On 3, I would refer you to drilldown’s comment above in response to Ricelander. The attitude Napenas seemed to take was that the SAF teams were all Rambos, being the PNP cream of the cream. He testified in the hearings that command and control rested entirely rested with the leaders. If you look at the PNP/SAF official report, SAC 55 failed to reach the waypoint they were assigned to defend in the plan so the cornfield was an on the spot decision, as horrible a choice as it was. Their assignment was to wait for the 84th to link up with them as they were securing the escape route and the only chance they would have had to change plans and move was while it was still dark. That was only a half hour window and when daylight broke, they were visible and under withering fire and it was too late because they couldnt move even if ordered to.
baycas says
NHerrera says
This is bothersome when compared to the statements of the PNP Officials, AFP Officials, etc. I wonder if this can be finessed or needed to be. The implication seems negative to me.
baycas says
Roxas mentioned 11am…
He now knows that communication logs are vital in putting the “jigsaw pieces” together…
baycas says
@Parekoy,
One may bet: logs will be subpoenad sooner or later.
baycas says
“subpoenaed” (failed to auto-correct)
caliphman says
Baycas, before the start of the Senate hearings, I seem to recall Poe requesting the telcos to provide info on text messages to determine who was still alive among the 55 SAF commandos. Not sure it would be easy to get Pinoy’s text and call info as head of executive branch but the generals might be fair game. But as I have noted in the post above, we are talking of is there a Ninoy coverup and why. If he gave a standown order, there will be public furor and a political cost but I believe it might have been the right call. A coverup is a different matter and hard to defend if exposed.
baycas says
Poe was being selective. Even testimonies from the village/community leaders in Tukanalipao, Pidsandapawan, etc. are important. The communication logs of the IMT and ceasefire committee members are likewise vital information.
If only we can just blame Maj. Prob. Comm U. Nication and Prinicpal Coor D. Nation (in general)
And easily prosecute those who did criminal acts esp. the trigger-happy terrorists and/or those who did not follow ceasefire commands.
Then we can just readily move on.
Other very important things…pressing things…are left unattended…
—–
As to the stand down order, it will still be a long while for it to be confirmed. Mum is the word.
Tor ture may help…and the media (print, broadcast, social, atbp.) is probably doing it slowly.
caliphman says
Actually the one who would profit the most if a standdown order surfaced would be Banay himself. Watch him whip up a frenzy as champion of the common soldier if word ever got out.
baycas says
Seven of the Bayaning APOs are, of course, Binay’s brods.
Parekoy says
SubPOEnaed by who?
:)
I will bet my baby cat, pussy, that those are already incomplete…clean-up operations were done after the incident…
baycas says
♥ Intel says D5 already beat them to thw logs. ♥
♡ The OMB men were trying hard to get Puri’s and PNoy’s back. ♡
Parekoy says
D5 naninigurong nasa top 5 sa resulta sa pagka Senador kaya panay protekta kay PNoy!
Bikol will make her in top 10, the rest of the country will bump her to 7, but there is magic in the air so D5 will be D number 5!
Why? Dark sense of humor! Just to leave their calling card for the next elections, Merlin’s calling card!
Abangan…
baycas says
Please don’t forget the ‘plum’ Comelec post…
Leila de Lima’s dad was once a commissioner…she may not pass up the chance…
Rene-Ipil says
“Simula pa noong Linggo, umaga pa lang, sinabihan na ako ng naging resulta nitong kay Marwan. Tapos habang sinisiyasat namin ang pagbobomba sa Zamboanga, dumarating ang mga report,” Aquino said last January 30.”
Natural lang. “Mike One, Bingo.” Dapat lang malaman ni Napeñas, Espina at PNoy ASAP. “Under attack kami, sir. Dapat lang malaman ni Napeñas, Espina at PNoy ASAP.
Umaga pa lang dumarating ang mga report. Dapat lang. Tanungin si PNoy kung sino nagreport. Maliwanag si Purisima. At 5:30 AM Purisima already asked support from Catapang. Sinabihan ba ni Catapang si PNoy? Hindi maliwanag. O hindi pa kailangan. Hindi naman siya tinatanong ni PNoy.
baycas says
Hindi sinabihan si PNoy…
Dahil si PNoy na mismo ang nagtanong…
Natural lang!
Parekoy says
Baka pagalitan tayo nyan ni Brenda…
baycas says
A president…always without a ‘super power’ that people want (see @Alan’s work in the blog post)…will also be expected to be conscientious. That’s what people like in a president.
I personally understood why he didn’t preside the arrival honors for the 42 heroes. The game plan from the get go is to distance himself from the tragic incident and instead project the good thing that happened.
He was bluffing then and is still trying to bluff his way out of this mess now.
However, I believe he is a conscientious president…concerned of his men in peril…that a report is no longer needed…
but he will definitely ASK information and updates directly from people around him that day.
baycas says
He was “like having a bad hair day” in the morning of January 25, 2015
Rene-Ipil says
“but he will definitely ASK information and updates directly from people around him that day.”
Ganun di sana ginawa ni Espina para siya IN of the loop.
Bakit hindi tinanong ito ni Bongbong kay Espina?
baycas says
To the interested, DAP is up…
http://sc.judiciary.gov.ph
Joe America says
Thank you, baycas. Saved me from hunting it up.
baycas says
No prob, @JoeAm.
kalakala says
“I have intelligence as of yesterday that leaders of certain alphabet soup acronyms who are familiar with the public had a recent meeting, because they wanted to discuss how to stage a coup d’etat, who should be installed as president, and even their contributors were there,” pagsisiwalat ni Santiago ngayong Huwebes sa pagdinig ng Senado sa Mamasapano clash.
ang tanong nasaan at ano ang ginagawa ngayon ni VP B anay?.
Martial Bonifacio says
If it really alphabet then anyone can easily make the first for letters ABCD.
A -rroyo
B – inay
C – orona
D – enggoy
Parekoy says
E -Enrile
F-FVR
G-Gloria (A-Arroyo is Mike)
Parekoy says
H -Honasan
I – Gen. I
J – Jinggoy
K – Kaibigan dati (Binay Family)
Ancient Mariner says
Perhaps a weak point in your argument is that you refer to States, I was referring to a province. I am not quite ready to concede the point yet. I am currently struggling through the below document on my smartphone and will revert when I am done. Perhaps you could also cast your eyes over it.
http://yale.edu/irspeakers/Fearon.pdf
Alan says
As I said I’m referring to identity, a civil war occurs when nominal members of one group break up and clash. It can be for religious or ethnic reasons. The geographical coverage can be huge (the US) or small (Rwanda). It can even take place in one city — Jerusalem besieged by the Romans during the time of the historian Josephus, when aside from fighting the Romans the Jews fought among themselves along religious lines.
NHerrera says
If I can join the in the fray: I read quickly the first fourth pages and conclusion of the article by the Stanford Univ pol sci group circa 2002 referred to by @Ancient Mariner.
In the empirical study conducted to answer the question: Are More Diverse Countries Prone to Civil War?, an interesting diagram — plotting three variables: probability of civil war onset; country income gdp/cap; percentage of largest ethnic group — results.
The diagram shows that the probability of civil war onset (shown as contour lines) varies inversely with the income regardless of the percentage of largest ethnic group. Of course, the more homogenous — that is higher percentage for the largest ethnic group — the probability of onset of civil war varies more sharply with income. To me, the result is intuitive, but confirms the authors thesis that insurgency or civil war is not due to ethnic diversity as it is income. The author goes deeper and concludes that insurgency is not fueled by ethnic diversity but also by other factors beyond income, such as total pop size vs size of insurgents, terrain, knowledge of identities of populace in which they move, etc. Most of which, come to think of it, are also intuitive.
Just want to insert this note, from my reading of the referenced pdf article. Thanks @Ancient Mariner for sharing.
Ancient Mariner says
A good summary. Thank you for saving me the effort. My brain is still spinning after reading all 41 pages.
With regard to my dialogue with Alan, I think the conflict in Mindanao coutd be termed a Civil War or an Insurgency and both would be correct.
Perhaps we have groups of Insurgents fighting in a Civil War.
NHerrera says
Good for you, you had the patience to go through the labor of 41 pages. Me, I am lazy, at times. So, after going about one-fourth through the text, went to the concluding remaks and the authors’s Tables/Figures.
Yes, we may call that insurgency or civil war.
Ancient Mariner says
I revisited the document briefly and now have one reservation. It was published in the year 2000..So much horror and carnage has taken place during the intervening 14 years, ISIS, Al Qaida, Taliban, Muslim Brotherhood, Boku Haram, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and other African states that I believe the conclusion may be somewhat different if written in 2015. Nonetheless, a very enlightenening document.
Rene-Ipil says
Napeñas testified in the HOR that he had briefed Espina on the earlier missions about the Marwan project – oplans wolverine, terminator 1, terminator 2, etc.
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/104952/video–reaksyon-3-questions-to-define-pnoys-knowledge-of-and-role-in-mamasapano
Marwan is a high value target. Espina should have closely monitored the formulation and implementation of plans regarding Marwan including OPLAN EXODUS. More importantly, he should have placed himself on top of the situation always. In that event there would no chance that he would be out of the loop during the time of the raid on Marwan. Napeñas could not afford to mislead or lie to him. Dishonesty and grave misconduct are grounds for dismissal from the service.
OPLAN Exodus involved two of Espina’s subordinate offices. The formulation was done by PNP intelligence directorate while the PNP SAF undertook its implementation. The success or failure of OPLAN Exodus depended on the leadership of Espina over these two PNP units and on his ability to coordinate their activities and those of other PNP support units. It is unimaginable that Espina could be out of the loop in any stage of the project unless he willed it.
My point is that the Mamasapano fiasco showed the incompetence of Espina in handling the Marwan project. IMO Espina deliberately made himself scarce in the formulation and implementation by his subordinates of the final plan to neutralize Marwan. He was expecting that the next operation to get Marwan would again be a flop as usual. He wanted to insulate himself from another failure. As the top honcho of PNP, Espina could NOT be out of the loop unless he allowed it.
BTW. No one among the legislators asked Espina why he allowed himself out of the loop as if it were merely a consequence of informing him only Time-on-Target (TOT). The senators and congressmen should know that the TOT event could not happen without the “cooperation” of Espina. And Espina must explain in congress why he allowed such event to happen to him. Espina must explain how slept on the job – literally and figuratively.
kalakala says
“BIFF challenges politicians to arm themselves, fight in Mindanao”. sugud na mga epal na politico na gustong magiging presidente ng pilipinas. ang matirang buhay can file for candidacy.
soneone already answered this kind of challenge: Binay still running, says Junjun.
but let us make this clear; still running away from senate hearing. still running into the mamasapano cornfield and do the rambotito