I will not drop Sabah claim, President Aquino told me

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By Raïssa Robles

President Benigno Aquino has categorically stated that he will not drop the Philippine claim to Sabah, contrary to what critics of his centerpiece legislation on Muslim autonomy – the Bangsamoro Basic Law – are saying.

During my recent wide-ranging interview with him that lasted over two hours in Malacanang Palace, I asked President Aquino directly whether he was going to drop Sabah.

“No,” he said.

When I asked him if Malaysia had offered a quid pro quo – Kuala Lumpur’s support of the Philippine claim in the West Philippine Sea in exchange for Manila’s dropping of the Sabah claim – President Aquino also replied “No.”

I am posting at the end a video clip from the entire interview that has to do with the Sabah issue. I had to cut away a small portion of it because he placed that off the record.

This morning when I attended the forum on the BBL which presented the Filipino public opinion on the matter, I decided to share what Aquino had told me during my lengthy interview with him for South China Morning Post (HK). This was after I realized that much of the animosity of the people of Sulu and Tawi-Tawi – as well as a lot of Netizens on Facebook – toward the BBL stemmed from the Sabah issue.

They believe that in exchange for Malaysia’s brokering the peace deal between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, President Aquino would express his gratitude by dropping the Sabah claim.

During the forum this morning at the University of the Philippines, Dr. Carmen Abubakar, former dean of the University of the Philippines Institute of Islamic Studies asked MILF chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal – who was also present – why “from day one” Sabah was not included in the discussions.

Iqbal replied that Sabah “is a foreign affairs issue”, meaning it was beyond the powers granted by the BBL.

For the first time, though, Iqbal spoke lengthily about the Sabah issue. Whenever I had asked him about it, he had always dodged the question. Today, he said for the first time that “personally” and “perhaps it reflects the position of the MILF, the Sabah claim will not be dropped. However, pursuing the Sabah claim would need two aspects – whether the claim would involve a sovereignty claim or a proprietary claim.”

And for the first time in the 18 years I have been covering the MILF peace talks and interviewing Iqbal as a source, he categorically said: “Organizationally, we would not agree to the dropping of the Sabah claim. Whoever drops the Sabah claim, magkakaroon ng (will suffer from) karma.”

But he reiterated that “the issue is whether to proceed on the sovereignty or proprietary claim. That will be be the decision of the Philippine government and the Sultanate (of Sulu).”

Please note that Iqbal was referring to whether Sabah is being claimed as part of Philippine territory or as a piece of property in Malaysian territory that is owned by the Sultanate of Sulu.

Personally, I feel it is unfair to demand that the BBL should contain a section on the Sabah issue when neither the 1996 peace deal of Moro National Liberation Front Nur Misuari nor the 1976 Tripoli Agreement, which Misuari also signed, made no mention of Sabah.

Misuari would have been in the proper position to raise the Sabah issue since his ancestor was the commander of the military force sent by the Sultanate of Sulu to come to the aid of his relative, the Sultan of Brunei. In gratitude for helping stamp out a rebellion, the Sultan of Brunei gave Sabah as a gift to the Sultanate of Sulu.

Because of this, I happen to believe that Sabah is part of the ancestral homeland of the people of Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. But the issue can be resolved in a peaceful and just manner. And it is to Malaysia’s interest to resolve it in that manner. As well as to ensure that the BBL uplifts the lives of all Moros of all ethnic groups.

In any case, after Iqbal spoke, Almarim Tillah, the former Tawi-Tawi governor and ex-Senator Santanina Rasul’s brother – whom I have also interviewed as a source – again stood up and underscored the need to discuss Sabah as an issue now, in connection with the passage of the BBL law.

Tillah questioned the use of Malaysia as the broker of the peace talks when Malaysia “is a party in interest” because of Sabah.

After I shared what Pres. Aquino had told me, Tillah spoke up again saying, “he (Aquino) has never made a statement (on Sabah) categorically….I have not heard our president (speak on the issue).”

So why – of all people – did the President tell me his stand on Sabah?

Only because I had asked him about it.

After I had asked him about Sabah, Aquino turned to an aide to ask what other activities he had that afternoon.

It was a broad hint for me to wind up the interview. But I did not take the hint. :)

You can listen to the video and read the transcript of the interview:

 

Interview with President Benigno Aquino III on the Sabah issue: 

Raissa Robles: Sir, sources have told me it was Malaysia which first offered a quid pro quo. But if the Philippines drops the claim to Sabah, Kuala Lumpur would back the Philippine claim in the West Philippine Sea. Is this true?

PRESIDENT AQUINO: No.

Raissa Robles: It’s not?

PRESIDENT AQUINO: If you look at the note verbale, it doesn’t even mention anything about Sabah. At saka ‘di ba, parang…Sorry…[Ito na naman ‘yung my smile that gets me into trouble.]

Raissa Robles: [laughs] Okay.

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Iyong giving up Sabah does not that open such a big can of worms in this country. Remember even my mother was attacked na, ‘are you giving up Sabah?’ et cetera, et cetera.

Raissa Robles: Yes.

PRESIDENT AQUINO: And what do we get in return? Another country helped us…You know, the other version of that it helped us in the UN (United Nations). So if Malaysia pulls its weight, it can convince all the other member countries in the UN to support our claim in the South China Sea or even within ASEAN. They are hosts for…They can support resolves the issues in the South China Sea and I gave up Sabah, and I open myself up to such a juicy item for all of the media to pounce on? To anybody who has entertained this idea that that was possible, that really smack so much of your rationality.

Raissa Robles: How is your attitude to Sabah, then?

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Leila (de Lima), SOJ (Secretary of Justice), did a study and perhaps one of the biggest issues there is the right of self-determination, which is I understand part of the UN Charter, okay.

It’s supposed to trump everything whether historical fact et cetera. At the end of the day, the people who are living there and if they are asked, ‘Will they say, they want to join us or they want to join Malaysia?’ There was supposed to have been a vote done —

Raissa Robles: 1960 —

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Whatever year it was.

Raissa Robles: 1960s under Foreign Secretary Emmanuel Pelaez. But he condemned that and he said that cannons were being brought all over the place to –

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Then that will be redone again. And we are having that understanding.

Raissa Robles: But are you going to openly tackle the Sabah question in your term or you prefer not to

PRESIDENT AQUINO: After I’m presented with a very good case, then baka pwedeng… [Sandali ha, off the record lang muna]

Raissa Robles: But you are not going to drop Sabah?

PRESIDENT AQUINO: No.

Raissa Robles: Okay, that’s a no.

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Pero ano it goes back to that enshrined right of self-determination. They will have to be asked where they want to go. And I am told that previously there had already been a plebiscite done to which they said they wanted to join the Malayan Federation.

Raissa Robles: But Pelaez said…Actually Pelaez gave me some papers, e during that time because I was covering him —

PRESIDENT AQUINO: Parang ngayon ‘di ba, parang some of our citizens in Basulta in Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi used the Ringgit to purchase their basic necessities from Sabah as opposed to Zamboanga. Do we really want to open that can of worms?

Raissa Robles: Actually, sir, I have a lot to say about Sabah but this is not the right time…Okay —

 

Comments

  1. http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/692069/cynthia-villar-is-richest-senator-trillanes-poorest

    Below is the list of the senators’ net worth in 2013.

    Senator Cynthia Villar (P1.983B)
    Senator Ralph Recto (P522M)
    Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr (P200.5M)
    Senator Jinggoy Estrada (P192.8M)
    Senator Ramon “Bong” Revilla Jr (P181.9M)
    Senator Juan Ponce Enrile (P121M)
    Senator Teofisto Guingona III (P113.4M))
    Senator Serge Osmeña III (P107 M)
    Senator Sonny Angara (P100.357M)
    Senator Grace Poe (P89.464M)
    Senator JV Ejercito (P75.5M)
    Senator Pia Cayetano (P73.4M)
    Senate President Franklin Drilon (P73.125M)
    Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago (P73.033M)
    Senator Vicente Sotto (P64.28M)
    Senator Nancy Binay (P62.558M)
    Senator Loren Legarda (P39. 6M)
    Senator Lito Lapid (P33. 8M)
    Sen. Bam Aquino (P24.536 M)
    Senator Alan Cayetano (P23.314 M)
    Sen. Gringo Honasan (P21. 225M)
    Sen. Aquilino Pimentel III (P18 M)
    Senator Francis Escudero (P6. 049M)
    Senator Antonio Trillanes IV (P5.549M)

    2013 saln daw ang mga ito? or typo lang ng inquirer?
    or nerehash ng inquirer ang old records nila? ano ba talaga?

  3. RAPPLER — New maps show Metro Manila’s quake danger zones (9:33 PM, May 18, 2015)

    http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/93575-valley-fault-system-map-launch

    “Disaster officials say the detailed maps will help Metro Manila and surrounding provinces prepare for a 7.2-magnitude earthquake expected within our lifetime”

    I do not mean to scare but this may be worth perusing and bookmarking. It is replete with areas to be affected and detailed maps.

    (The use of the phrase “expected within our lifetime” is the scary part.)

  4. Experience and Integrity

    Nagiging matunog ang ideal na kwalipikasyon ng isang Presidente: Experiensya at Integridad.

    Suriin natin ang mga nagbubuhat ng kanilang upuan!

    ***

    Many are pushing for Grace to be running for President, bakit? One of the main reasons why Escudero, Trillanes, and Cayetano like the idea is that the VP slot is nobody’s game and they have their chance!

    Binay and UNA wants Poe to run as LPs President. Para silang Tabla-Panalo at always win-win! Pag nanalo si Binay abwselto. Pag nanalo si Poe Abswelto si Binay, enrile, Jinggoy at Bong!

    Si PNoy naman eh halatang gustong hudasin ulit si Roxas para lang siguradong abswelto rin sya sa kaso sa PDAF at DAP, pero di lang nya agad magawa dahil may hawak din na mga alas sila Abad at Drilon at Roxas kaya under consultation pa kuno ang pagpili ng Pres at VP tandem ng LP!

  5. Experience and Integrity

    Nagiging matunog ang ideal na kwalipikasyon ng isang Presidente: Experiensya at Integridad.

    Suriin natin ang mga nagbubuhat ng kanilang upuan!

    ***

    Many are pushing for Grace to be running for President, bakit? One of the main reasons why Escudero, Trillanes, and Cayetano like the idea is that the VP slot is nobody’s game and they have their chance!

    Binay and UNA wants Poe to run as LPs President. Para silang Tabla-Panalo at always win-win! Pag nanalo si Binay abwselto. Pag nanalo si Poe Abswelto si Binay, enrile, Jinggoy at Bong!

    Si PNoy naman eh halatang gustong hudasin ulit si Roxas para lang siguradong abswelto rin sya sa kaso sa PDAF at DAP, pero di lang nya agad magawa dahil may hawak din na mga alas sila Abad at Drilon at Roxas kaya under consultation pa kuno ang pagpili ng Pres at VP tandem ng LP!

    **
    Balik tayo sa Experience at Integridad.
    Tama si Binay, kailangan may experence sa governance ang contender sa pagka-presidente dahil kung wala eh puppet lang yan ng mga handlers at ang boses ng tao eh paos at anumang pangako eh siguradong mapapako!

    Tama rin si Poe na wala syang experience pero may integredad daw at malinis ang pagkatao ng presidente tulad ni Cory Aquino. Aba eh nagpasaring na may integridad sya at inihambing pa ang sarili kay Cory. Agree ako na katulad sya ni Cory di dahil sa integridad kung hindi eh dahil sa inexperience!

    Pero Mali pa rin sila pareho kung dahil:

    1. Experience in governance

    – Binay eh talagang experiensyado sa pagnanakaw ng pera ng Makati at Bilyones kung tumira, big-time! Kung Presidente ng Pilipinas na sya eh patay, para silang may joint account sa pera ng Pilipinas at pa-withdraw-withdraw lang at transfer sa Canada at Caymans ang pera ng bayan! Experience na magnanakaw ay di natin kailangan! SI Nancy ang Senat President, Abi ang Speaker of the House at si Junjun eh groomed to be the next President at si Elenita eh balik Mayor ng Makati! Sarap nga naman ng Political Dynasty na very Powerful. Sino ang mag-aakala from rags o riches at di lang rich, politically powerful pa! Kaso na 1-2-3 si Mercado kaya ayun nabulgar at experienced talaga, experience sa plunder!

    2. Integrity daw sabi ni Poe tulad ni Cory– Aba eh ngayon lang ata natin narinig ang integrity na yan.

    Eh nasan yung integrity ni Poe noong kainitan sa Overpriced Makati Parking Building? Eh may kasunod pang Hacienda Binay? At ito pang frozen bank accounts ng mga Binay at mga dummies nya. May narinig ba tayo sa kanya? Silence is not integrity. Integrity is showing your conviction at proper times and side with the people and not hedging by playing both sides of LP and UNA! Ngayon na lang pumiyok dahil tinira ni Binay at para naman bilhin ng tao na di sila kampi ni Binay at suportado ang Tuwid na Daan.

    Naks! Hanep sa choreography ng mga handlers na mga dating staffs ni Jinggoy na ngayon eh kay Poe na!

    Nabanggit pa ni Grace si Cory. Eh sa experience natin kay Cory eh talaga namang di maganda ang kanyang governance dahil wala ngang alam. Si Cory ay emotional candidate and an accident at walang choice yung mga Pilipino noon dahil sino ng papalit si Doy Laurel o di kaya si Enrile?
    Yung inexperience in Cory eh laking opportunity ang nawala sa Pilipinas. Yung mga utang natin eh di nabawasan man lang dahil nag kowtow sa IMF at World Bank kaya hanggang ngayon eh ang bigat ng dalahin natin sa pagbayad ng utang at di tayo nakabangon a napapag-iwanan tayo ng Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand at Indonesia. Yung si Pambansang Baba eh namamayapag at si Eldon Cruz na asawa ni Balsy eh panay gaw ng pera-kaliwat kanan. Panay pa Coup dahil weak si Cory at maka-kaliwa noon. Meaning daming handlers ni Cory at kanya-kanyang hatak ng pisi para gawin nya ang mga bagay na makakatulong sa pagpayaman ng mga alipores na magnanakaw. Lakas pa ng simbahan at naantala ng ilang taon ang RH dahil reliyosa si Tita! Daming brownouts, ekonomiya eh mas lalong bumagsak at naprepara lalo ang pagbagsak ng ekonomiya.Mabuti na lang at swerte si Tabako dahil noong term nya eh sa dami ng pera ng mga foreigners na naghahanap ng mapapagkitaan eh dami ang nagsugal sa Pilipinas sa madaliang kita. Yun nagkaron ng improvement yung ekonomiya kuno sa papel, pero panandalian lang at ng magkaron ng krisis sa ekonomiya worldwide na sinumulan sa pagbagsak ng Thailand eh mabilis pa sa alas-kwatro eh hinatak na ng mga foreign investments na hot moneyyung mga pera nila at sabay bagsak ng ekonomiya. Mabuti na lang marami tayong OFW kundi talo pa yung taong nahulog sa Petronas Tower na napisa sa lakas ng bagsak. Ang tulad nating mga OFW ang parachute ng Pilipinas, though bumagsak eh di napisa dahil may alalay.

    Balik tayo kay Grasya. Si Grace eh ngayon na lang nagising, narinig, at nakita ang katiwalian ni Binay dahil masangsang na ang amoy ni Binay at dahil na rin nag-audition para sa pagiging kandidato ng LP. Kung ang tawag dyan ay integridad eh di dapat lang na agree tayo na may experience nga at mabuting executive si Binay para fair di ba? Eh ano na kung Presidente sya, di laging huli na ang kanyang pagkakaalam sa mga magiging katiwalian ng mga handlers nya?

    ***

    Ang tanong sino nga ba among the Presidential Contenders ang may experience sa governance, walang bahid ng kurapsyon at di nagpayaman sa pwesto, at may integridad?

    Oh Korina, may order ang LP na huwag makialam sa pulitika kaya hwag kang sasagot dahil di ikaw ang tinatanong ko, ano. Pag pumiyok ka eh ilalabas na naman yung scandal mo noong nabuking ka ni Paul Aquino at sinampal mo ng tsinelas ang katulong mo na nakatulog sa baba ng lobby ng condo at di ka natimbrihan na parating na si Paul at di mo nalinis ang kwarto na may dalwang wine glass at dalwang plato at yung underwear mo eh halatang bago lang hinubad at nakapatong sa kama, at yung kama eh talo pa ang may nagrambol na pusa at aso sa gulo, at ikaw eh nabisto ni Paul (Dad ni Bam at Uncle ng exBF Noynoy) na may isa pang poging sideline kasi ala ng lakas si Paul at ikaw eh nasa pea noon.

    Alam kong alam mo ang sagot, pero let others answer my question ano…

    Parekoy
    05-18-2015

    • baycas,

      – At least any hope of Binay-Poe tandem is now out;
      – Nice choice of words by the up-and-coming Poe

      What was Binay thinking? That the newbie will not respond with words more biting than he fielded. Binay is no match to Poe in intelligent, apt choice of words, delivered with the appropriate tone and articulateness.

      So the Election Heat has started in earnest, not only here at CPM. This will exercise my heart in place of my usual one-hour walk which I have not been doing lately because of the heat.

      • There is a palpable momentum I sense in the march of events to the obvious discomfort of Binay.

        I sense too, a change in some tactics: instead of the rabid attack dogs Tiangco and Bautista and even Certeza who got “wet” lately, they have been replaced by the “feminine” touch of the two daughters, Nancy and Abigail, for the heroic defense — a mission impossible. Sad to say, it is difficult to get public sympathy if the product you are selling is not a good one, in fact a damaged or spoiled product.

        • You are of course referring to that paragon of experience and competence, none other than Senator Nancy Binay herself? I wonder if perhaps the VP was referring to the kind of hidden deals she might have learned at the personal tutelage of her parents, otherwise its hard to imagine these statements coming from Nancy instead of her father.

        • I am referring to the appearance of Nancy and Abigail before the TV cameras lately, instead of seeing the mugs of, say, Tiangco, Bautista or Certeza.

          In the case of Nancy she commented that the wasted time spent between Pnoy and Poe was better spent on matters like increasing employment/ jobs or some such nonsense.

          In the case of Abigail, it was the interview with Karen Davila of ANC where the Congresswoman explained a little bit of the Limlingan and Binay joint accounts and the flight of monies to Canada.

          Thus, my impression of the daughters being employed to do the talking-script normally done by the above-mentioned lawyers. Perhaps it is meant to deliver some damage control bit but not to add fuel to the fire. Seeing the mugs of those guys certainly will do the latter.

      • Don’t give up the walk. Just get up earlier and prolong your time on earth.

    • Two scenarios:

      1. Moro-moro-

      bale rumesbak kuno si Poe at Escudero kay Binay! Sa tagal ng panahon na namamayagpag ang imbestigasyon sa Senado sa Overpriced Makati Parking Building at Hacienda Binay, ang dalwang ito eh parang mga bulag-Pipi-at-bingi!

      Ngayon na lang pumiyok at napansin na kailangan ni Binay na magpaliwanag sa Senado!

      Diba si Chiz eh arkitekto ng Noy-Bi? Dibawalaitong imik pagpatungkol kay Binay at dinedepensahan pa? Si Poe din eh pasiguro at di tinitira si Binay? Bakit ngayon lang? Kasi wala ng choice, kailangan akita na kontra kuno sila kay Binay para kuno kalaban nanila ang dati nilang kakampi, pero pag nahala eh bati na ulit at papatawarin at iaabswelto samga kaso, pati na si Jinggoy, bong at Enrile.

      Manchurian Candidates ni Erap.

      2. Auditioning for LP and Aquinos endorsement for the position of Pres and VP, as Poe-Escudero tandem. Both are outsiders!

      PDI launched the Trial balloons of Poe-Roxas and Poe-Escudero and see the reactions of the public. Si Neptali Gonzales eh amenable daw kay Poe-Escudero pero sila Abad, at Drilon ay Mar-Poe pa rin.

      **
      overall nabanggit ko na dati na talagang magaling ang mga nasainner circle ni Poe sa strategy sa Pulitika, tinalo pa yung mga veteranong trapoe! Planado ang releases ng mga statements. Nasa gitna kalimitan at rumuresbak lang kay Binay sa tamang panahon!

      Kudos to Poes handlers! Well done!

      Now we wait for the geniuses of LP on how they are going to spin the fight kuno of Binay against Poe…

    • “Gusto rin naming malaman kaya nga ang hirap ding mag-attend ng hearing na ang mismong pinaparatangan ay hindi sumasama dahil para bang nagsasalita ka sa likod ng taong yun. So para sa akin ang huhusga nyan, ang katibayan at ang ng mga kababayan…”

      that is her main reason why she’, Grace, have been silent, absent, not attending any hearing of SBRC re Makati Anomalies.
      i remember one time in news when second time supposedly junjun will attend that Grace will attend also the same date. but due to junjun’s abante-atras mode, Grace did not attend. and that is the reason.
      (this reasoning of hers has been in my mind for quite sometime now. ang gusto niyang tanungin ay iyong mismong principal na inaakusahan at hindi ang mga alipores.)

      Grace is like Noli Me Tangere… touch me not! or wag mo akong salingin or wag mo akong unahan.
      or katniss everdeen of mockingjay part 1 saying “if we burn, you Burn!!!!”

      • Ang tanong ko lang bakit parang malaki yata discrepancy ng pinaliwanag ni Atty. Princess Tugarno nuon at sa lumalabas sa AMLC report ngayon.

        Iyon ba ang dahilan kung bakit sya hinimatay?

  7. Who is Dr. Jose “Toots” Albert?

    Dr. Jose Ramon “Toots” Albert is a professional statistician who has written on poverty measurement, education statistics, agricultural statistics, climate change, macro-prudential monitoring, survey design, data mining, and statistical analysis of missing data. He is a Senior Research Fellow of the government’s think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies, and the president of the country’s professional society of data producers, users and analysts, the Philippine Statistical Association, Inc. for 2014-2015. He also teaches at De La Salle University, Holy Angel University and at the Asian Institute of Management.

    Dr. Jose Ramon G. Albert said that the results of survey by SWS and Pulse Asia should be trusted. He also said that SWS and Pulse Asia are reputable organizations and further illustrated:

    “Comparing the pre-election surveys of these two reputable organizations with the final election results, we find that the polling yielded fairly reasonable estimates of voting preferences on election day (see Table 1).”

    Table 1. Results of Pre-Election and Election Day Surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia on Voting Preferences for Presidential Candidates: 1992-2010

    1992
    Presidential candidates Comelec SWS Pulse Asia
    May 10 Apr 26 – May 4
    Fidel Ramos 23.6 26.8
    Miriam Santiago 19.7 25.0
    Eduardo Cojuangco Jr. 18.2 16.2
    Ramon Mitra Jr. 14.6 14.1
    Imelda Marcos 10.3 6.5
    Other candidates 13.6 11.4
    # of respondents 1200

    1998
    Presidential candidates Comelec SWS Pulse Asia
    May 10 May 2-4 Apr 26-29
    Joseph Estrada 39.9 33.0 37.0
    Jose De Venecia 15.9 15.0 31.0
    Raul Roco 13.8 11.0 11.0
    Lito Osmeña 12.4 11.0 7.0
    Alfredo Lim 8.7 10.0 5.0
    Other candidates 9.3 20.0 9.0
    # of respondents 1500

    2004
    Presidential candidates Comelec SWS Pulse Asia
    May 10 May 1-4 April 23-25
    Gloria Arroyo 40.0 37.0 37.0
    Fernando Poe Jr. 36.5 30.0 31.0
    Panfilo Lacson 10.9 11.0 11.0
    Raul Roco 6.5 6.0 7.0
    Eddie Villanueva 6.2 4.0 5.0
    Other candidates 0.0 12.0 9.0
    # of respondents 2000 1800

    2010
    Presidential candidates Comelec SWS Pulse Asia
    May 10 May 2-4 April 26-29
    Noynoy Aquino 42.1 42.0 39.0
    Joseph Estrada 26.3 20.0 20.0
    Manny Villar 15.4 19.0 20.0
    Gilbert Teodoro 11.3 9.0 7.0
    Eddie Villanueva 3.1 3.0 3.0
    Other candidates 1.8 7.0 11.0
    # of respondents 2400 1800

    Sources: SWS, Pulse Asia and Comelec

    The SWS and Pulse Asia thus have a track record of good forecasting performance of election results, with estimates of voter preference for the top five candidates in pre-election surveys generally within 3 percentage points of the election day results.

    • Ang iba naghihintay pa sa resulta ng trabaho ng kanilang highly-paid creative accountants, lalo na ngayon na hinalungkat ang bank accounts. Hindi malaman kung P1.8M ang ilalagay o P1.8B na dagdag sa NET ng SALN.
      Kung magkabistuhan mag dadahilan. Isang letra lang ang pagkakamali — M (at hindi B) na tunay kong intensyon. What is the problem with one letter? Ayon pinulitika na naman ang pagkamali ko sa isang letra. (Hahaha.)

  9. TIGHTENING OF THE NET

    Inquirer — 14 resource persons face Senate arrest

    19 was originally in the list to be cited for contempt by the Senate BRC and face arrests:

    – 14 cited today May 18, among which is Limlingan;

    – 3 were already earlier cited in contempt by Guingona’s committee: Eduviges “Ebeng” Baloloy, Engineer Line Dela Pena and Bernadette Portallano;

    – 2 withdrawn from list because they appeared at the Senate on May 11 with promise to attend May 28 Hearing: UMak Pres Tomas Lopez and Engineer Mario Badillo

    Thus, 17 (= 14 + 3), to my reading, are facing arrests — especially Binay’s star players: Limlingan and Baloloy.

    Through request of the Senate BRC of Guingona, DOJ’s NBI is on the trail of the star players Limlingan and Baloloy.

    Coincidence or not, the trend, methinks, follows a plan as one would like to script (ref – Parekoy).

    BTW, I note that NBI has a good batting average (compared to the ineffective Binay’s lawyers).

    • TRIVIA

      In the case of Sen Trillanes’ Script, the last part of the saga is:

      Binay — “I surrender” (my paraphrasing of backing-out of the race).

      I am not a gambling man but the words, I understand are:

      – DEHADO
      – LLAMADO

      Meaning, if you bet against Sen Trillanes’ take, a DEHADO situation gives you a better return, but you will probably lose. In contrast, a LLAMADO situation gives you a lower return and you will probably win.

      Can’t be definite which way I go. It is a 50-50 thing for me.

    • GO, GO NBI — you have been true to your past glories and achievements. I salute you. Get those two SOBs and I believe, if I were DOJ Chief, you can all take the rest of the year on vacation. And please keep watch on the big B; he may suddenly disappear from the radar for parts unknown.

      • WHAT A PICKLE BINAY IS IN IF LIMLINGAN CONTINUES NOT TO APPEAR

        – If Limlingan and Baloloy continue to be missing, it will add to Binay’s woes, no doubt. Even our poor voters are intelligent enough to appreciate that and make that judgement.

        – If Limlingan and Baloloy are arrested and appear at the Senate Blue Ribbon Subcom hearing, although they have every right not to answer some questions, by invoking their right not to be self-incriminated, Binay will be hurt nevertheless with the sharp questions such as may come from Sen Cayetano. In fact now that Binay is damaged, a lot of Senators may appear to be part of the show.

        WHAT A MESS — TO BINAY, THAT IS.

        • are they really missing? i think there is nowhere they can hide. every part of the world has filipinos haunting them. baka matagal na silang wala sa mundong ito. I will not be surprised, though.

        • I wouldn’t be surprised too if he is “not in this world anymore.” Only that the family was defending Limlingan after the AMLC revelations. Of course, they may be disguising their grief? Well, we will see how the local version of J Edgar Hoover’s Institution prospers in its search. I am optimistic.

  10. THE SCRIPT WRITER GIVES A PART TO THE SENADORA

    Sorry, guys, can’t help it.

    GMA-NEWS — Nancy Binay: PNoy taking so long to endorse LP bet for 2016 polls (May 17, 2015 6:15pm)

    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/488786/news/nation/nancy-binay-pnoy-taking-so-long-to-endorse-lp-bet-for-2016-polls

    Here’s a gem:
    ————————————————————
    “On my part, ang daming problemang kailangang harapin. Pati ba naman ang paghanap ng kandidato ng LP ay kailangang pagtuunan ng ating Presidente ng ilang meeting? Base sa mga report, mukhang mahaba ang naging pag-uusap nila ni Sen. Grace. Sana ‘yung pag-uusap na ‘yun, ang napag-usapan na lang ay paano madadagdagan ang mga trabaho,” she said.
    ————————————————————
    Why indeed should the time spent on that Pnoy-Poe tete-a-tete not spent better talking about how to increase jobs. That hit me. She does talk sense, contrary to that sobriquet given her imply.

    Pero Ano kaya, kung ang tete-a-tete ay sa pagitan ni Pnoy at Daddy Binay, ano kaya ang sasabihin niya?

    HERE IS ANOTHER ONE:

    GMA-NEWS –Sen. Nancy Binay thinks Limlingan, Baloloy to surface at ‘right time’

    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/488966/news/nation/sen-nancy-binay-thinks-limlingan-baloloy-to-surface-at-right-time

    ———————————————————–
    “‘Yun ang hirap eh. Magbabato sila ng akusasyon pero wala silang ebidensya. Tapos ‘yung inaakusahan nila gusto nila ‘yun ang maglabas ng evidence to dispute the allegations,” she said.
    ———————————————————–

    Makes sense to me. The only problem is the substantial evidence shown in the AMLC investigation of the bank accounts of a Limlingan and Bololoy, and the money flows, considering the dearth of facts of the businesses of these Binay associates, with both earning something in the neighborhood of P30k a month. Of course, if dear SENADORA failed in Elementary Arithmetic I can understand.

    MY ADVICE TO THE SCRIPT WRITER — maawa naman kayo, pagbutihin naman ang skrip. Alam ko marunong magbasa si SENADORA, gaya ni Noli de Castro.

  12. http://opinion.inquirer.net/84995/why-poe-will-beat-binay-in-polls

    In the link above is an opinion by someone who has a bit more credibility than what I have heard circulating in this blog so far which seems to be driven more by personal preferences other than a realistic assessment of the current situation. Neal believes Grace Poe will most likely be fielded to head the Liberal party ticket next year based on his reading of the signals Pinoy and the LP mouthpieces have been sending out. It helps that she is closing in on Binay in the surveys and he thinks she will overtake him in the next one due to the hit the VP is taking from the AMLC instigated asset freeze. In fact Neal believes the hit was a TKO and will remove Binay from the race.

    I concur with his opinion that Grace Poe will most likely emerge as the LP’s presidential choice. A challenge to Poe’s candidacy because of the nature of her birth should not be an insurmountable obstacle although this is not addressed in his piece. However I have no idea how they expect to ask Mar to run for VP and how Mar can possibly accept given how unjust and shameful that would be for all parties concerned, particularly if the need to deal with an overwhelming Binay lead is no longer an excuse.

    But the thing is, I do not believe that Binay will want to withdraw his candidacy nor can he afford to. If anything, the only thing that will shield him and his family is his running for and getting elected president in 2016. This is more true now than ever given that the AMLA evidence and the Ombudsman’s investigations are coming up with compelling proof to indict and convict his son, his wife, and himself. His most viable option is to continue with his campaign and should the surveys start showing his candidacy losing, fleeing the country with other legally vulnerable members of his family where he has had his minions remit his hidden billions. Prognostications of Trillanes and other supposed political pundits aside, Binay’s leaving the race seems at this stage little else more than wishful thinking.

    • Neal is a paid hack if you reread his articles pre-Tuwid na Daan.

      He was able to resurrect his column when he sided and echoed the sentiments of the Netizens. Human. Nature and psych 101 state that peole like to hear opinionswhich affirms their position and good formula for Neal he adoted that approach.

      But he was reading his tea leaves wrong and actually hedging and qualifying his statements based on the surveys and recent meeting with Aquino, but he did not mention about Roxas panned appearance at the later part of the meeting. Another important compoent is media is downplaying the one-on-one meeting between Roxas and Poe after Aquino left the meeting. Evardone is now introducing Roxas as si Mar-Poe as well as Abaya’s and LPs head honchos consistentproclaimation that Roxas is their standard bearer.

      Recently Roxas even parted with loaded double-meanigs by saying that he introces. Himself now with more respect by proclaming he is Mar—poe…

      Then there isnow an or orchestrated media blitz in propping Mar’s chances as the Administration Prseidential candidate and standard bearer and coupe of LP ground consultations wherein Mar wasconstantly introduced as The NextPresidnt of the Philippines with local LPs and recruits are corraling the herd and. The herd replied with such gusto for the gravy train is with LP and local politicians want a share f that manna for their advantage too.

      Binay will not withdraw and wil fight to the end since he is almost sre that LP is after teir whole dynasty and Binays inner circle are already leaving him. Chiz dropped him like a hot potatoonce the AMLC reprt was leaked and Ochoa and Belmonte are now kowtowing the party line f they want to continue having soe pwer in Roxas Administration. Binay is doomed but by fighting he might be able to have some concessions when there is a possibility that LP might negotiate with him by endorsing Roxas in the middle of campaign, and that. Is not farfetch since LP is a bunchof realst and opportunist too who will trade their ‘principles’ if insured victory. Binay gains by storing his ill-gotten welthn ases in purgatory.

      Poe’s adviser and political staffs are realist too and fraternity brothers of Roxas staffs too and Pes staffs know so well that Poe is a sure VP winner but will have a 45-55 odds of losing the presidency. Pecwill settle for VP and after 6 years will be very formidabe that she can form her own party with a combiation of Eraps, Angara, Aquino, and Roxas defectors and a bunch of Oligarchs shoving their campaign contributions aa investmdnt and protection of Pe’s sure win in 2022 Presdential elections.

      Neal does not know a close friend who is a frat brother of Poe’s inner circle and that relationship is priceless if you ant reliable info.

      • If Binay endorses Roxas in a quid pro quo scheme, then Roxas would lose to just about anyone out there. A Binayless scenario without Poe would probably embolden Erap to run and unfortunately for all of us, probably win.

        • Binay is going to run to hedge, so he has the lottery ticket and if during the campaign period Roxas’ fortune is like alibabas then Binay will try to negotiate with Mar that Binay is endorsing Mar. Erap is not a candidate so it is too late for him sincehe does not have a lottery ticket.

          By the way, yung Comelec eh parang jueteng yan sa pag draw ng dalwang winning numbers, alam na yung numerong panalo.

          Tingnan nyo si Chiz, si Colmenares at Casino, si Pedrosa na makaBinay, si Belmonte na boss ni Ochoa na makaBinay eh. Nilalaglag na si Binay. Kasi itong mga tusong pulitikong ito eh lakaw ng pang-amoy sa mga talunana kaya nagtatalunan na sa ibang kandidato.

          Basahin nyo ang PhilStar atbabangan nyo ang mga bumabaligtad na mga columnista, kasi open ng timanggap sa iba kasi paso na yung buwanan nila kay Binay para wag lang magsulat ng kahit na anong kontra kay Binay, meaning paid sila basta ignore lang, kasi pagsumulat sila ng kampi kay Binay tulad ni Maceda eh halata na propaganda, so tawag nyan ay silent treatment with payola.

          Yung PDI eh nagsimula na ang ratsadang kontra Binay at pagpuri kay Roxas at talagang isinusulong yung Roxas-Poe. GMA7 eh panay na ang palabaa ng mga activities ni Roxas at panay slant na di pa handa si Poe. ABS-CBN eh paneutral pa kuno, pero may package deal ng nakahanda para sa LP.

          Ngayon abbangan nyo ang media dahil fullblast na ang altanghap (almusal-tanghalian-hapunan) na pagreport sa ill-gotten wealth at AMlC frozen accounts ng mga dummy ni Binay na sampung beses ka epektibo gaya noong binanatan si Manny Villar sa kung naligo ka na ba sa basura at c5, at di naka-recover.

          Abangan!

      • Actually Neal writes very well and his recent pieces on condonation and the justice system speak for the clarity of his vision regardless of his political affiliations. He certainly is not a paid mouthpiece for Binay. I will take the logic and the relevance of his opinions over the whispered chismis of a lavandera, yaya, or mole in Pinoy, Poe, or Binay’s inside circles anyday.

        • Actually I find the inside information of Parekoy quite interesting, whoever his sources may be. The question being whether what his sources want to happen will actually happen, whether their strategies will lead to the outcome they want, whatever the machinery they have it doesn’t have to. Binay is done I think, but I wouldn’t believe anything until he is actually punished. Maybe he won’t, maybe it is just about getting him out of the Presidential race like Parekoy wrote. As for Poe, this natural-born citizenship issue is probably part of the campaign to get rid of Mar Roxas competitors.

          As for surveys, does anyone here know with what metrics and what sampling methods they work? Because that determines the accuracy of their predictions, assuming some degree of honesty…

          And I do remember how reputable institutes in Germany failed to predict Schröder’s 1998 victory – because the structure of German society had rapidly changed after the fall of the Berlin wall and the assumptions they were working with, and therefore their sampling was totally outdated. Now there are major differences here – ballot counting in Germany is done immediately in the precincts with reps of every major party present and a quite honest culture, the preliminary tally is summed up by the next morning from local counts, all ballots are paper.

          But even here there are occasional scandals and corrections, because voting by mail has already been used to try to cheat, inspite of laws punishing election cheating with jail terms. Therefore the next question is, how safe and how well checked is the voting/counting process in the Philippines? How good is the audit trail of PCOS machines, who checks the results locally and nationally, how fast is the count. Because a count that takes more than two days in todays electronic world is already very suspect in my eyes. With electronic voting there is absolutely no reason for the count not to be finished the evening after the precincts close.

          Are there overviews of the tallies for every precinct that appear in the papers next morning? Todays possibilities would even allow for Excel sheets or PDFs of the tallies to be posted in the internet for citizens to check. Like I wrote, with a proper database application, all that needs to be done is to enter the results for every precinct immediately after the preliminary count and you have a very quick national tally. But I fear that if the procedure is just as absurd as tax filing for self-employed, you have a lot of room for “magic”. Who knows more about that aspect?

        • @ireneo, ich merke dass Du ein Anhänger von Parekoy bist. Du bist nicht allein. Lol! ich finde Ihn ein wenig wie ein Angeber aber ich glaube schon das er schreibt Sinnvoll. Der hat auch viele Quellen wo er seine Meinungen her hat. Davon bin ich Überzeugt.

        • I think you mean self-confidence = Selbstvertrauen, Vertrauen =confidence or trust. Just checked how Google Translate does it as usual not so accurate.

          “ein wenig wie ein Angeber” means “medyo mayabang ang dating minsan”.

          “aber ich glaube schon dass er schreibt sinnvoll” means “but I think he writes sense”.

          “Der hat auch viele Quellen wo er seine Meinungen her hat. Davon bin ich Überzeugt.” Also I am convinced that he has many sources for his opinions.

          So more or less puwede na rin iyong translation na pinost ni BFD sa baba. But a really good Internet dictionary is http://dict.leo.org/ from the University of Munich.

        • he-he-he! thanks for that ireneo. i thought you were the one who answered that and i was wondering, what did you mean by that? till i read the name that it was parekoy. Hi Parekoy! it was not really bad what i just commented. i just noticed that everytime you write something and somehow you get into argument with anyone here, ireneo came always to your rescue.

        • Recently when it comes to this political party internal stuff – yes, not because I am a fan or something but because the stuff makes sense to me. Of course the source is from a certain side, a part of what the source may say could be self-serving in a sense it always is, but this stuff sounds plausible. Especially the mention of the name Rep. Evardone (Samar) made me startle a bit…

          It is a fact that this stuff is typical political gamesmanship – same things happen in Germany, from the level of the village mayor to the Bundeskanzler.

          Political parties have internal groups, for example in the CDU there was the alleged Andenpakt which were the “Men against Merkel”, the last of them to go was supposedly ex-President Wulff, some people say the stuff about his friend Maschmeyer inviting him for free vacations and allegedly getting some political benefits out of it coming out was just Merkel’s indirect way of getting rid of him, even the stuff about his young wife possibly having been a part-time escort lady coming out was well-timed, or maybe just coincidence.

          Another version, also possible, maybe even both have some truth, is about hitting back at the Hannover cross-party political and business Mafia to which Gerd Schröder may have belonged, well his law office partner did represent the uncrowned King of the German Hells Angels – Hanebuth – and full legalisation of prostitution which benefitted biker gangs was during Gerd’s term. Maschmeyer also moved in those circles – allegedly of course.

          So if even relatively efficient and honest Germany is like that, how much more the Philippines? Anyway when Wulff left the vuvuzelas drowned out the military fanfare farewell for him, poor guy, stepped on the wrong toes I guess.

        • Ireneo is smart and a good analyst. He can’t just be duped.

          If you give him enough info he will be able to stitch the whole thing and provide you with a suit that Hugo Boss will be proud of!

          The good trait of Ireneo is that he is not afraid to try and commit mistakes in the process, with that he becomes formidable and will be a very good contributor politically. His articles in his blog are so educational and makes boring stuffs interesting. What more if he applies it to interesting stuff like politics, I expect that readers will be glued more.

          :)

        • The more the history moves closer to the present, the more political it gets.

          Founding Fathers, Rizal, Bonifacio, Aguinaldo, OK.. That the Philippines basically has a Civil and Penal Code based on Spanish laws, also relevant because on of the major threads I am dealing with is how institutions developed. But the aborted Malolos Republic, not so interesting because it left no living institutions just the flag, more interesting is the Philippine Senate starting 1916 in my next article Wednesday.

          Then the week after, the Commonwealth, the 1935 Constitution, how McArthur helped build the Philippine Armed Forces… were it gets warmer is postwar period, Enter Makoy, dictatorship, Cory, Ramos, Erap, Gloria, Noynoy…

          Institutions and their development are an important aspect because they play a major role in current events. Plus parties, alliances, families, regions.

          Another thread will be the history of the Filipino Muslims. So in due time the topics in my blog will become more political,but I want to flesh it out more. So that those who are curious about the Philippines can gain a quicker understanding of the sometimes – to outsiders – confusing local scene. Fur current discussions and more details I refer to this blog anyway. Eventually my blog could become like a “Philippines for Dummies” free online book.

        • Yung PCOS eh fina-astbreak na ng Comelec, kaya si Jarius Bondoc eh aatakihin na sa puso dahil talagang sy ang nag-expose ng Hocus-PCOS noon pa mang 2013.

          Saka si Jarius eh ang tsismiz eh nasa kampo ni Binay pero ang purpose e-nuetralize ang PCOS para level playing field ang election kasi talagang tapos na ang boksing tulad noong 2013 pag di nacheck yung PCOS. Eh yung LP eh napwesto na si Bautista at bago yan napwesto ni PNoy eh may kasunduan na yan. yung relative naman ni Iqbal eh para sigurado ang mga majority ng MILF candidates ang manalo sa Bangsamoro Elections, at higit sa lahat eh may bago ng Garci ang LP.

          Kaya alam na yan ng UNA at sigurado na silang talunan, ang hangad ni BInay at Erap eh malukluk si Grasya para naman di madisgrasya si Binay sa mga kaso at abswelto si Enrile, Jinggoy, at Bong! Cutting your losses ang tawag nyan kaya naman yung paboritong reporter ni Binay na si Maila Ager eh nagpasabog na naman ng Poe-Roxas at Poe-Escudero at away na kuno si Poe at Binay at wala na sa picture si Roxas, para naman bilogin ang tao na ang limited choice ay si Poe o Binay. Win-win si Binay dyan at si Erap, win na rin si Aquino pero talunan ang Tuwid na Daan at mga LP dahil mabilis pa sa als-kwatro take over ang UNA at mga bataan ni Erap na matagal ng gutom at maka-pagbundat na naman sa pera ng bayan.

          Sabi nga ni Erap Weder-weder lang yan ang kaso pag nanalo si Poe as President eh para tayong dinaanan ng Delubyo, may bagyo na , may lindol pa, at may baha pa.

        • teka muna, @parekoy. masyado akong nalalaliman sa mga tagalog mo. ano ang ibig sabihin ng “malukluk”? i’m sure there are also readers who are “simple” in the head like me na hindi maka-gets. totoo ba pag nanalo si Poe, she will side with Erap, Binay (will be pardoned if proven guilty), Enrile, Jinggoy at Bong. Who is then expected to win as partner of Poe and what would be his role?

        • @caliphman, it is a possible scenario. That’s why it should be Mar-Poe…. not the other way around…

        • Malukluk meaning ma-elect o maipwesto.

          Given na abswelto si Jinggoy! Si Enrile mukhang di pa makalabas yan at si Bong dahil yan ang kondisyon ni PNoy na ipagpatuloy ang Tuwid na Daan. Kahit ngayon ay ginagapang na agad ni Erap si PNoy at LP para maisalba si Jinggoy kaya nga naalala nyo yung ban ni Erap sa Manila yung mga Trucks eh parang piniga nya noon si PNoy sa ekonomiya dahil di makalabas-labas ng on-time yung mga containers. Pero noong napikon na si PNoy eh pinadalhan na ng mga armado sa City Hall para brasuhin na si Erap at nag-give-up din si Erap pero may secret concessions yun. Naalala nyo si Isko Moreno eh nagpalipad na sa Admin daw tatakbo ng pagka Senador, akala ko ba UNA, pero bakit bigla atang may nangyari after lifting ng Truck Ban sa Maynila?

          Si Erap naman eh talagang dami ng pinagdaan yan at alam na ang kalakaran. Alam nya na si Grace ang kasagutan ng kanilang problema kaya di nyo halata, laglag na nya si BInay noon pa at yung kaso ni Jinggoy eh marami ng mga blunders sa side ng prosecution at si Sunas at ibang testigo eh kumakambyo para may butas later para kay Jinggoy?

          As of now Mar-Poe pa rin.

          Yung palipad na Poe-Roxas at yung blunder na proposal ni Poe na Poe-Escudero eh nagpapakita lang kung papano maglaro si Grace. Magaling kasi yung political advisers ni Poe, mga dating alipores yan ng genius political adviser ni Erap na si Jimmie Policarpio, kaya loaned yan kay Poe ng kampo ni Erap kasi alam na nila Erap na si Poe ang susi sa kanilang protection at pagbabalik sa National scene.

          Si Escudero eh kahit si Grace at kampo ni Erap alam na hudas yan. Dati na yang hudas sa NPC at gusto pang isahan si Boss Danding, yun sa kangkungan sya pinulot at yung ambisyon nyang maging presidente eh naudlot. Ginapang nya rin si Erap pero si Erap e wais at naisahan din si Chiz dahil alam ni Erap barbarian na si Chiz at naghahanap ng kalabaw na madadapuan kasi nga langaw na lang si Chiz na kailangan mong hampasin ng fly swatter dahil maingay at nakaka-irritate ang kahambugan eh wala namang binatbat. Pero syempre desperado na ito si Chiz at kailangan eh may makapitan na naman dahil nga tinataboy na, kaya nagkaron ng ideya na hudasin si Roxas at nagsulong si Chiz ng Noy-Bi at kinagat naman ng mga Aquino Bwitches dahil may pinagsamahan kila Binay at galit kay Korina, yun nahudas na naman ni Chiz. Panalo si Binay kaya lakas ni Chiz at gustong maging VP ni Binay, pero noong nong tumakbo si Poe eh naamoy na naman ni Chiz na since may pinagsamahan na sila ni FPJ na hinudas din ni Chiz eh sabit na sa winner at parang tumaya long term para naman baka maging VP ni Poe kung may mangyari kay Binay. Ngayong mabaho na si Binay at siguradong talunan na, eh hinudas na rin ni Chiz si Binay at kumukuntra na at nilaglag pa para sa survival din ni Chiz. Ngayon bale kapit-tuko sya kay Poe kasi pag naging Presidente si Poe eh Senate President sya pag nag-coup sa Senate yung mga alipores ni Erap. Pag naging VP naman si Poe eh panalo pa rin si Chiz dahil sa 2022 eh baka sya na ang VP ni Poe kasi may say na si Poe sa ticket sa panahong yon.

          Pero wary din si Poe kasi alam nya kung pano kahudas ito si Chiz kaya gino-goodtime nya si Chiz na preferred VP nya ito sa ngayon kahit alam ni Poe na di mangyayari yun dahil di naman si Poe ang magdedesisyon dahil ride lang si Poe sa Admin ni Aquino at sa machinery ng LP.

          Still Roxas-Poe ang current standing, pag may bagong development eh share ko na lang later. Ang concentration ngayon eh yung partial report ng Senado para sa kabaong ni Binay at pagkatapos noon eh labo-labo na an alignment sa mga partido. Abangan nyo ang balimbingan sa buwan ng Hulyo.

        • Mam/sir @pelang, ang ibig pong sabihin ng “malukluk” mailagay sa puesto o lugar.
          Pasensya @parekoy, nakialam ako ng sagot hehehhe.excited si manang sumali sa usapan.

        • Thanks. I never like escudero either. He is not only opportunist bit his name carry the stigma of his corrupt father, a former minister of macoy. What a freightening scenario. We should support then the mar-poe if ever.

        • @pelang,

          Ang tingin o pananaw ng ilan ay kapag Poe-Escudero ang nanalong P-VP…

          Ito rin ay panalo para kay Binay and the rest.

        • Si Poe ang may gusto at pumili kay Escudero. Birds of same feather. Pareho kasi silang friends ni Binay, Erap, Ongpin. Ang tatay ni Escudero at Ongpin ay kabilang sa tribu ni Makoy. Si Poe ay hindi alam o ayaw aminin ang nanay at tatay. Totoo rin kaya na si Poe at Escudero ay nabibilang sa isang tribu?

  13. Never actually been away from RR’s CPM amid winds and high water Been reading continuously for some time now always it’s been a flowing river of ideas with lots of fresh flower lilies with few strays of flip flops and discarded plastics and floating old shoes that anyway I like again to throw and float in this river my own debris of whatever.

    I have read lots here of analysis of genius but not once of a truly legalese solution to the Binay super riddle of a puzzle so I like to post one by way of a concocted parable .

    The Little Registrar and the President’s Daughter

    Once upon a time in a country between an ocean and a sea in a University which have produced political leaders despised for graft and corruption there was this little lady registrar so humble and low profile like a custodial worker students won’t recognize even when they bumped into her in the college hallways. There was this graduating student bright daughter of the nation’s strongman leader purported b.s. graduate of an overseas university of Einsteinian fame. The little Registrar having no record of prerequisite degree did the right thing by not including the daughter’s name in the list of candidates for graduation. Even Mohammed or his Mountain or the Gods of the University Council can not approve or disapprove a name that is not there. And so it came to pass the University commencement exercises came and went and the daughter did not graduate.

    The COMELEC and the Presidential Candidate

    Once upon a time in a country by the tumult of China Sea, the intellectuals with brimming common sense, wonders no more why voters can not elect a candidate who is not in the ballot.

    And so it came to pass the candidate came to file, accompanied by journalists and photographers his application for candidacy to the presidency, but the little humble courageous receiving clerk said: Sorry sir, I can not accept I am and all the other clerks were directed not accept until Sir the courts have cleared you of all the cases filed against you. And so it came to pass the candidate went to court which hurriedly decided and commanded COMELEC to accept and when the Commissioners went to deliberate on the candidates, there was silence and no acceptance was sent to the candidate, again the candidate went to court until time run out and on election day while the case was still in court, there was no name of the candidate in the ballot for a vote. And so it came to pass a country found its soul at last by just doing right with an applicant candidate. .

    • Before it will come to pass, Manung Jusip wants to know…to be clarified…what is/are the exclusion criterion/criteria written in the ‘bible’ an aspiring candidate to an elective office has to contend with before seeing his/her name printed on the ballot?

      • I won’t say even if I know, COMELEC people and CPM lawyers should know though I read the news and wondering why lawyers also don’t seem to know. There must be no reason eh because legal eagles not being a little registrar or a comelec clerk seem not to have thought of it..

      • I am rethinking now why write those many words when all I should have said: Why did CPM lawyers not think of disqualification and give us clueless their opinions about the NO and Yes or May be of acceptance of presidential candidacy. If there is really nothing to it, I will just forget it.

      • The candidate must TRUTHFULLY accomplish a Certificate of Candidacy for Senator, subscribe and swear upon it and submit same to COMELEC. The prospective candidate must declare under oath, among other requisites, that he or she is a NATURAL-BORN Filipino citizen.

        • This was the same line in the COC that brought FPJ to the SC. And this would be the same item that would bring Grace to the SC if she insisted to become president or vice president. But for a different result.

        • Thanks Rene- Ipil I hope this in part answers the query of Baycas under 18.1

          Pero bakit wala yatang title at saka number itong form na ito; wala bang form para sa kandidato for President at Vice- President; Ano ba ito Certificate o Application Form? bakit walang No. 18 sa form– I hereby swear upon my honor that I have not done any illegal campaigning before the prescribed period, that I am not a convicted or pardoned criminal? .

          Sa Google karanasan ng tao kahit anong tipahin may liwanag ang info, pero tinipa ko “Criteria for Exclusion of Candidacy for President of the Philippines” ayun halos 10 million results parang karayom hahanapin sa loob ng mandala ng palay kaya lalong lumabo ang isyu; pero tanong lang sa mga ama at anak ng saligan batas bakit walang provision no one shall be elected President of the Philippines who have been convicted or have pending administrative or a criminal cases in court? Bakit ? Bakit din wala yatang proceso para tanungin at harangin ang kandidatura ng isang di kanais-nais na kandidato? Dahil may recall naman matapos makaperwisyo?

          Sa isang libong dada ng mga eksperto bakit tila Malabo pa rin? Ano bang batas ang tanging ligtas sa pambobola? Sirit na: huwag magnakaw, huwag makiapid sa di asawa, huwag pumatay.

  14. @Parekoy and @Rene-Ipil

    Not my words but a comment from a recent article in Rappler about VP Binay.
    Just to show that we are all individuals and have our own opinions, good or bad. We are not necessarily right although we may believe that we are. Nothing wrong with self believe except when its forced down the throats of others. I’ll post the link as a comment.

    Duterte and Binay have been local chief executives for long, and have children in public office. Both began their political careers after EDSA ‘86, and both of them won their first elections in 1988. Both served under five Presidents since, and both have led local governments. Both have never lost an election.

    The comparison, however, ends there. Duterte has the distinction of having served as a Congressman in the House of Representatives, while Binay has not one day of service in either the lower house or the Senate. Binay, however, served in the Aquino cabinet and was one time chairman of the Metro Manila Development Authority. On this note, Duterte surpasses Binay due to the former’s legislative experience.

    A look at Binay’s Makati and Duterte’s Davao shows us a larger backdrop in comparing the two. Binay’s supposed success in Makati is clearly the result of having inherited it as the financial center of the country upon his assumption into office. He has just allowed it to continue. It cannot grow any further as a city. Duterte’s Davao, on the other hand, is a Southeast Asian success story almost similar to the rise of Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew.

    Both Davao and Singapore rose from violence and dirt into the clean, safe and economic powerhouse cities they are today.

    Regarding current challenges, Makati sees no need to produce food or ensure steady water supply, and to my knowledge, has no rebel fronts, NPA kutas or other forms of insurgency. There are no fisherfolk or lumads claiming ancestral domains. I wonder if Makati has a City Agriculture Office? As Makati Mayor and MMDA Chair, Binay has never had to deal with NPA rebels or other insurgents, and never felt the pressure to ensure stable food and water supply for his constituents. Davao, on the other hand, has 244,000 hectares in its territory, and almost 2 million residents compared to Makati’s half-million population in a dense 21 square kilometers or 2,157 hectares. Davao City is half the size and 3 times the population of Brunei Darussalam and a third the size of East Timor. It has the world’s largest Chinatown and is host to a kaleidoscope of cultures and faiths unseen in the rest of the country.

    Davao can feed, water and clothe itself with the coming 200 plus megawatts of power coming from hydroelectric power and other sources, and has a deep international water seaport and an international airport with direct trade with neighboring countries takes place. Davao is virtually a self-supporting country where almost a hundred Makatis can fit.

    Having limited experience, Metro Manila mayors like Binay are relegated to ensuring proper garbage collection (a task which many even fail to achieve), street lighting and beautification, and free entertainment every election day, everything else that gives life to its constituents is up to MMDA and Malacañang.

    Binay never had to deal with peace negotiations and release of captives from the hands of rebels. Duterte’s history, on the other hand, is filled with the successful negotiation of released captives. Score another for Duterte.

    • Duterte projected his peace in order success through salvaging of petty criminals and paying NPA.

      His success in Davao City is not portable in the National level for he does not have the chops like Aquino to go after hardened criminals of the likes of Corona, Enrile, Jinggoy, Bong, and now Binay(though aquino was reluctant at first but later convinced by the instigators LP Balay Faction of Drilon-the Talleyrand of the Philippines, Abad, Cesar Purisima, and Mar Roxas).

      Duterte does not have the organization and within LP is a pariah for he is just another Chavit Singson, Mangugudatu, Ampatuans and other notorious warlords who rule in fear and intimidation. Even the Oligarchs who formed as virtual government through campaign finance and the Manila entrenched cabal of Mafiosis know that a Duterte Presidencyis bad for the country, business, and reforms which are inclusive.

      Duterte is no Lee Kuan Yew and so as Binay. We don’t have Lee Kuan Yew in thePhilippines since almost 99 percent of our leaders lack patriotism and nationalism. They just love themselves and their family and if by enriching themselves they happened to enrich the coffers of the Philipoines(which is remote) or any benefits that trickle down to us Filipinos derive from their corrupt schemes are pure accidental and originally not even considered in their schemes and incidental.

      Duterte’s inclusion in the surveys is a trial balloon. Lacson did that before and made a lot of campaign money to divide the votes then. Duterte has nothing to lose but more to gain if by some stroke of luck that stars aligned and a party field him for his attempt for the prize. He will surely lose but comes out a winner financially and politically through horsetrading in connivance withanother candidate to divide the vote.

      Just want to share with you another unreliable info. AMLC has the dossiers of every influential politician. Now imagine whoever controls that info controls the dynamics of the coordination and collaboration to ensure their candidate wins where every important factor considered so the illusion of winning fairly is also ensured.

      By removing Binay in the picture or among viable contenders, LP has already laid the predicate that the 2016 elections is an open field and nobody’s game. LP candidate, Roxas will win, and LPs only problem now is how to convince the Filipinos that Roxas wins fairly.

      • Parekoy, re your Post 17.2 (May 18, 2015 at 12:25 am) and Post 16.1 (May 18, 2015 at 12:46 am) —

        In short, a systems view with a no-holds-barred plan and implementing actions with a J. Edgar Hoover type at AMLC with dossiers ala Jolly Old Santa Claus — who knows who’s naughty or nice; who knows when you’ve been bad or good.

        “Hmm” as Raissa is wont to write as one of her infrequent reactions and which I copy, begging her permission. (May have misspelt it: 2 h’s and 2 m’s or is it 3 m’s — too lazy to search the archive.)

        • Parekoy seems not to have visited Davao City to make negative comments about Duterte’s bailiwick.

          Davao city is the cleanest, most peaceful, disciplined, relatively drug & crime free big city as compared to Makati or the whole of metro manila combined – and these could be attributed to the kind of leadership of Duterte with overwhelming acceptance of its inhabitants, particularly the business and student sectors.

          Where can you find a big city where you can walk alone late at night without fear of being molested or robbed except in Davao City.

          The continuity of Dutertes kind of leadership is assured with his children waiting for their turn.

  15. I stand by the survey done by Pulse Asia and SWS. They are reputable political survey firms that employ scientific methodologies and produce results which are open to scrutiny of the public. So far nobody has been able to demolish the credibility of their latest surveys.

    Based on the PA survey on presidentiables last March, this was the result:
    Binay – 39%
    Poe – 14%
    Duterte – 12%
    Roxas 4%

    In SWS survey also in March:
    Binay 36%
    Poe – 31%
    Duterte – 15%
    Roxas – 15%

    In my book Binay is a goner. Similar with Trillanes’ belief and due to historical and contemporary events, Binay would not and could not run for president. Poe is disqualified to run for president because she is not a natural-born Filipino citizen. As in the case of FPJ the citizenship of Grace would be questioned if she files a certificate of candidacy as president, declaring under oath that she is a natural-born Filipino citizen. But the outcome would not be the same.

    The SC found FPJ as a natural-born Filipino citizen because his father, Fernando Poe, Sr., was a Filipino citizen. In the case of Grace, she could not be a natural-born Filipino citizen because she was a foundling. And she got her Filipino citizenship by adoption. The SC in the FPJ case declared that ONLY jus sanguinis or blood relationship could qualify a person to being a natural-born citizen of the Philippines.

    Binay and Poe are out. So that Duterte and Roxas are viable to contest the presidency. Again, historical and contemporary events point to an overwhelming Duterte win over Roxas. In the PA survey Duterte is ahead of Roxas by a mile. But history tells that in the November 2014 SWS survey Roxas got 19% while Duterte had a measly 5%. That was history.

    In the latest SWS survey in March, Duterte jumped by 10% to 15% while Roxas slid down by 4% to a tie with Duterte at 15%. Meaning that it is most probable that in the next survey by both PA and SWS, Duterte would pole vault and soar while Roxas would continue to a downward course.

    It is notable that in the last PA survey, Duterte was ahead by a big margin over all the other presidentiables with 34% in Mindanao. Overall topnotcher Binay was a distant second with 22%. Roxas got 1% in Mindanao. And even in the home turf of Roxas in the Visayas, Duterte had higher score than Roxas with 9% and 8%, respectively.

    The numbers point clearly to Duterte as the next president. Statistics won’t lie.

    • Statistics lie especially if that is done in the Philippines.

      Pulse Asia and SWS are historically used as tools to fool the Filipinos.

      With the recent SC decision on disclosures of the sponsors of political surveys, the poll industry’s lucrative business is affected and needs internal reforms lest they will just bevome more irrelevant. SC with Carpio’s vision of regaining its lost power is determined to render landmark decisions which will ensure Carpio’s legacy and remains in the annals of Philippine history as the best SC justice and the person who is respected and theone with the most lasting legacy. But make no mistake, he will accommodate grey area decisions which are badly needed of our times to attain and justify the end.

      Those who are relying on surveys are greatly uninformed for surveys is only a minor factor in the real Political process in the Philippines. Organization, incumbency, Comelec Control, Media Control, and the perception of integrity also completes the whole pictue of winnability.

      Discussing surveys as ultimate barometer is irresponsible and does not provide the readers with a balanced analysis.

    • Poe is a natural born citizen of the Philipines. In relation to the incorporation clause of the Philippine Constitution, please refer to Article II of the UN convention on reduction of statelessnes, to wit: “A foundling found in the territory of a Contracting State shall, in the absence of proof to the contrary, be considered to have been born within that territory of parents possessing the nationality of that State.”

      • I have already discussed the ramifications of Article 2 of the 1961 Convention on Reduction of Statelessness in this link.

        http://raissarobles.com/2015/05/11/hotmanila-takes-a-closer-look-at-chinas-new-islands-in-the-south-china-west-philippine-sea/comment-page-1/#comment-296605

        By the 1961 Convention Grace maybe considered a Filipino citizen but NOT natural-born due to the doctrine of jus sanguinis or blood relationship controlling Philippine citizenship.

        • By the UN Convention of 1961 a foundling found in the US shall be considered a natural-born US citizen due to principle of jus soli or place of birth followed in the US. But a foundling found in the Philippines shall be considered a Filipino citizen but NOT natural-born due to the jus sanguinis doctrine. This was explained by the Supreme Court in the FPJ case.

        • I don’t think that was explained in Tecson. A foundling or the UN Convention was never discussed let alone mentioned in Tecson. I think you just formed your own opinion based on a portion of statement in Tecson which has no doctrinal value.

        • This what the SC declared in Tecson or FPJ case:

          ” Through its history, four modes of acquiring citizenship – naturalization, jus soli, res judicata and jus sanguinis[28] had been in vogue. Only two, i.e., jus soli and jus sanguinis, could qualify a person to being a natural-born citizen of the Philippines. Jus soli, per Roa vs. Collector of Customs[29] (1912), did not last long. With the adoption of the 1935 Constitution and the reversal of Roa in Tan Chong vs. Secretary of Labor[30] (1947), jus sanguinis or blood relationship would now become the primary basis of citizenship by birth.”

          ONLY jus sanguinis mode could qualify a person to being a natura-born citizen of the Philippines. NOT by jus soli or place of birth, NOT by naturalization, NOT by adoption or a judicial decree and much less, NOT by legal fiction or convention.

      • Aha!

        I almost missed this…

        I like ‘court battles.’

        …preview to Poe’s woes when her citizenship will finally be questioned…

    • Rene,

      Small item; does not detract in the thrust of your comment but I am making it to correct the record here at CPM.

      The March 2015 Pulse Asia survey result gave the number 29 and not 39 for Binay.

      Also another item — which again does not detract from the thrust of your comment. With my correction of Binay’s PA number (29); correction of the latter SWS numbers for bloat we spoke about (because of max 3 names allowed); then using these corrected numbers and the first set from PA, I averaged the two sets and got:

      Binay 26.5%
      Poe – 17.5%
      Duterte – 11%
      Roxas – 7%