Unless the Senate is crudely bypassed by the House and the Supreme Court OKs it
Analysis by Raïssa Robles
Charter change can be stopped dead on its tracks by a “Magnificent Seven” in the Senate, Christian Monsod told me.
Monsod, who helped frame the 1987 Constitution, explained that seven is the required number of senators to refuse to back charter change.
From what I have personally seen of Senate procedures, the seven senators can show their rejection of cha-cha in three ways. First, by casting a NO VOTE. Second, by being present but simply NOT CASTING A VOTE or SAYING THEY ABSTAIN FROM VOTING. And third, by being absent during the voting.
It’s because any charter change move through Congress has to hurdle the constitutional requirement of a 3/4 vote.
Since this section of the 1987 Constitution has never been actually used, the ordinary interpretation of a 3/4 vote is hotly contested.
However, no less than the head and three members of the Consultative Committee that cobbled together President Rodrigo Duterte’s draft Federal Constitution have recently affirmed the ordinary interpretation of this section.
In a Senate hearing this week on the draft #FedCon, no less than retired Chief Justice Reynato Puno—the #FedCon head—affirmed that the 3/4 vote means the Lower House and the Senate voting 3/4 separately as two bodies and not as a whole.
In the same hearing chaired by Senator Francis Pangilinan (@kikopangilinan on Twitter), former Senate President Aquilino Pimentel, Jr., Prof. Edmund Tayao and Prof. Julio Teehankee all separately agreed with Justice Puno’s interpretation of the 1987 Constitution on cha-cha voting.
Assuming they are all correct, 3/4 vote in the Senate means that cha-cha needs 18 YES VOTES.
However, there is a wrinkle. There are now only 23 senators since Alan Peter Cayetano resigned to become foreign secretary. The Constitution is not clear whether 3/4 vote means 3/4 of all the current members ( which is 23) or 3/4 of the 24-member Senate.
If it is 3/4 of 23 existing members, then cha-cha only needs 17 votes. But if it is 3/4 of 24 members, cha-cha needs 18 votes.
Let us just assume, for the sake of argument, that the #FedCon cha-cha needs 17 votes because there are only 23 senators.
In order to stop cha-cha, the number of YES votes should not reach 17 but only 16.
That means, with 23 members of the Senate, SEVEN SENATORS should not cast a YES VOTE.
This is why Monsod called these senators THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN. Monsod was probably inspired by a 1960s western movie with that title.
Let’s see now whether Duterte can gather 17 votes in the Senate for his #FedCon.
From analysis. I THINK NOT.
At the moment, Duterte can probably rely on 10 senators to vote YES to his cha-cha.
- Joel Villanueva
- Senate President Vicente Sotto III
- Richard Gordon
- Miguel Zubiri
- Manny Pacquiao
- Sherwin Gatchalian
- Francis Escudero
- Gregorio Honasan
- Loren Legarda
- Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III
Although three other senators are Duterte allies, we can’t be sure yet if they would vote YES since they are up for reelection next year. Should they win, any charter change could cut their fresh six-year terms to only three years. Who would want to pay for an expensive nationwide campaign and only get three years in office?
They might agree, though, if the Duterte camp offers to foot the bill for their reelection:
- Nancy Binay
- Joseph Victor Ejercito
- Cynthia Villar
So Duterte can get 13.
How about the FOUR MORE VOTES he needs?
Let’s do some math.
Out of the remaining 10 senators, SIX would probably not vote yes since they are with the political opposition. The #dilawan, as they are insultingly called by officials of the Presidential Communications Office:
- Senate Minority Floor Leader Franklin Drilon
- Francis Pangilinan
- Risa Hontiveros
- Paolo “Bam” Aquino IV
- Antonio Trillanes
- Leila de Lima
Ordinarily, the jailed Senator de Lima’s vote would not matter. Approving laws requires a senator to be present to cast a vote.
But in the case of cha-cha, by merely occupying a Senate post, De Lima is in effect casting a NO VOTE.
So that leaves Duterte shopping for votes from these four remaining senators:
- Panfilo Lacson
- Ralph Recto
- Edgardo Angara
- Grace Poe
But since he only has 13 votes so far and he needs FOUR MORE VOTES to reach the 17 votes required by the Constitution, this means ALL FOUR REMAINING SENATORS have to VOTE YES to #FedCon.
My years of covering Philippine politics have shown me that nothing is impossible.
As Monsod said, it is all up to The Magnificent Seven to stop cha-cha. This means, only one of the remaining four can complete the seven needed to stop cha-cha.
However, the House might just go ahead with cha-cha and crudely say that the Constitution should be interpreted as both congressional bodies voting JOINTLY instead of the separately.
And the Supreme Court might affirm that interpretation.
In that case, anything goes.
If, as some think, charter change is just a disguise for a crude coup setting up a dictatorship, then history has shown that would-be dictators aren’t usually stopped by trifling things such as legal niceties.
3/4 of 23 is 17.25. Technically, 17 is not enough, which is less than 75%.
Kaya lang, we can’t have 17 senators + 1/4 of a senator.
So I just rounded it off generously.
But you are right.
Still, this section is up for interpretatiom by the Supreme Court.
If a storm’s blowing the wind, PERHAPS the little speaker SCREAMING LADY could vote and be counted 1/4. LOL
I hope i am not speaking too soon. But with the election of GMA as the new Speaker of the House of Representatives, we can count out the votes of Poe, Lacson and Ejercito in favor of Charter Change. It would probably be a blessing im disguise.
Everyone of them is in disguise to begin with. I didn’t know SARA is a powerhouse local mayora. She thinks she can control the Davao region or whatever region it is in fed govt. and all of congress can bow to her one phone call away from Davao, wow she must be a tougher cookie than DUTZ.
I will forever remember the screaming picture of GLORIA in red.. luckily she’s high up in the podium otherwise nobody notices her. Really , she’s small but terrible and cunning, she’s used to the cheating game.Now, looking at sickly colored grayish DUTZ,, the table has turned for ATE GLO is glowing in health. Maybe the fresh air outside the hospital is good and Dutz need to eat more healthy KETO DURIAN.
Little did the people of Bunawan Creek in Agusan del Sur know that their famous and once proclaimed as the biggest saltwater crocodile named Lolong has a father who is naturally bigger – but unconfirmed reports from fishermen and inhabitants of the area keep on sighting a much bigger one and rumors abound that Lolong could possibly had a father, which they called now as Lolong Sr., which is very active and may roam the rivers of the country soon
CHINA STAGED A POLITICAL COUP D’ETAT AND DUTERTE APPEARED TO BE BLIND-SIDED
Duterte has been friendly with China and dancing to her music but Chinese officials are pragmatic people. They know that Duterte is ageing, in poor health, and has a volatile temperament that makes him an unreliable ally.
Thus China has to undertake measures to ensure that what Duterte has yielded to advance China’s self-interest will not be undone by his successor, and what better way to do this than to support and advance the political ambition of Chinese-friendly Gloria Macapagal Arroyo who has just been elected House Speaker. (Does explain why Duterte appeared dejected during his SONA?)
If there is anything positive that may come out of this is that Arroyo’s political ambition will surely collide with that of Bongbong Marcos, both are very ambitious, and this may provide a badly-needed opening for the opposition to offer a political alternative.
Anyone who read Grace’s Poe’s acerbic comment on Arroyo’s election, err coup, as new House Speaker is a clear sign that the line has been drawn in the sand between Marcos and Arroyo. I think most people know whose side Grace Poe is.
According to Rapper:
‘ Poe said it is disheartening that Arroyo, who had been accused of corruption and fraud during her presidency from 2001 to 2010, is again holding one of the top positions in the country.
“Hindi ko na siguro kailangang ipaalala sa ating mga kababayan ang mga kaganapan nu’ng kanyang termino. Maraming akusasyon ng katiwalian at nakita natin kung paano ang nangyari sa kanyang pamamalakad,” Poe told reporters on Monday, July 23, after President Rodrigo Duterte’s 3rd State of the Nation Address. ‘
I noticed that too, digong appear dejected at sona, sedated more like and medicated. magpa-medical yan prior to sona. medyo slurred ang part of his speech, no matter how hard he tried at phrasing. there were times when his tongue appeared heavy and rolled, words got rushed and bumped into another, dropping like text message out of sync. but compensating he did with forced intonation, words not important got over emphasized and the important words medyo whispered.
I think, grace poe owe it to her daddy and uphold his legacy. name pa naman ng daddy ang palaging ginagamit ni grace, her married name put on shelf and mothballed. not in grace’s best interest to presume that people remember the past. people just dont and they once forgot her dad and betrayed him to arroyo.
hello garci! if arroyo cheated sa election 2004, she can do so again and cheating na manan sa coming plebiscite, pushing for federalism. bong marcos just to give way to arroyo and maybe, play at being arroyo’s deputy prime minister to arroyo’s prime minister. bong marcos is good at 2nd fiddling.
the SONA speech was like from neutral to 4th gear…retarded ang run ng auto.
Yun kay Gloria was cruise-control…already running top-speed then CONTROL by DOUBLE-CROSS!
Nawala si PDUTZ ng vivo.
Yup. . . Gloria threat to PDUTZ. President under federal gov’t or Prime Minister with Executive Powers giving presidency ceremonial actions only.
But isn’t it that Gloria’s term ends next year 2019?
…unless some legal issue(s) crops up.
just juewating siya with it.
he he he
some legal issues vs gma is already moot and academic. noting that the new ombudsman is samuel martinez.
sorry… samuel martires pala ang bagong ombudsman
Who could be the Manchurian candidate?
Parekoy’s Ride on Quotetales
‘It is ironic that the vertically challenged kleptomaniac from Famfanga was able to steal the speakership in a breakneck speed without her wearing her customary neck brace!’
‘Duterte showed us that he could control his lips of spouting expletives but he could not control himself of spouting lies about our true state of the nation!’
‘No matter what propaganda the Duterte lying machine is bombarding the Filipinos the empty stomachs convinced the brain that the economy is indeed in the toilet!’
’50 shades of grey is Bobong Marcos favorite movie!’
‘Duterte and Bobong Marcos have a common favorite Pitbull pet named Calida, while Calida has his own dog named PET!’
‘While Nancy showed her sad emotions, for the graft cases her Dad and brother are facing, by wearing blue, C5 Villar showed her loyalty to Duterte by wearing fecal brown attire, which is the favorite of DuTae supporters!’
‘C5 Villar photobombed the pictorial of her notorious co-plunderers of our nation, our nation just wished that a real bomb was lobbed instead of Villar’s unli gripes!’
‘TRAIN adverse effects to worsening poverty is worse than a Dengue epidemic but Diokno borrowed Chin Chun Su Acosta’s medical degree and wrote a prescription to the suffering Filipinos to TRAIN them to only eat one meal a day!’
‘Filipinos surveyed agreed that Tambays should be executed in one condition: Prioritize the Tambays in the Cabinet and Congress!’
You can ride my Quotetales too!
the true state of the nation, dapat the true state of the province of china, ruled in hibernation from dabaw, him only going to imperialist manila when the menses allow, to grab some pasador, he, he, he. there are jobs not for women, and there are jobs not for men too, sabi ko.
gulat ako when c5-cynthia threw tantrum when her seat was taken over by others, at nag-walked out. gulat din po ako when c5-cynthia bumalik, though she could have upped the ante and sat or squat on the floor, and be right there on the fore of the picture, not aligning herself with a row, but a row onto herself. anyhow, brown looks good on sour-ish cynthia, that’s the color of bilirubin baga, the brownish color of feces after the bile’s bilirubin has done its job.
and I say cheer up to nancy, why be sad? many great men and women have gone to jail, and if nancy’s dad and brother follow suit kahit not so great sila, it’s not the end po. jail term fishes. and the binays will be like kings in jail, with many of those jailed continuing to do business and raking in lots of money. gma was jailed too, hospital arrested and now house speaker na, speaking and eating and plotting behind the scene, destabilized digong’s sona.
Marmee Cruz says
House in virtual standstill. Nobody seems to know what to do. Duterte waiting.
arroyo stole digong’s thunder! with billions spent on intel, the military on his side, the kapolisan on his side as well, both their joint intel report to digong, his highly paid staff all social media savvy, his paid trolls on the look out for everything and anything, bat hindi alam ni digong ang move ni gma? sleeping on the job hanggang ngayon pa ba siya? dont know how to interpret intel? blame roque, he only comes in after the fact., and blame bong go too.
3rd sona ni digong is best remembered for gma’s coup. the panty won, the panty liner lost, his deputy gwen garcia must be what, itchy? dali! grab money before gma can requisition all at may panibagong budget na naman.
Marmee Cruz says
Ruckus at House of Rep. GMA is now House Speaker. No audio in the House!
he he he
. . . the Mother of All Tapes is now Speaker of the Lower House – Gloria M. Arroyo.
Acc to the news of her oath-taking, NO SOUND was on so as not to have anybody TAPE it.
The May 22, 2009 news was: ‘Si (Samuel) Ong ang nagbitaw ng sikat na ngayong salita na “mother of all tapes,” nang ibunyag niya ang “Hello, Garci” tapes na naglalaman ng pag-uusap ng isang babae at lalaki para manipulahin umano ang resulta ng 2004 presidential elections.’
Hello Garci? Hello Garci! Ma’m OK na!
I’m sorry for the things I’ve done
I know that I’m the foolish one
Now, that I see who’s to blame
I’m so ashamed, I’m sorry
he he he
Na adjourned si Pantaleon Alvarez as Speaker of the House ng BIGLA!
. . . mother of all No Sound – with REAL TEKLO.
he he he
panty liner alvarez got replaced by a panty, he, he, he. both bottom feeders, both sippy-sippy pa rin kay digong. one bad down, another bad to the fore. susmagog! the house is murky at no bbl pa rin. never mess with imperialist manila where all things can happen faster than the speed of bullet, tanim bala! digong kasi was hiding in dabaw and knows very little of what is afoot in imperial manila. and if digong takes his eyes off imperial manila again, his federalism will kaput, bbl will kaput, and his comfort men will mourn the kaput.
teklo, uhm, yan baga ang tunay na (3rd) telco, soundless po, he, he, he, expect the unexpected, cheap telco ang gusto ni digong, accessible, easy and fast. with gma around, wonder tuloy ako if zte will resurrect, will the $20K dinner be the norm? I’m betting gma’s 1st grand duty will be to go overseas, and celebrate! celebrate! celebrate! and she’ll go to china and have joint exploration (again!) but with jin ping this time, mike arroyo on tow. hey, madam speaker, dont I know you from somewhere? mr china, you can bet your bottom peso, it’s me in the flesh! he, he, he. let’s party!
Marmee Cruz says
Speaker GMA just presided over in the House of Reps. Just wondering how much she spent to buy this position.
Are we in for a Jinggoy as senate prez or the other senators who are now facing charges in the Napoles scam?
What a sham of a legislative branch of government! But then, everything is a sham: the Executive, Judiciary and the Legislative! What did we do to deserve this? SIGH.
ano ang nagawa ko to deserve this? uhm, maybe it’s not about us, but about them. it’s them who are abusing big time, stealing and corrupting, wheeling and dealing, consorting and conniving with killers, protecting drug lords, accosting harmless tambays, deporting nuns who help better the lives of the poor; habang tayo naman are busy making a living, paying taxes and doing what citizens are doing, minding our own business and trying so hard to make ends meet.
it’s them, not us, they’re shameless and very good in letting us be fall guys and taking the blame, what have we done to deserve this? and thus pointing the finger at us, the consciousness and emphatic ones. what we should be asking is, do they deserve another chance of being in the govt again? do they deserve to become ministers in the federal republic of the phillipines? with us taxpayers footing the bills and expenses of their largese and folly. do they deserve to be given federalism?
I say, no way jose, they dont deserve to be given federalism.
and certainly, the taumbayan dont deserve the yokel of federalism.
I’m with you po, eduardo guarin. senators as well as ourselves should all reject cha-cha. this chat-chat of digong’s making is all for raising more taxes, more kahirapan sa taumbayan, prices of goods, commodities and services ay tataas din po. we cannot afford federalism, walang pondo, e. barely any money left in the national kitty. and all digong has on offer is pledges a plenty, promises of better life, unimaginable riches and wealth. parang lover na manunoyo that promises everything, and then iniwan ang nabuntisan to face life of misery, alone and with a kid to feed, no job and no future.
if we must have cha-cha we can do that later, and not now with this buang in situ on the loose, victimizing all with his train law.
we need a change of government, not change the constitution. so many problems, floods that last days and weeks, many unsolved killings, etc. if these people in the govt cannot solve problems now, they’re not likely to solve problems in the future, federalism or no.
but one thing we can be sure of: under federalism there will be more expenses to come, the burden shouldered by taxpayers. ofws just have to work harder and send more money back home, gotta break their backs working. and that makes for shorter life.
senators, save pinas! stick to democracy! no to federalism!
‘Less than one in 10 Filipinos want efforts to go into Charter change, while focus on federalism concerns only as much as 10 percent of citizens, the survey shows.’
As I always realized before politicos et. al., wants to change the 1987 Consti in a manner always suspect to be hurriedly done disregarding vital good provisions.
Congress – LH never bothered to enact a law against dynasty. We cannot trust LH lawmakers. Never Never Never.
Now, with federalism with more reason we cannot trust them not only re dynasties. With Regions etc. to have separate power to TAX, there will be more dynasties in public office for public MONEY to rob.
The name: Dynasty Unlimited, Incorporated PH. Unregistered with the SEC.
Raissa, pls I just want o share this link , not wishing to derail your thread.
Who knows that help is already springing forth for all humanity? I pray this is so, there is GOD and he is not stupid. ^!^ wink,
TAKE CARE, YOU BRAVE LADY IS GETTING TOO MUCH ABUSE, MAY GOD ALWAYS SHIELD YOU FROM HARM.
the buang in situ thinks god is stupid, not understanding kasi yan about the mysteries of life, the wonders of the universe, the interplay and relationships of being, simple lang kasi ang isip niyan at reliant on fentanyl pa, he, he, he.
nagpa-health check kuno yan prior to sona, ginaya si pacyaw, both nagpa-health check prior to important event. may kabag ng husto! kinakabahan sa daming napatay kasi. kinakabahan pa more, methink, of the federalism hell he’s going to impose on the nation.
A good mental exercise Ma’m RAISSA. ANYTHING GOES1.
PDutz does not want to ITCH [ not in a Barong Tagalog ] more in this Cha-Cha. So
ANYTHING GOESitch-2 if he cannot have 17 senatorial votes. He declares a revolutionary government. No more further itch.
ANYTHING GOESitch-3. Senators Binay, Ejercito & Villar will have to think for voting Yes very carefully because under a federal gov’t only TWO senators for NCR as a region will be allowed by Yr 2022 elections? They will toss the Kaldero or coin if they like, for that.So voting NO all of them is safe.
So far, this goes for more itches. More itch to come from here.
Very good observation, Leona.
You are right. Binay, Ejercito and Villar will be affected by the draft charter.
so much itch, leona, they’ll be scratching themselves raw! the buang in situ and cohorts, the wannabe federal ministers, the hopeful to be undersecretaries, the deputies on the wing, all in pruritus (exreme itch).
no one wants to be saddled with troublesome regions. regional federal chiefs would just have to unload troubles by declaring citizens personas non grata, banished from their regions, exiled to other regions only to live in no mans land. and if regions imposed their own death penalty, on top of death penalty already underway with many already killed, aba, itchy, itchy, coo yan, not cool!
though, who’s to say, there will be regions who’ll harbor undesirables, the tambays, drug addicts, etc, and they could well raid raid richer regions and go on stealing spree! got an itch to scratch. got fleas to export.
ANYTHING GOESitch4 many or more senators comes from Luzon’s provinces. Under federalism gov’t provinces to be known as ‘Regions’ entitled to 2 senators.
I am not sure for now who is/are these senators who will be affected of the RULE FOR 2 EACH REGION but some or many of them will be affected to this Rule. There are 23 actual senators. Some will be OUT some will share with others – for 67 Regions?
The math exercise will be so fluid for the federal SENATE to the detriment of the 1987
Senate. We will see who is/are the senators with a spine to oppose federal Cha-Cha.
If I am one of the 23 senators and the 22 others are my CLONES, all of us NO vote to Cha-Cha!
If there is a spine for each of the 10, the 3, the 4 and the 6 as mathed by Raissa, these TWENTY-THREE (23) senators should unite to oppose federalism now as some of them could be OUT OF WORK in Year 2022 elections. To be a senator of a Region rather than a senator under the 1987 Senate is a big difference.
Think about it now senators! Do it much later under a much better atmosphere. As noted by arc: Do Not Be Buang!
And from this mental exercise alone. we could see that if anything goes to pass, the regional states are under the political allies of the DO30 LEADERSHIP as we can clearly see from the lineup of senators voting for this change. I don’t think the country is large enough to adopt this kind of gov’t unless the motive is for installing the Marcos for central govt and power to smaller local states to the DU30 allies and to himself for he is only good at local governing as in the Davao state.
Realizing the movie, RUSH HOUR of Jackie Chan investigating local crimes then being stopped by the FBI to continue investigation because some powers are divided between the central and the local govt for there was a clash of power between the central and local. It was trivialized because it happens in this kind of gov’t.
It is unfortunate that the people don’t know what this is all about, it is about the activities of the govt affecting them that even PACMAN does not have any clue what he is voting for. He seems to be a parrot and a horse to be reigned in, only prepared for a fight in a race. Now with the blessing of Do30 , he will be retiring and prop up to govern one of the regions. Suddenly he disclosed his heart ailment. What a choice for DO30 to have a docile PACMAN IN THE SENATE BUT A TIGER ON THE RING.
So, who will be the HERO to complete the MAGIC 8 in this RUSH HOUR… TO DOOM?
Something triggered my mind, I do wish there is a PH “QANON” like persona to help the Filipinos for a divine change in the country.
Again, who will be this hidden savior to a bloodless organized transition to help the people in this hour of doom? O is s(he) an instrument to doom?
PEOPLE, what are you waiting for? What if The MAGNIFICENT 8 IS JUST WAITING for you TO MOVE? Have no fear! Pity the children. Even if they are stepping into the luxury malls, they’ve been eating trash.
God help you :(
EH,errr, I mean magnitude intensity 7 lols .Excuse ang LOLA NYO. lol
eduardo guarin says
i appeal to all senators, not only to the magnificent seven, to reject cha-cha. the existing constitution is there to unite us.